Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Keeler, CA

DISCUSSION
through Sunday.

Scattered showers and storms persist in Mohave County this afternoon as moisture from former Tropical Storm Raymond interacts with our approaching trough. While 150-200% of normal, raw PWAT values aren't overly impressive at ~0.75". However, that has not prevent storms from producing a quick 0.50" of rain, resulting in localized flash flooding, particularly where training convection occurs. Additionally, the presence of the trough means that there is sufficient vertical wind shear for strong to severe storms, capable of producing 60+ mph gusts and quarter-sized hail. As the sun sets this evening, instability will wane and storms will dissipate.

The aforementioned trough has already begun to increase southwest winds across the region, with widespread gusts of 25 to 40 mph.
These should increase a bit more this afternoon, and after a relative lull tonight, return tomorrow ahead of the band of precipitation. Wind Advisories for most of our zones have already gone into effect, with Las Vegas Valley's advisory going into effect at 8AM Tuesday. As mentioned, a band of precipitation is forecast to push into our western zones late tonight, pushing eastward throughout the day Tuesday. Rainfall in the valley locations doesn't look to be too impactful, but rather a beneficial light-to-moderate rain with amounts up to 0.50-0.75" in some of our western and northern valleys. Above 7000-8000 feet, precipitation will largely be in the form of snow. Significant accumulations are anticipated in the Eastern Sierra, with 6-12 inches of snow above 7000 feet, and between 1-2 feet or more in the highest elevations above 9000 feet.
A Winter Storm Warning is in effect from 5PM today until 5AM Wednesday. In the White, Spring, and Sheep Mountains, snow accumulations are expected to be a bit more modest, with greater than 60% chances of 2+ inches on the roadways. Thus, opted to issue Winter Weather Advisories for these locations. Lida Summit in southern Esmeralda County could also see some snow impacts. All winter headlines are currently set to expire before sunrise Wednesday.

Notably cooler air will move in on Wednesday as the system exits.
Lows in the northern Owens Valley are expected to drop below freezing, with a Freeze Watch in effect Wednesday morning. Wednesday afternoon highs are forecast to be 12-20 degrees below normal for mid-October. Temperatures slowly moderate over the subsequent days, eventually returning to seasonable values by the weekend.

AVIATION
For Harry Reid
For the 00Z Forecast Package
Gusty southwest winds continue until sunset, becoming lighter overnight.
Expecting a shift to the southeast Tuesday morning before gusts pick up again in the late morning. Until precipitation arrives, wind direction should be between 140-180 with gusts around 30 knots. Once the band of rain moves in at ~21z, winds shift to a more south- southwest direction and weaken slightly. Best chances (50%) for rain between 21z and 01z, with CIGs likely (60%) between 6-8kft. There is a 20% chance they drop to 3kft. Sky conditions should improve pretty quickly Tuesday evening as precipitation exits.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California
For the 00Z Forecast Package
Gusty conditions persist this afternoon, weakening after sunset in most locations. A band of precipitation will begin to spill over the Sierra late tonight, moving into our far western zones. The eastward progression continues throughout the day tomorrow, moving through southeastern California and southern Nevada by Tuesday afternoon. Within the precipitation, expect reduced visibilities, lowered CIGs , and terrain obscuration. In the Mojave Desert, CIGs between 6-8kft are forecast while the southern Great Basin and Owens Valley should drop between 3-5kft, with 30-50% odds of falling below 2kft. Ahead of the precipitation tomorrow, slightly stronger south-southeast winds are anticipated with gusts 25-35 knots. As rain moves in, winds acquire a westerly component and may weaken.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.