Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Independence, CA

DISCUSSION
through early next week.

Northerly breezes will linger down the Colorado River Valley today as the trough responsible for yesterday's cool temperatures and gusty winds moves off to our east. Temperatures will gradually begin to warm back up in the wake of this trough with temperatures approaching normal as we head into next week. As this trough continues to move off to the east, energy will drop in behind it on Thursday and Friday, eventually developing into a closed low over southern California/northern Baja. As this disturbance drops into the area on Thursday morning, gusty northerly-to-northeastelry winds will pick up across the area. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the lower Colorado River Valley, southern Clark County, the Mojave National Preserve, and the Cadiz Basin from Thursday morning through Friday morning for 40 to 50 mph wind gusts. Elsewhere, gusts will peak in the 30 to 40 mph range on Thursday. Gusty northeasterly winds will ramp back up overnight Thursday into Friday as the low closes off and a 35 to 45 knot 700 mb jet sets up across the region overnight. Gusty winds will continue into the early morning hours before beginning to decrease late Friday morning/early Friday afternoon.

This closed low will churn over southern California and northern Baja over the weekend before weakening and lifting to the east early next week. While this low spins over southern California over the weekend, Hurricane Simon will slowly meander north into the Gulf of California, weakening as he moves into the gulf. Given the placement of the low as Simon moves north, some ensemble members have begun to pick up on the potential for moisture advection into the area over the weekend. Adding another moving piece to the puzzle that is the long term forecast, an upper-level trough looks to drop into the area early next week. This moisture advection out ahead of the trough combined with the lift associated with the trough will have the potential to bring scattered-to-widespread showers to the region. This is currently reflected in the low precipitation chances that show up at the end of the forecast period. However, given the multiple moving parts to this puzzle and how far out in the forecast period this occurs, uncertainty is high and confidence in early next week's forecast is currently low.

AVIATION
For Harry Reid
For the 18Z Forecast Package
North-northeast winds this afternoon with gusts to around 20 kts before becoming light and more variable this evening. Northerly winds will re-develop on Thursday morning with gusts between 20 and 30 kts. Otherwise, dry conditions and clear skies.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California
For the 18Z Forecast Package
Northerly breezes will continue across much of the region today and tomorrow. Wind gusts generally 15-30 knots. Winds will relax in most locations this evening and overnight but re-develop Thursday morning with gusts of 25-40 knots. VFR conditions under clear skies.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.