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FXUS66 KHNX 302145 AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 145 PM PST Thu Nov 30 2023


SYNOPSIS
An incoming atmospheric disturbance will be responsible for a slight chance of rain in the San Joaquin Valley and a chance of snow in the Sierra Nevada this afternoon through Friday morning.
Strong, gusty winds are expected in the Mojave Desert Slopes this afternoon through Friday morning. Storms will remain north of Central California this weekend into the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION
Satellite loops show scattered clouds across central California this afternoon as an upper trough digs southeast over the state.
Temperatures will be a little cooler than yesterday with highs as much as 4 degrees above climatological normals for this time of the year. An onshore pressure gradient is increasing with the approach of the trough, causing winds to ramp up through the Kern County mountain passes this afternoon. West northwest gusts from 30 to 40 mph are already occurring and will continue to climb through the afternoon. A Wind Advisory goes into effect for the Mojave Slopes at 1 PM this afternoon until 10 AM Friday morning.
West northwest gusts near 55 mph are conceivable this evening.

High resolution models show showers developing along the Sierra crest late this afternoon then spreading south this evening and into the Kern County mountains around midnight. Precipitation is expected to fairly light with most areas receiving less than one tenth of an inch liquid. There is potential for up to one quarter of an inch around Yosemite NP and one to two tenths of an inch in the Kern County mountains around Lebec. Snow levels start out around 6000 feet then lower to 5000 feet this evening and around 4500 feet in Kern County Friday morning. One to three inches of snow is possible above 5000 feet. There is a 79 percent chance of 1 inch of snow or more at Tioga Pass and a 37 percent chance for 2 inches of snow or more. There is also an 8 percent chance for one inch of snow or more at Pine Mountain Club in southern Kern County. Some mixed precipitation is possible over the Grapevine early Friday morning.

The trough shifts east on Friday with a cool northwesterly flow aloft and drying conditions. The weekend will remain seasonably cool then high pressure building in from the east Pacific early next week will push high temperatures to around 10 degrees above normal by Wednesday.

AVIATION
MVFR or lower conditions are likely in and near any precipitation across the Sierra Nevada, adjacent foothills, and Kern County mountains this afternoon through Friday morning. Strong west to northwest winds on the lee side of the Tehachapi Mountains may increase turbulence this afternoon through Friday morning.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES
On Thursday November 30 2023, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno and Kern Counties.
Burning Discouraged in Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday for CAZ338.

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San Joaquin Valley, CA,