Wednesday, January27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Chesapeake, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 5:26PM Wednesday January 27, 2021 9:23 PM EST (02:23 UTC) Moonrise 4:17PMMoonset 6:31AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ638 James River From James River Bridge To Hampton Roads Bridge- Tunnel- 735 Pm Est Wed Jan 27 2021
.gale warning in effect through Thursday evening...
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft, building to 3 ft. A slight chance of rain late this evening. A chance of rain or snow after midnight, then rain or snow likely late with vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu..NW winds 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft. A chance of snow or rain early in the morning.
Thu night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Fri night..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Snow likely in the morning. Rain likely.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain likely.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
ANZ600 735 Pm Est Wed Jan 27 2021
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. An area of low pressure tracks south of the local area tonight and rapidly intensifies off the coast of north carolina on Thursday. High pressure builds into and across the region from Thursday night through Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chesapeake, VA
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location: 36.76, -76.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 280157 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 857 PM EST Wed Jan 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure tracks south of the local area tonight into Thursday morning. High pressure builds across the region for the end of the week. Another low pressure system will affect the region Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/. As of 855 PM EST Wednesday .

Only minor adjustments to the forecast this evening. Guidance has slight chance PoPs moving into the area a bit faster than progged this afternoon. Will show a rain/snow mix spreading in from the SW after 10pm. Still expect the bulk of the QPF to fall near/after midnight tonight.

Shortwave will push across the area late tonight and into Thursday morning. Initially expect mainly rain, w/overrunning moisture/DPVA ahead of the approaching system. Its that potent upper level trough that will be the key to snow developing across the area late tonight. The system will have to generate cold air through dynamics (dynamic cooling . or a rain to snow scenario).

Overall, model trends have nudged towards a heavier QPF solution overnight. CAMs are nearly unanimous with depicting decent axis of frontogenetic/adiabatic omega pushing across the area after midnight. Hv accordingly nudged snow accumulations up along and south of US-40, with a general 1-3" across the area away from the coast, w/up to 2 inches farther east from Isle of Wight over to VA Beach/Back Bay area. Light snow or just flurries expected over most central/nrn portions of the FA. As previously noted, majority of accums will occur on grassy and elevated surfaces and car tops. Given the sfc temps and amount of strong dynamic cooling that will be required to realize the GFS Para numbers, have tempered that a bit and stayed closer to NAM/ECMWF. Other issue will be increasing winds, with NW winds ramping up to 20-30 mph as low deepens Thu morning. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the coastal communities from the eastern shore to Currituck, including VA independent cities of Hampton/Norfolk/VB.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 405 PM EST Wednesday .

Low pres exits quickly Thu morning w/ lingering pcpn at the coast ending. NNW winds will be breezy/windy in its wake as clearing occurs Gusts to 40-50 mph are expected. highest most likely at the coast. Cold Thu w/ highs not too far from 40F . wind chills mainly in the 20s.

Quieter wx Thu night through Saturday. With shortwave ridging aloft continuing to pivot south into the area, ushering in markedly cooler/drying airmass across the region. Look for early morning lows in the upper teens to 20s . with highs only in the upper 30s-low 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 355 PM EST Tuesday .

Unsettled weather pattern looks to continue into the medium range with the potential for another storm system to impact the area for the second half of the weekend into early next week. High pressure near the Hudson Bay will ridge southward into the Mid-Atlantic region Saturday night with stacked low pressure over the central CONUS. A CAD wedge looks likely to setup across the region on Sunday as high pressure continues to bring cool/dry air into the region east of the higher Appalachian terrain. The primary low pressure area will weaken and slowly lift into the Ohio Valley Sunday night with new low pressure taking shape across the eastern Carolinas in a typical 'Miller B' cyclone evolution. The coastal low will become the dominant feature by Monday morning. Guidance is in relatively good agreement regarding the overall evolution but significant differences remain with respect to thermal profiles and timing. For now, will show a chance of light snow Sunday morning with a rain/snow mix spreading northward during the day as warmer marine air comes into the area on the NW side of the strengthening coastal low. The low will be slow to move away from the area Monday into the overnight. Colder air will eventually come in as the low pulls away from the coast Monday night/Tuesday morning but depth of available moisture and chance for further frozen precip is uncertain at this time. ECMWF ensembles probs for 3" accumulation have increased to 60- 80% for the climatologically favored Piedmont and northern I-95 corridor.

High pressure builds into the region behind the low Tuesday night into Wednesday with a return to drier weather.

AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 715 PM EST Wednesday .

Low level clouds linger this evening with primarily VFR CIGs (4,000-5,000 ft) except in the far S around ECG where MVFR CIGs are present (2,500-3,000 ft). Low pres approaches the FA tonight, crossing south of the area and exiting quickly offshore through midday Thursday. Additional flight restrictions tonight due to low CIGs and mixed pcpn (RA/SN - becoming SN). -RA could start as early as 05-06z before spreading in coverage from W to E and before changing over to SN. Primarily MVFR CIGs overnight with IFR CIGs possible in the far south (ECG) from around 08-12z. VIS will be the main issue due to the SN with IFR/LIFR VIS around 1/2-1 SM likely at PHF/ORF/ECG (and possible at RIC) late tonight into the early morning. NNE winds 5-10 kt will become N overnight and increase to 10-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt inland (RIC) and 15-20 kt with gusts 20-25 kt near the coast (ORF/PHF/ECG/SBY). Winds become NNW Thursday with VFR conditions returning by late morning/early afternoon. Winds remain breezy/windy through the day at 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt inland and 18-25 kt with gusts to 35 kt along the coast and at SBY. VFR conds to prevail Thu night- Sat night.

