Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nash, OK

NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Reprieve from high impact weather potential has arrived across the area early this morning. The upper system that brought us severe weather on Monday continues to lift into the Missouri Valley/Ozarks early this morning. An attendant surface front has swept through two-thirds of the area at this hour, and is expected to be past all zones by daybreak.

The post-frontal airmass will offer pleasant/seasonable temperatures (upper-70s/low-80s) and dry surface weather today.
Gusty northwesterly winds will be on the downtrend throughout the day as well.

Ungar

SHORT TERM
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Mostly dry and warm weather will prevail during the period, with only very low chances (20-30%) for a few thunderstorms across southern Oklahoma and western-north Texas by Thursday afternoon and evening. The upstream upper pattern looks to be dominated by quasi-zonal flow into the midweek. Wednesday will be the warmest of the two days, as a low-level thermal axis builds eastward from the Southern High Plains. A few locations in far southwest Oklahoma and western-north Texas are likely to climb into the low-90s.

A frontal boundary, tied to a subtle/accelerating wave across the High Plains will push into the forecast area on Thursday. Widely scattered shower/thunderstorm development is expected along this feature into the late afternoon and evening timeframe. Very strong instability, steep lapse rates and sufficiently strong mid/upper- tropospheric flow may overlap in space and time long enough to promote concern for strong-to-severe thunderstorms across portions of southern Oklahoma and north Texas. Damaging wind gusts and hail would be the main concern with stronger thunderstorms on Thursday.

Ungar

LONG TERM
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through the late week and into upcoming weekend, especially for portions of central and eastern Oklahoma. While grand ensemble guidance depicts the upper air pattern returning towards a high-amplitude ridge across the central CONUS, signal exists for embedded systems to move across the region during the period. Warmer afternoons (80s to 90s) are currently forecast on Friday and Saturday, especially for the southwestern quadrant of the area. Daily afternoon into early morning precipitation chances appear on offer, especially for portions of central into eastern Oklahoma (given current forecast track of "stronger" embedded waves).

Given an influx of seasonable moisture and potential for the previously mentioned features to strengthen upper-level wind fields, severe weather chances will be closely monitored.

Ungar

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 455 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025

VFR conditions expected this TAF period. Some mid/high clouds will affect parts of the area this morning. Winds will continue to shift towards the NW as a cool front continues to move across the area this morning. Winds are expected to shift back towards the south this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Oklahoma City OK 80 57 87 58 / 0 0 0 10 Hobart OK 82 56 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 82 59 90 62 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 83 51 86 53 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 79 52 82 56 / 0 0 0 10 Durant OK 81 60 86 60 / 0 0 0 0

OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...None.
TX...None.