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FXUS65 KVEF 072213 AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 213 PM PST Thu Dec 7 2023

SYNOPSIS
A passing trough will produce gusty west winds today, and gusty north winds Friday and Saturday as well as a drop in temperatures. High pressure will build over the Desert Southwest, which will increase temperatures through midweek.


SHORT TERM
Today through Saturday.

Temperatures today will range 5 to 8 degrees above seasonal normals.
This will be the warmest day of the forecast period, as an inside slider will bring cooler temperatures and gusty winds to the region going into the weekend. Gusty west winds today will be primarily focused in the western Mojave Desert this afternoon before gusty north-northwest winds set up across the region Friday and Saturday.
Gusts will primarily range from 10 to 20 mph, though the highest wind gusts will exist late Friday through Saturday morning / early afternoon, particularly along the Colorado River Valley, where tightened surface gradients will result in gusts approaching 40 mph at times. No wind-related headlines are expected, as the highest gusts will be fairly localized in space and time.
However, it is of note that wave heights on Lake Mead and Lake Mohave will range from 1 to 3 feet Friday and Saturday, which is dangerous for small craft. Temperatures will bottom out on Saturday, with high temperatures between 4 and 6 degrees below seasonal averages.

LONG TERM
Sunday through next Thursday.

A ridge of high pressure will build through the weekend, which will allow temperatures to increase back to above-average through the remainder of the forecast period.

Ensemble means continue to indicate the development of a trough early next week, with it closing off over the Four Corners midweek.
Details regarding intensity and impacts remain unclear at this time, but as mentioned in the previous discussion, moisture is limited, with PWATs hardly exceeding 0.30" across the Mojave Desert.
Temperatures will drop closer to seasonal normals, with increased wind speeds likely from the tightened surface pressure gradients.


AVIATION
For Harry Reid...Light winds are expected through the remainder of the afternoon with occasional northeast winds up to 5 kts at times through sunset. Winds overnight will generally become southwest around 7 kts. Light winds Friday morning, but are expected to increase out of the northeast after 18z with speeds around 8 kts.
FEW-SCT high clouds linger through most of the TAF period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Gusty west winds occurring this afternoon across western San Bernardino County with sustained winds 18-22 kts with gusts to around 30 kts. These winds are expected to decrease after 23z, but remain gusty through the overnight period with speeds around 14 kts with gusts between 20-25 kts. These winds are also expected to last through Friday. Elsewhere, look for winds generally less than 10 kts through Friday morning. Winds will increase in the vicinity of EED and IFP Friday afternoon with north winds gusting to around 15-20 kts in the afternoon.


SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.

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