Sunrise 6:11 AM   Sunset 7:28 PM Moonrise 2:48 PM   Moonset 3:57 AM

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FXUS65 KVEF 180804 AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 104 AM PDT Thu Apr 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak disturbance will bring considerable high clouds over our region Thursday. As the system moves inland Friday there will be a slight chance for showers over the mountains of western Inyo County. Otherwise, dry conditions and temperatures climbing well above normal will continue through the weekend and early next week under a ridge of high pressure. A trough will move inland Tuesday and Wednesday resulting in gusty southwest winds and temperatures gradually pulling back to near normal.

SHORT TERM
through Friday night.

Only change this morning was to bump up POPs over the southern Sierra/White/Inyo mountains of western Inyo County Friday afternoon and evening. Timing coincides with passage of weak shortwave trough through southern California. HRRR, along with deterministic NAM/GFS and ECMWF all paint some light QPF over the higher terrain.

Otherwise, much of the moisture streaming inland associated with the shortwave trough will be at or above 500 mb. The exception is Friday over Inyo County with cloud based between 10-15 kft MSL associated with the showers. Little change in high temperatures today and Friday as they will continue to run above normal. For Las Vegas, NBM showing only a 2 degree difference between the 25th and 75th percentile. Most persistent breezes will occur across the western Mojave Desert throughout the period, while daytime breezes elsewhere will subside in the overnight hours.

LONG TERM
Saturday through Wednesday.

Ridge will build across the western US through the weekend with temperatures climbing well above normal. Probabilities remain high for 90 degree or greater temperatures in the Las Vegas Valley through the weekend, with lower elevations along the Colorado River and Death Valley approaching or exceeding 100. The flow pattern will begin to change on Monday with increasing troughing beginning to form off the west coast and our flow aloft shifting to more southwesterly. This will keep temperatures warm Monday but we may notice increasingly breezy conditions in the afternoon with a stronger flow aloft beginning to mix down to the surface. Tuesday onward, troughing will begin to approach with heights decreasing.
This will induce a gradual cooldown and continued gusty conditions at times.

AVIATION
For Harry Reid...Generally light and variable winds through sunrise, favoring a northeasterly direction after 15z.
Probability of sustained winds exceeding 10 knots before 22z is around 35%, with best chances between 16z - 19z. After 22z, we'll be watching for the arrival of southwest winds with gusts up to 20 knots. Most likely arrival time appears to be between 22z and 00z.
It's possible (20% chance) that there'll be a brief period (1 hour or less) of southeast winds approaching 10 knots preceding the southwest winds. After sunset, southwest winds will weaken but persist through most of the night before becoming light and variable. SCT-BKN clouds aoa 15kft through most of the TAF period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Light northeast winds develop in the Las Vegas Valley after sunrise, persisting into the afternoon hours until breezy southwest winds arrive between 21z and 00z. Light winds at KBIH until west-northwest breezes arrive in the late afternoon, turning northerly after sunset. Persistent west breezes at KDAG, increasing after 00z with gusts of 20-25 knots. Light and variable winds in the Colorado River Valley, becoming southerly this afternoon with gusts up to 20 knots. VFR conditions prevail across the area as SCT-BKN clouds aoa 15kft persist through most of the TAF period.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.

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