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FXUS63 KSGF 022329 AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 629 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Key Messages:

1. Above normal temperatures and dry until a storm system moves through late Tuesday night through Thursday.

2. Widespread rain showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday. Heavy rain will be possible along with a chance of localized excessive rain and flooding.

3. Cooler in the later portion of the week into the weekend.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Fairly amplified flow over the CONUS early this afternoon with a ridge axis over the central U.S. and upper low centered over Utah which was located within a larger scale trough over the great basin. Temperatures have once again risen into the mid 80s across the area early this afternoon with dew points in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Mild conditions will continue tonight with another warm day on Tuesday in advance of the next storm system. Highs on Tuesday are once again expected in the low to mid 80s, but an increase in cloud cover will keep temperatures slightly cooler than today and yesterday.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

As we head into Tuesday night, the upper trough will continue to eject energy east-northeastward over the central and northern plains and into the upper and mid Mississippi valley regions. A surface cold front will push onto our western doorstep.
Precipitable water values will increase into the 1.2" to 1.6" range which is getting into the 90th percentile and above for early October. The first round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to push into our western CWA during the night.

The main upper trough will still be to our west with additional upper jet energy expected to aid in developing surface low pressure along the frontal boundary on Wednesday into Wednesday night which will slow the progression of the cold front across the area. With the slow movement of the front and high PW values over the area, there will be some heavy rain and the potential of some excessive rainfall, especially over southern and particularly over southwest portions of the CWA. This area is highlighted in a WPC slight outlook for excessive rainfall.

Probabilistic forecasts showing 40-50% chance of at least 1.50" of rain over the southwestern portions of the CWA and was generally hinting at amounts of 2 to 3 inches of rain through the Tuesday night through Thursday timeframe.

Clouds and rainfall will keep temperatures cooler than we've seen in the past few days with highs Wednesday and Thursday generally in the 70s.

On Thursday night, the trough axis will begin to push to the east and a strong upper level jet streak in the back side of the trough will help to draw down much drier air and cooler air to the area.
Canadian high pressure will move in on Friday through the weekend which will bring highs into the low to mid 60s on Saturday and some upper 30s to mid 40s for lows Friday night into Saturday night. Some patchy frost will be possible in low lying areas in the eastern Ozarks, but it is not expected to be widespread at this time.

There should be a gradual warming trend beginning Sunday into Monday of next week as we begin to see height rises with the cold air mass shifting to the east.

The 8 to 14 day outlook shows a warmer than normal signal in the Oct 9th - 15th time frame.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Southerly winds will be breezy on Tuesday, especially at KSGF and KJLN.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

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