Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mayfair, CA

KEY MESSAGES...
1. High pressure over the region will contribute to above normal temperatures by the middle of the week, leading to moderate heat risk across lower elevations. Drier air in place from this system will also lead to afternoon relative humidity values near 10 to 20 percent through much of the week.

2. Elevated west winds will occur through tonight across the Mojave Desert Slopes with a moderate to high chance in wind gusts over 40 mph.

DISCUSSION...
A weak trough is passing over the area with minimal moisture, though some higher clouds from this can be seen on satellite across portions of far Northern California. This will help keep temperatures near average today into Tuesday with highs in the mid 90s across the San Joaquin Valley. Diurnal northwest winds will occur each afternoon with gusts near 15 to 20 mph across much of the valley. West winds across Tehachapi Pass and Mojave Mountain desert slopes are currently gusting near 20 to 30 mph.
These winds will increase over the afternoon with NBM providing a 60-80 percent chance of seeing winds over 40 mph through tonight.

After the weak trough passes through the region on Tuesday, an area of high pressure to the south will start to amplify over the Desert Southwest. By Wednesday, NBM shows around a 25-50 percent chance of highs making it over 100 degrees across the Route 99 corridor from Bakersfield to Merced wit slightly higher chances across the Interstate 5 corridor. High temperatures on Thursday will be similar, as 850mb temps look to stay around 25C. There are some model differences though, as a trough moving into the region from the north is expected to impact the region later in the week. Depending on how fast this moves will contribute to Thursday's high temperatures, which may be slightly cooler if the trough moves fast enough. Confidence in a cooler forecast increases by Friday into the weekend as the trough moves through the region from the Pacific Northwest.
This will bring temperatures into the 80s across the valley and 50s/60s across the mountains. This will also lead to an increase in winds from the mountains to the desert slopes.

AVIATION
06Z Update:

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours across the Central California Interior.

FIRE WEATHER
Afternoon relative humidities will lower near 10 to 20 percent each day over the next week bringing elevated fire weather conditions to much of the region. Near critical fire weather conditions will occur across the Mojave Desert mountain slopes through tonight as wind gusts of 30-45 mph are expected. Winds are expected to weaken into Tuesday through Thursday.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ338.