Sunrise 6:39 AM   Sunset 8:13 PM Moonrise 9:19 PM   Moonset 6:21 AM

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FXUS64 KOUN 251947 AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 247 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Overnight tonight, storms are expected to initiate east of Lubbock and move into far western north Texas. Large scale ascent with the approach of a mid-level wave, will help these storms to become more widespread into a line of storms. The northern extent of this line is still in question, but the most likely areas to be affected are locations south of I-40 and along and east of I-44.
The parameter space ahead of this line will continue to support damaging winds up 80 mph, and a few embedded QLCS mesovortices.
The line of storms is expected to move out of the area by the mid morning Friday. A dryline will be stalled west of I-35 throughout the day Friday. Although the mid-level forcing will be off to the east, with little inhibition, sufficient CAPE and shear, there will be a low chance for redevelopment Friday afternoon with all hazards possible.

Near critical fire weather conditions are expected across western Oklahoma as sustained winds of 15-20 mph and RHs in the teens will be likely behind the dryline.

Bunker

LONG TERM
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Saturday: Saturday still has the potential for significant severe weather across the entire area. Moisture return will move in quickly ahead of another advancing negatively-tilted mid-level trough. A dryline will once again sharpen across the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles/state line as a surface low deepens in southwest Kansas. There are still model uncertainties with the overall evolution of this system, however. Timing of the mid-level trough will greatly impact when the large scale ascent overspreads our area, and if convection can stick around Saturday morning, that will likely hamper convection later in the afternoon. A slower trough ejection (which is currently being shown by the NAM) and morning convection will limit severe potential, but if there is no morning convection and the timing of the wave coincides with peak heating, multiple rounds of significant severe weather will be expected will all hazards possible. Given the parameter space, there is even the chance that any morning convection that does form, may become severe. These mesoscale details will most likely not be realized until closer to the event, as globals models tend to do poorly with sub-synoptic scale details. In any of these scenarios, it is vital that you remain weather aware throughout the WHOLE day Saturday, even after sunset. Figure out your plan NOW, and make sure you are ready to act when a warning is issued.

By Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will continue to move out of the area with weaker flow aloft. Higher heights will move in by early next week, with a warm up into the 80s by Tuesday and low chances for thunderstorms. Rain and thunderstorm chances return during the middle parts of next week.

Bunker

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

MVFR to VFR conditions are expected through early evening. Then, severe thunderstorms expected to develop off a dryline and congeal into a squall line tonight. Most likely timing for KCSM, KLAW, KSPS would be 11PM to 3AM, KOKC/KOUN/KSWO/KPNC 2AM to 5AM, and KDUA 4 AM to 8 AM. There is a chance storms could impact KWWR, also, however this is less certain as storms could grow upscale after passing east of there. All hazards will be possible initially before transitioning to mainly a wind and tornado threat as it forms a squall line overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 64 82 65 77 / 80 20 0 90 Hobart OK 60 85 61 80 / 80 0 0 70 Wichita Falls TX 64 85 65 78 / 90 10 0 80 Gage OK 56 86 55 86 / 30 0 0 40 Ponca City OK 63 83 65 80 / 90 20 0 80 Durant OK 66 79 68 81 / 80 70 20 70

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
TX...None.

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