Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kissee Mills, MO

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

For the rest of this evening and tonight: The convection has developed and is so far staying just southeast of the CWA The southern CWA does have instability and a weakening cap, so will continue to watch for convective potential in that area. SPC analysis shows 2,500-3,000 J/kg of MLCAPE with around 50-100 J/kg of MLCIN and 50-60 kts of deep layer shear. Any convection outflow boundaries that can push north may quickly become strong to severe with large hail to the size of tennis balls and wind gusts up to 80 mph possible. The tornado threat is very low given unfavorable shear profiles. The overall severe threat will continue into this evening. It's possible that some additional convection (possibly strong to severe) develops near the southeastern CWA overnight, but expectation is for that to stay southeast of the area for the most part.

For Friday: The cold front that is moving through this afternoon will lift back north as a warm front in the morning as a mid level shortwave and left exit region of a 100-120 kt upper jet push into the area. Strong southerly flow (SW 850mb jet of 40-50 kts) will also push into the area, which will push warm, moist air into the area early in the day. A cold front will then sweep west to east through the area in the afternoon.

CAMs show convection initiating over the area as early as 8-10am Friday and quickly moving east of the area by mid-afternoon.
There is considerable uncertainty in details related to initiation and evolution, but confidence is high that we will see convection and generally expect it to be more widespread than some CAMs are showing given the impressive environment and multiple forcing mechanisms. Overall looks like the best coverage will be along and east of Highway 65.

The warm sector quickly destabilizes along and behind the warm front with 1,500-2,500 J/kg of MLCAPE expected over the entire warm sector and even high values of 2,500-3,500 J/kg south of I-44 per HRRR mean. 700-500mb lapse rates will be steep at 8-8.5 C/km. Deep layer shear will be 55-65 kts throughout the event.

Hazards: Very large hail potential exists given aforementioned parameters and RAP Large Hail Parameter values > 14. Advertising hail sizes up to softball. Environment will also be favorable for damaging winds up to 80 mph, especially if storms can form a cold pool and grow upscale as they move east. Tornadoes will be possible, especially over the eastern CWA where strong tornadoes may occur.

Depending on how the morning into mid-afternoon convection evolves, it's possible another round of convection could occur in the later afternoon and evening hours as the cold front moves through the southeastern CWA The severity and potential for this round is highly dependent on earlier convection, reducing confidence.

Friday night looks dry.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

Long term forecast remains on track with few changes.

Should see a break in the rain through much of the day on Saturday as the front remains south of the area. Another upper level low will then approach the region bringing showers and thunderstorms back across the region Saturday night through Tuesday. The front lifts back to the north Saturday night into Sunday and clusters of storms will likely develop along the front. There could be the potential for some strong to severe storms with large hail the main risk along with locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding Saturday night and Sunday. The models show the upper level low and front remaining east of the area on Monday, but it's possible storms develop to the west and move east into and through the area on Monday. The upper level trough and front should move through the region on Tuesday into Tuesday night bringing additional showers and thunderstorms to the region. There remains differences between the model members on the exact track and timing of the system early next week, but there could be the potential for additional severe weather somewhere across the region. Uncertainty remains therefore for on the exact details, so stay tuned for updates.

Some light rain main linger into Wednesday as the upper level trough moves through the region. Temperatures return to closer to normal for this time of year behind the front during the middle of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Medium-high confidence in VFR conditions prevailing through the entire TAF period. Main concern is for southwesterly to westerly winds between 14-00Z along and behind a fropa. Sustained winds of 15-20 kts and gusts up to 25-30 kts at times.

There is a low (<30%) chance for an isolated thunderstorm to develop within the vicinity of a TAF site between 14-18Z. If a storm were to impact a TAF site, very large hail, frequent lightning, strong downbursts, and reduced visibilities from heavy rainfall would all be possible hazards.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
MO...None.