Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Middles, KY

UPDATE
Issued at 836 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2025

No major changes to the grids aside from loading in the latest surface obs and adjusted the trends through the afternoon. Morning text and radio products have been updated to reflect the changes.
Grids have been saved and sent.

UPDATE Issued at 1155 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 745 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2025

23Z sfc analysis shows low pressure off to the northeast and this is still keeping CAA going over the area on west to northwest of 5 to 10 mph with occasional higher gusts. It is also keeping a cu field around at about 5k feet agl along with a couple of radar returns in the form of sprinkles. Currently temperatures are running in the mid 60s north to the lower 70s in the south.
Meanwhile, dewpoints are generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids and touch up the potential for valley fog through the night. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 258 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2025

The latest surface analysis from across the eastern CONUS has a surface low working across the Ohio Valley. Extending from this occluding surface low is a warm front that's oriented along the eastern seaboard. The trailing cold front is slowly moving through eastern Kentucky. To the west, surface high pressure is building into the region but our next weather maker is slowly moving off the southern High Plains into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Locally, lingering showers, in association with the cold front, are slowly moving across the eastern portions of the CWA into West Virginia. Behind the front, widespread low-level clouds are limiting heating and CAA behind the front are keeping temperatures in the mid to upper-60s.

Through the remainder of the day, the cold front will exit the CWA but with the parent surface low moving through Ohio and surface high pressure building in from the west, increased PGF surface winds are expected throughout the day. Those winds will slacken off toward the overnight but lingering cloud-cover, from the slow moving surface low, will remain overhead and will keep the area relatively warmer with lows falling into the upper-40s to low-50s.

Surface high pressure will continue to build into the area for Thursday leading to a dry and quiet day but windy conditions will continue throughout the day as the upper-level trough pivots through the Commonwealth. At the surface, two surface lows are forecast to Fujiwhara Effect over New England and when the westernmost surface low moves southeast toward the CWA, increasing showers and thunderstorms chances will exist overnight Thursday through the end of the period. Since there's limited instability, severe thunderstorms are not expected with the next round of thunderstorms.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2025

The forecast period will start with the forecast area on the backside of a departing cold front that's associated with a surface low that Fujiwhara-ing over New England. Lingering showers will taper off from northwest to southeast throughout the day. Surface high pressure will build behind the departing front but northwesterly flow behind the front will advect cooler temperatures into the region leading to slightly below average temperatures through the weekend.

A surface low that's been slowly meandering northeast out of the southern High Plains will finally arrive to the area late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. The warm front will lift through the area bringing increased shower and thunderstorm chances for late Saturday into Sunday. Zonal flow is forecast to develop early Sunday and linger into Monday which will provide very little movement in the upper-level pattern until a trough pulls the surface low out of the area for Monday afternoon. A second trough is progged to dive into the area late Monday night into Tuesday which will bring continued threat of showers and thunderstorms through the end of the forecast period.

Overall the period will be highlight by several passing waves that'll bring increased chances of showers and storms. Temperatures are forecast to be slightly below normal for this of year but pleasant in the low to mid-70s.

AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2025

Expect VFR conditions for the most part through this TAF period.
Westerly winds will gust into the low to mid 20 kt range today.

JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.