Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Keeler, CA

DISCUSSION

In the wake of the departing trough that brought much cooler temperatures and windy conditions to the region on Friday, ridging has already started building in from the west. Mid-level and upper level moisture will maintain passing high clouds through the weekend, though increasing thicknesses will result in a warming trend that will produce a quick rebound in temperatures, with highs close to normal today, and around 8-10 degrees above normal Sunday through Tuesday. While winds will be noticeably lighter across most of the region today, lingering terrain-enhanced gusty northerly winds are expected through portions of the Lower Colorado River Valley, namely from near Laughlin-Bullhead City to Needles, where intermittent gusts to around 30-35 mph are expected through early afternoon. While the ridge axis will quickly shift eastward ahead of the next system taking shape off of the West Coast, the strength of the high pressure as well as the transition to southwesterly flow aloft will not only maintain the warming trend, but also allow for an uptick in winds Sunday into early next week, particularly across the Sierra and southwestern Great Basin.

Ensembles and cluster analyses remain in fairly good agreement regarding the evolution of the upper pattern, with the previously mentioned trough off of the West Coast moving inland early next week, gradually dampening and developing a subtle positive tilt as it swings across the Great Basin midweek. Precise timing of this system remains uncertain, though given its expected trajectory, the primary impacts expected across the region will be a return of gusty winds sometime around Tuesday, along with a sharp cool-down midweek.
Precipitation chances remain rather scant, ranging from around 10- 30% and focused generally over the Sierra and southern Great Basin, with the best chance to see precipitation over the higher terrain.
Snow levels are currently expected to drop from around 8500 feet to around 6500 feet as the trough translates eastward, though with QPF generally under 0.10" for most, impacts are expected to be minimal.
As this trough moves east and phases with another trough over the northern Plains late next week, ensembles indicate additional troughing off of the California Coast, which will largely keep temperatures in check late next week, capping highs near normal in the wake of the midweek system. Stay tuned.

AVIATION
For Harry Reid
For the 12Z Forecast Package
Light northwesterly winds will continue through mid-morning when winds will pick up and swing around to the northeast. Breezy northeasterly winds with 15 to 20 knot gusts continuing through the afternoon. Winds will become light and variable as they begin to transition to a more westerly direction during the early evening hours. Winds will remain light, favoring a westerly direction through the overnight period. VFR conditions will persist with high clouds aoa 15 kft increasing throughout the day.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California
For the 12Z Forecast Package
With the exception of the Colorado River Valley where winds will remain elevated through the overnight period with northerly winds gusting to around 20 to 30 knots, winds across the rest of the region will remain relatively light overnight with winds favoring typical, nocturnal directions. Breezy northerly winds will pick up across southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona with 15 to 25 knot gusts continuing through the afternoon before dropping off during the evening. Out in the western Mojave Desert, winds will favor typical diurnal directional trends with sustained speeds of 10 knots or less. Breezy southeasterly, up- valley winds will pick up in the Owens Valley late Saturday morning, continuing through the afternoon before dropping off overnight. VFR conditions will persist with high clouds aoa 12 kft increasing throughout the day.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.