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FXUS66 KHNX 041736 AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1036 AM PDT Wed Oct 4 2023


SYNOPSIS
Warming trend continues over Central California as high pressure builds. Afternoon highs are forecast to be a couple degrees shy of record highs on Saturday. After this weekend, a cooling trend is forecast due to a trough of low pressure passing through the region.

DISCUSSION
Afternoon highs rise today compared to yesterday due to high pressure that is continuing to build over the Golden State.
Afternoon high probabilities for 90*F or higher are the following for the select locations across the San Joaquin Valley today:

Merced: 21% Madera: 21% Fresno: 31% Hanford: 26% Bakersfield: 51%

Ensemble guidance continues to show the ridge of high pressure building through the end of the work week, thus higher probabilities of at least 90*F as afternoon highs in the San Joaquin Valley. The peak of the warming trend is currently forecast to be on Saturday. Here are probabilities from the NBM of reaching or exceeding 95*F on Saturday for select locations across the San Joaquin Valley:

Merced: 21% Madera: 26% Fresno: 56% Hanford: 36% Bakersfield: 76%

After Saturday, ensemble guidance projects a trough of low pressure passing through the west coast, which weakens the ridge.
Afternoon highs are forecast to drop next week, with a cooling trend lasting through early next week. By Tuesday, NBM guidance has afternoon highs several degrees below average. Here are NBM probabilities for afternoon highs being 80*F or lower next Tuesday for select locations across the San Joaquin Valley:

Merced: 44% Madera: 39% Fresno: 44% Hanford: 34% Bakersfield: 44%


AVIATION
VFR conditions and light winds, generally less than 10 kts, are expected to prevail at all TAF sites through the forecast period.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ISSUED: 10/03/2023 14:59 EXPIRES: 10/04/2023 23:59 None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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San Joaquin Valley, CA,