MARINE. As of 415 PM EST Wednesday .

Late this aftn, weak high pressure was centered over the area, providing northerly winds 5-15 kt. Seas were 2-3 ft, with waves of 1-2 ft.

Low pressure is still progged to deepen, as it tracks across the Carolinas tonight, before exiting quickly out to sea during the latter part of Thu morning (and through the remainder of the day on Thu). The low will rapidly intensify shortly after it moves off the coast. N winds increase to ~20 kt by around 06z Thu on the bay/ocean. Then, by late Wed night into Thu morning, winds become NNW and will increase to 25-35 kt (highest over the srn coastal waters) in the wake of the storm system. The strongest winds will occur from Thu morning through Thu evening before diminishing slightly late Thu night. Gusts 35-40 kt will be common for the Ches Bay/Currituck Sound/Coastal Waters/Lower James River, and around 30 kt for the upper rivers during this time. So, Gale Warnings are now in effect for the ocean/bay/Lower James/Currituck Sound into/through Thu evening or through late Thu night. A secondary (fairly strong) CAA surge arrives late Thu night/Fri morning with robust (850 mb temps are progged to bottom out between -15 and -17C N of Cape Charles). CAA continues during the day on Fri. This will result in at least the continuation of solid/strong SCA conditions, with a decent chc of gale gusts north of Cape Charles (mainly from 12-21z Fri). Will hold off on extending the warnings, given that it would be more than 48 hours out. Additionally, cannot rule out some light freezing spray over the coastal waters N of Parramore Island late Thu night/Fri morning. NW or N winds will slowly diminish Fri night into Sat morning. Winds should finally fall below SCA thresholds by late Sat morning. Seas are expected to top out between 7-10 ft with waves on the Bay 4-5 ft (perhaps 6 ft at the mouth).

HYDROLOGY. Flood Warning continues for the Meherrin River at Lawrenceville. Additional flood warnings may be needed later this week along the Nottoway River, and will need to monitor Stony Creek, and Sebrell.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Thursday for MDZ021>025. NC . Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Thursday for NCZ017-102. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Thursday for NCZ012. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Thursday for NCZ013>017-030>032. VA . Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Thursday for VAZ095- 098>100-525. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Thursday for VAZ065-066-079-087-088-092. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST Thursday for VAZ093-095>098. MARINE . Gale Warning until 10 PM EST Thursday for ANZ630>632-650-652- 654. Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ634-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Friday for ANZ635>637. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ633-638.

SYNOPSIS . MAM NEAR TERM . MAM/RHR SHORT TERM . ALB/MAM LONG TERM . RHR AVIATION . RMM MARINE . ERI/TMG HYDROLOGY .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44087 20 mi57 min 44°F2 ft
44072 30 mi43 min E 14 G 16 41°F
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 32 mi57 min 47°F2 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 49 mi57 min 45°F3 ft

Wind History for Money Point, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chesapeake, Chesapeake Municipal Airport, VA7 mi28 minNNE 310.00 miOvercast41°F31°F68%1018.6 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA11 mi32 minNNE 1210.00 miOvercast43°F31°F63%1017.9 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA12 mi24 minNE 810.00 miOvercast42°F31°F65%1018.9 hPa
Virginia Beach, Oceana, Naval Air Station, VA15 mi27 minN 310.00 miOvercast43°F30°F60%1018.2 hPa
Suffolk, Suffolk Municipal Airport, VA17 mi28 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy39°F35°F83%1019 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCPK

Wind History from CPK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3W4NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5N3NE6N7NE9NE5NE6CalmN3N4NE3
1 day agoNE6--NE5NE7NE7NE6N4CalmCalmN3NE3CalmN3W3W3CalmW4W4W4W3SW3SW5SW3Calm
2 days agoCalmNE3NE3CalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmS4CalmSE3S3S4S4CalmE3CalmE3SE3E3CalmE4NE6

Tide / Current Tables for Portsmouth, Southern Branch, Virginia
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Portsmouth
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Wed -- 01:41 AM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:31 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:08 AM EST     3.03 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:40 PM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:17 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:26 PM EST     2.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.3-0.1-0.10.20.81.52.32.832.92.51.81.10.40-00.30.81.52.12.42.421.4

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current
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Chesapeake Bay Entrance
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Wed -- 12:58 AM EST     -1.24 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:10 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:30 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:57 AM EST     0.97 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:35 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:59 PM EST     -1.22 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:15 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:10 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:23 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:29 PM EST     0.64 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:10 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.1-1.2-1.1-0.7-0.10.50.910.90.60.3-0.2-0.7-1.1-1.2-1.1-0.6-0.10.40.60.60.40.1-0.4

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