Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Keeler, CA

DISCUSSION
Through Next Friday.

An extended stretch of relatively quiet and warm weather is expected for the Lower Great Basin and Mojave Desert through at least next Thursday. The only "active" weather to mention are breezy conditions today and tomorrow, specifically for the Colorado River Valley where Lake Wind Advisories are in effect.

A sharp upper level trough shifts southeast today placing the region in an area of increasing northerly flow, leading to dry conditions and breezy north winds today and tomorrow. The surface pressure gradient is not overly impressive and widespread gusts 20-30 mph gusts with stronger gusts due to terrain enhancement in the Colorado River Valley are expected. While Laughlin/Bullhead City may briefly see 45 MPH winds, northerly gusts in the Colorado River should remain around 30-35 MPH. Impacts to boating due to winds and building waves are expected on Lake Mohave and Lake Havasu and a Lake Wind Advisory is in effect through Saturday afternoon.

For the rest of the weekend and into next week, a building ridge and a Polar jet retreating northward will keep the storm track far away from the region. Guidance continues to show above normal upper level heights with this ridge as well as surface to 850mb temperature anomalies well above normal for this time of year. This translates to high temperatures in the 70s to low 80s and lows in the 50s generally for desert valleys. Cooler conditions expected for higher elevations but still above normal. A weak wave of energy passes through the ridge early next week; however sensible impacts to surface weather conditions will be minimal as a warm and dry airmass remains in place. Expect the ridge to re-strengthen over the Desert Southwest mid next week ahead of the next potential storm system.
Forecast confidence is fairly high through the period with strong agreement among ensemble and deterministic guidance.

Forecast confidence falls going into the following weekend as a strong trough approaches the west coast. Since this system is more than a week away, expect model disagreement and run to run inconsistencies this far out. While confidence is higher in an overall pattern change next weekend into the end of the month featuring troughing and possible chances for precipitation, confidence is lower on the exact details and evolution of that pattern.

AVIATION
For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Northwesterly winds around 8KT this evening will become light and variable overnight before shifting to the northeast around 8KT by late morning. Winds will follow typical daily directional patterns, shifting to the southwest after sunset and becoming light through the end of the forecast period. VFR conditions with clear skies will continue.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California
For the 06Z Forecast Package
Across the region tonight, winds for most will be northwesterly with some variability around 5-10KT before settling into daily directional patterns during the day on Saturday. The primary exceptions include KIFP and KEED in the Lower Colorado River Valley, where terrain-enhanced northerly winds will remain elevated and gusty for most of the forecast period. Gusts to 20-25KT will be common from KIFP to KEED, increasing to 25-30KT Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon. Gusts diminish quickly at KEED, but persist through the evening for KIFP. VFR conditions and clear skies will continue areawide.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.