Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chesapeake, VA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Dense fog this morning will be followed a stretch of increasingly warm temperatures today through midweek, potentially approaching or exceeding records Tuesday and Wednesday.

2) A stronger cold front crosses the area later Wednesday into Thursday, bringing the next chance for precipitation, along with a low-end potential for some stronger storms during the first part of Thursday. Cooler temperatures and dry weather returns to end the week.

DISCUSSION
As of 550 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dense fog this morning will be followed a stretch of increasingly warm temperatures today through midweek, potentially approaching or exceeding records Tuesday and Wednesday.

Widespread fog has developed this morning for most of the area and a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 10 AM.

Any fog should clear by the mid-morning with a pleasant (and mild)
day expected. The front to our S will become increasingly diffuse, likely dissipating by the later today. While the vast majority of the forecast area stays dry and mostly sunny today, there may be just enough convergence near the Albemarle Sound to support an isolated shower or two. Highs range through the mid-upper 70s, except a few degrees cooler on the Eastern Shore. A sea breeze could lead to locally cooler temps late in the afternoon at the immediate coast of SE VA and NE NC.

Upper-level heights build Tuesday and Wednesday as a ridge situates near the Gulf Coast and Southeast CONUS. This will support increasingly warm temperatures by Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread highs in low-mid 80s. As is typical in the Spring, the cooler waters surrounding the Eastern Shore will likely keep these localities cooler and in the 70s. Record high temps could be in reach for all of our climate sites both Tuesday and Wednesday.
See the climate section below for more info. Overnight lows will also be similarly mild. Mainly dry both days, though an approaching cold front could lead to a few showers W of I-95 by Wednesday afternoon and evening. In fact, those warm temps, dew points in the 60s, and increasingly favorable shear from the system to our W could support an isolated strong to severe storm. Overall coverage currently appears low due to only neutral height tendencies, but worth watching.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A stronger cold front crosses the area Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing the next chance for precipitation, along with a low-end potential for some stronger storms during the first part of Thursday. Cooler temperatures and dry weather returns to end the week.

A strong cold front still appears likely to cross the forecast area Thursday. Model guidance continues to show strong dynamics aloft ahead of and along the front, with plentiful ascent downstream of the parent shortwave. Widespread showers are thus likely late Wednesday night through early Thursday afternoon, shifting eastward through the day. Ensembles continue to support aerial rainfall totals on the order of a half inch or so, but any convective enhancement would almost certainly lead to locally higher totals. Regarding any convection, there remains notable differences among the global models regarding the degree of destabilization just ahead of the front. Should higher instability co-locate with the impressive wind fields aloft, a line of strong-severe showers/storms could materialize. This potential is definitely most favored across the E and SE where the frontal timing is most aligned with any destabilization.
Regardless, most of the precip will be anafrontal, i.e, chasing the sfc front, so any window for the severe potential would tend to be short-lived. The primary threat, should this materialize, would be damaging winds given straight hodographs and meager lapse rates aloft (i.e., low tornado and hail threats, respectively). Sharp pressure rises then overspread the region post- FROPA Thursday afternoon and evening with temps likely to quickly fall in the afternoon and evening as strong CAA ensues. Thus, the high temperatures shown in the forecast are likely to be achieved early in the day, with those falling temps as the day proceeds.

Dry and seasonably cooler wx returns Friday, though highs around 60 F and plentiful sunshine will still be quite pleasant. Milder temps approaching 70 F are forecasted by the weekend as transient high pressure slides over, also supporting continued mainly dry wx.

AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 550 AM EDT Monday...

Widespread LIFR conditions at all terminals this morning with dense fog and low stratus. Improvement is expected after 14z but IFR CIGs may linger at the coastal terminals through 16z.
VFR then this afternoon and evening with SCT CU at ECG. SW winds increase to 10-15 kt later this morning into the afternoon.
Flight restrictions should be less widespread tonight, but cannot rule out patchy fog inland and low stratus at the immediate coast.

Outlook: Prevailing VFR Tuesday through much of Wednesday, outside of intermittent early morning ground fog concerns. A stronger front approaches later Wednesday into Thursday which could bring additional showers and isolated storms, along with some flight restrictions.

MARINE
As of 610 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions are expected from today through Wednesday morning. Marine Dense Fog Advisories have been issued until 10 AM for all of the local waters.

- Solid SCAs look very likely from late Wednesday into Friday morning, as a dynamic system moves north of the region, and drags a cold front through the area on Thursday.

A weakening surface front is crossing the waters early this morning, with SW winds of 5-10 kt and 2-3 ft seas/1-2 ft waves at this hour.
Benign, sub-SCA marine conditions are still expected to persist from now through Wednesday morning, as weak high pressure rebuilds from the SSW. Seas will average 2-3 ft during this time with 1-2 ft waves. Wind speeds remain aob 10 kt as well and become SE by the afternoon before veering to the S tonight (and remaining southerly from Tue-Wed AM). Marine fog has quickly developed during the past couple of hours and have issued Dense Fog Advisories for all local waters until 10 AM. This may need to be extended for some zones, but did not have enough confidence to go beyond 10 AM attm.

Dynamic low pressure still looks to track across the upper Midwest to Quebec from Wednesday-Thursday morning, which will drag a second, stronger cold front through the waters Thu morning/afternoon. Solid SCA conditions are expected, with southerly winds ahead of the front Wed afternoon, abruptly becoming NNW following the FROPA. Southerly winds should average 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt Wed night-Thu AM.
The potential for gale force gusts ahead of the front still appears to be very low with the low tracking well to our N and WAA over cold water (upper 30s-40s F). Still think that there could be a 2-3 hour period of low-end gale force gusts with rapid pressure rises immediately following the FROPA. NW winds of 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt persist through early Thu night before gradually diminishing to below SCA thresholds by Fri AM. Local wind probs for 34 kt gusts are 20-60% for a brief time on the bay/ocean Thu aftn/early evening.
Do expect these probabilities are likely to trend up a bit more as the models converge with respect to exact timing of the FROPA. The forecast will continue to be refined in the coming days, and marine interests should continue to pay close attention to this time frame.

CLIMATE
As of 235 AM EDT Monday...

*** SBY broke the high min record for 3/8, with ORF and ECG tying their respective record high min temps. ***

Record High Temps for 3/8 - 3/11

Record Record Record Record High/Year High/Year High/Year High/Year Location 3/8 3/9 3/10 3/11 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 85 (2000) 82 (2009) 81 (2006) 82 (1990)
Norfolk 82 (2000) 82 (2000) 81 (2016) 82 (1990)
Salisbury 82 (2000) 77 (2000) 77 (2016) 76 (2000)
Eliz. City 84 (2000) 82 (2009) 82 (2016) 81 (2016)

Record High Min Temps for 3/8 - 3/11

Record Record Record Record High High High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 3/8 3/9 3/10 3/11 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 61 (2009) 61 (1921) 63 (2006) 56 (1955)
Norfolk 63 (1946) 62 (1921) 62 (2016) 82 (1925)
Salisbury 57 (2009) 57 (1998) 60 (1909) 51 (1955)
Eliz. City 63 (1946) 60 (1964) 57 (2016) 58 (1967)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for MDZ021>025.
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for NCZ012>017- 030>032-102.
VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for VAZ048- 060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-509>525.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>638- 650-652-654-656-658.