Friday, October23, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
McCord, OK

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:42AMSunset 6:42PM Friday October 23, 2020 10:39 PM CDT (03:39 UTC) Moonrise 2:00PMMoonset 11:59PM Illumination 48% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near McCord, OK
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location: 36.66, -97     debug


Area Discussion for - Norman, OK
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FXUS64 KOUN 240300 AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

. New UPDATE .

UPDATE. Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

The surge of clouds from eastern Kansas into north central Oklahoma continues to slowly expand westward. The observational trends suggest these clouds should persist longer overnight despite the insistence of most models to start to bring drier low- level air in. Have increased cloudiness in the forecast along these areas. With the increased cloudiness and less radiational cooling, temperatures in north central Oklahoma may not get quite as low as forecast. Right now am leaving the headlines as they are in case we do get some late cloud erosion and temperatures drop quickly before sunrise.

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 128 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

The main concern for tonight into early Saturday morning will be the potential for freezing temperatures across western and northern Oklahoma. Clouds have already eroding some across northwestern Oklahoma early this afternoon and this trend will continue to the south and east through the afternoon/early evening. The exception may be parts of southeastern Oklahoma. Winds are expected to become light late this evening/overnight, especially across northwest/west central Oklahoma. The plan is to convert a large part of the Freeze Watch to a warning and issue a Frost Advisory where confidence is not as high. Temperatures are expected to rebound into the 50s/lower 60s on Saturday with a south wind returning during the day. The wind will be a little breezy across western Oklahoma during the afternoon.

LONG TERM. (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 350 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

Temperatures will continue to warm Saturday night into Sunday morning. A strong cold front will begin entering into northwestern Oklahoma Sunday morning, and will move through the remainder of Oklahoma and western north Texas Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening. Models continue to indicate the general pattern of the upper-level longwave trough digging southward and developing a closed upper-level cyclone and a positively tilted trough through the region. Temperatures are expected to cool considerably, with freezing conditions through northwestern Oklahoma Monday morning and expanding through western north Texas and most of Oklahoma except for far southeastern Oklahoma.

Precipitation behind the cold front is expected to be widespread Monday and Tuesday due to isentropic lifting of decently moist air. Areas of enhanced heavier precipitation are possible with upper- level shortwaves ejected ahead of the upper-level cyclone to the west. A second round of precipitation will be likely with the passage of the upper-level cyclone and enhanced lift. Precipitation type will depend on the near-surface temperatures and the depth of the cold air moving in. With a large warm layer centered around 700mb preventing any snow, freezing rain/sleet will be the primary winter weather concern Monday and Tuesday as the freezing surface temperatures expand to the southeast. By the time the upper- level cyclone and more synoptic forcing arrives, surface temperatures will likely have recovered above freezing, and the dominant precipitation type will likely be rain.

Uncertainty with this event continues to be the timing of the upper-level cyclone closing off and progressing through the region. The GFS continues to be more progressive and moves through the region Wednesday into Thursday, while the ECMWF closes off the low further southwest before pushing through the region Thursday into Friday. With the ECMWF closing off the cyclone earlier and further to the west, this solution would enhance ridging in the region and would likely result in warmer surface temperatures and limiting the extent of any frozen precipitation. Temperature trends will be monitored closely, in particular as mid-range models become available.

Zwink

AVIATION. (00Z TAFS) Issued at 716 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2020

Skies have cleared over northwestern Oklahoma with the clearing gradually shifting south over western Oklahoma at least. However another band of stratus lingers across eastern Kansas into north central Oklahoma. Ceiling in north central Oklahoma are generally 030-040, but there are some MVFR ceilings lurking across the border in Kansas as close as KWLD, so some localized MVFR is certainly possible at KPNC and perhaps KSWO. Given trends in observational data showing a continued slight westward push of the edge of this cloud deck, will have these clouds in north central Oklahoma persist longer than the models would suggest.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Oklahoma City OK 34 56 45 65 / 0 0 0 10 Hobart OK 32 58 46 68 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 36 60 49 80 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 26 60 41 52 / 0 0 0 10 Ponca City OK 31 54 42 55 / 0 0 0 30 Durant OK 41 60 48 73 / 0 0 0 10

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OK . Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ004>024- 033>036.

Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ025>029-037- 038.

TX . Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ083.

Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ085.



SHORT TERM . 06 LONG TERM . 50 AVIATION . 26


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ponca City, Ponca City Municipal Airport, OK7 mi46 minNNE 1510.00 miOvercast43°F30°F60%1027.7 hPa
Blackwell-Tonkawa Municipal Airport, OK19 mi44 minN 1210.00 miOvercast43°F30°F61%1027.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPNC

Wind History from PNC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9N13N12
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1 day agoS12
G20
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G15
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2 days agoNE8NE8NE8E9NE7E7NE6NE8E11E7E9E8E6SE7S9SW12
G16
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G23

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Vance AFB, OK
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.