Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kimberling City, MO

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 238 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Nighttime microphysics RGB satellite imagery has shown a low stratus deck expanding northward from Arkansas into central Missouri through the overnight hours. This low stratus has been progressively building down, causing brief visibility reductions to as low as 1/2 mile along the spine of the plateau. Winds have been gusting up to 25 mph and increasing as the night progresses, which is working against widespread dense fog development. Regardless, under this cloud deck ceilings are near the ground, so a misty fog can be expected to persist generally along and east of the Highway 13 corridor into the morning hours before dissipating as temperatures warm up.

Most of today's forecast will ride heavily on the development and evolution of cloud cover. Less cloud cover = more sunlight reaching and heating the ground, which will influence the following forecast elements of interest:

1. Temperatures: Will have help from strong warm air advection, with highs today expected in the low to mid-80s. Warmest temperatures furthest east, where there will be the most breaks in cloud cover during peak afternoon heating.

2. Boundary layer mixing: Overnight cloud cover trapped under the low-level inversion (see 00Z sounding) keep the nocturnal stable BL shallow, which will make it easier for entrainment to get the mixed layer going earlier in the day. As clouds become eroded from the top downwards due to dry air entrainment, the CIN that was built up from nocturnal stabilization will be overcome as air becomes negatively buoyant and sinks. This will work against the cap that is expected to hold convection off along the dryline this afternoon.

3. Winds: The more we warm, the windier it will get. Winds 15-25 mph and gusts up to 25-35 mph will be stronger with northwestward extent, where the pressure gradient associated with the strengthening low pressure system in the northern Plains will be tightest.

4. Convection/rain/storms: Our forcing for storms/convection is actually quite weak, with the dominant cold front staying well west of us today and the only synoptic dynamic forcing available being strong warm air advection. A dryline feature will be present this afternoon, but it's quite subtle with model progs only having ~5 degree difference in dew points from the west side to the east side of the boundary. However, models are starting to catch onto convergence along this boundary, which improves confidence that it will be strong enough to influence convective initiation. As mentioned above in #2, capping that would prevent the realization of MLCAPE 1500-2000+ J/kg could become minimal to none.

Expect initiation to occur near the dryline feature in areas of strongest warm advection on Monday afternoon, though coverage would be relatively scattered. Most areas will stay dry. Biggest threats with any storms that could become organized would be large hail and damaging winds, though increasing low-level SRH associated with a nocturnal low-level jet could help storms become more surface-based through the overnight hours.

Additional storms will form along the cold front to our west and reach the Four Corners region late tonight, which will persist and keep widespread rain chances (70-90%) in the forecast into Tuesday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 238 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

As the cold front arrives in our area Tuesday morning, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to come with it. The front will continue south through our area, but will be quite slow moving, and eventually stall near the Arkansas/Missouri border. The front will serve as a focal point for convection and heavy rainfall, with storms potentially training over the same areas. The boundary will remain generally in this same area through Wednesday, which will mean rainfall with training storms would fall over the same area.

Persistent rainfall brings the threat of flooding back into the spotlight, with the heaviest rain and highest flood risk expected to be positioned in far southwest Missouri on Tuesday and along the Arkansas/Missouri border on Wednesday. These areas are in a Moderate (level 2 of 4) Excessive Rainfall Risk from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. Between 2-4 inches of rain are expected along the axis of heaviest rainfall in southwest Missouri, and much of this rainfall would occur in heavy but shorter bursts, which would increase flash flooding concerns.

Additional factors to consider relating to flash flood potential includes already saturated soils and elevated streamflows, anomalously high PW values over the region, and the known vulnerability to flooding in the areas that will be heaviest- hit. A Flood Watch will more than likely be necessary in a future forecast package.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

A 3-5 kft cu field is developing and moving in from west to east and will be in place during the 18-01Z timeframe. Additionally, southerly winds will be breezy in the 15-25 kt range with gusts up to 25-35 kts through the same timeframe, slightly diminishing after 01Z.

After 06Z, the forecast becomes a bit uncertain. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage the later the period goes on, however, start time and duration is still an uncertainty with lots of differences in models. A decaying complex may move in from the SW during the 07-14Z timeframe (PROB30 for this timeframe). After 14Z, models converge on greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms along a cold front that will be across the area bringing variable winds (have included a TEMPO here).

Lastly, LLWS will be borderline 40 kts during the 06-12Z timeframe. Higher confidence in seeing values between 30-35 for most of the period.



SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
MO...None.