Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pajaro Dunes, CA
July 2, 2024 10:43 PM PDT (05:43 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:51 AM Sunset 8:33 PM Moonrise 1:45 AM Moonset 4:53 PM |
PZZ535 Monterey Bay- 840 Pm Pdt Tue Jul 2 2024
Today - W wind around 5 kt, rising to 5 to 10 kt this afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: W 5 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy dense fog early this morning.
Tonight - SW wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave detail: W 5 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy dense fog.
Wed - SW wind around 5 kt, veering to W in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: W 5 ft at 11 seconds.
Wed night - SW wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming se after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: W 4 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy dense fog after midnight.
Independence day - S wind around 5 kt, veering to W in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. Wave detail: W 3 ft at 10 seconds.
Thu night - W wind around 5 kt, veering to N after midnight. Seas around 3 ft. Wave detail: W 2 ft at 10 seconds.
Fri - NW wind around 5 kt, backing to W in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft. Wave detail: W 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Fri night - W wind 5 to 10 kt, veering to N after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: W 3 ft at 8 seconds.
Sat - NW wind around 5 kt, backing to W in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: W 3 ft at 8 seconds.
Sat night - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: W 4 ft at 7 seconds.
locally lower winds and seas across sheltered portions of the bay.
locally lower winds and seas across sheltered portions of the bay.
PZZ500 840 Pm Pdt Tue Jul 2 2024
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay - Greater farallones - .and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries - . Fresh northerly winds continue over the outer coastal waters today, with gale force gusts expected over the northern outer waters through early Wednesday morning. As high pressure strengthens and moves eastward, winds begin to diminish late tomorrow night. Winds from late tomorrow night through the weekend are expected to be predominantly gentle to moderate. Portions of the northern outer waters may see peak wave heights between 12-16 feet through the late afternoon of Wednesday.
Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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FXUS66 KMTR 030443 AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 943 PM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024
New AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 841 PM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Extreme heat is expected to continue across the interior throughout the week and potentially into next week. Meanwhile, coastal areas are expected to remain cooler thanks to a shallow marine layer and associated onshore flow. Increased fire danger this week as well with temperatures well above normal and dry conditions through out the forecast period.
UPDATE
Issued at 841 PM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Inland areas were HOT this afternoon with temperatures exceeding 105 degrees across manly inland areas breaking and/or tying records.
However, cooler conditions prevailed near the immediate coast thanks to the marine layer (around 500 feet in depth) and onshore flow with maximum temperatures in the 60's and 70's. Tonight, temperatures will not cool much but still lower into the upper 50's to lower 70's in the valleys (slightly cooler along the immediate coast). However, in the hills and higher elevations they look to remain in the mid 60's to low 80's providing minimal overnight relief from today's heat.
LOCATION HIGH PREVIOUS RECORD --------------------------------------------------------------- SAN JOSE 102 (TIED) 102 IN 1970 SAN RAFAEL 103 101 IN 1991 KENTFIELD 103 101 IN 1991 SANTA ROSA 105 103 IN 1970 OAKLAND 90 89 IN 2001
These data are preliminary and have not undergone final quality control by the National Centers for Environmental Information.
Therefore, these data are subject to revision. Final and certified climate data can be accessed at www.ncei.noaa.gov.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 158 PM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Current temperatures are running about 10-20 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago as the high pressure builds in. Main changes for today have been extending and adding to our current hazards. I will list out the changes here and talk more about them in the next section since they carry over into the "long term". The Heat Advisory for San Francisco has been extended to include Thursday.
The Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning for all other locations originally included have been extended to NEXT Tuesday night. The Red Flag Warnings in the North Bay, Santa Cruz Mtns, and East Bay Hills have been extended to Friday morning. Finally, a Fire Weather Watch was added for interior portions of Monterey and San Bentio Counties, Santa Lucia, and the Southern Salinas Valley for Friday through Sunday. In terms of the forecast from today into Wednesday, there will be no significant change. Some locations may see a degree or two taken off their highs while other will see a degree or two added. Wednesday afternoon, there is a very weak mid-level perturbation that will bring some degree of marine influence to coastal areas and locations around the Bay.
While not a significant or even noticeable cool off by any means for most, this may help to limit high temps a bit for San Francisco Wednesday evening going into Thursday. On to the long term to discuss what we expect to happen going forward.
LONG TERM
(Thursday and beyond)
Issued at 158 PM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024
The heat isn't going anywhere any time soon. Long range guidance and cluster analysis strongly suggest this pattern is here to stay through at least the beginning of next week. Some areas may see a couple of degrees shaved off before the weekend, but it will stay hot. A secondary peak is expected by the weekend into early next week. While it may seem manageable based on looking at a single day of these temps, the length of this event will present an extremely dangerous and potentially historic event. Jogging back in "recent" memory, to find the next most significant heat event in terms of overall scale and longevity, you have to look back to 2006. Sure, some locations have seen higher temps in more recent memory, but this many days in a row may actually be challenging some records based on the current forecast. How long will this actually last? Good question. Taking a look at the ensemble guidance for 850 mb temps...the forecast mean for OAK remains above the 90th percentile and near the maximum moving average through NEXT Friday, July 12. This is especially alarming when compared with a look at how models are handling the overall pattern. In the aforementioned cluster analysis, only 2% of total members support a flattening of the ridge by mid-to-late next week. This strongly suggests that there is high confidence in this pattern and associated heat wave lasting through the forecast period. This aided in the decision to extended the Excessive Heat Warning out for 8 consecutive days, an unprecedented action from our office.
It cannot be stressed enough that this is an exceptionally dangerous and lethal situation. It may not seem so if you live near the coast, but an event of this scale, magnitude, and longevity will likely rival anything we've seen in the last 18 years for inland areas. Several days of temperatures well above normal and little relief overnight will lead to compounding effects among people and infrastructure, with the possibility of numerous heat related fatalities and rolling black outs. Heat is the number one weather related killer in the United States. By this weekend, it is VERY LIKELY that we add to that statistic if preparations are not taken seriously.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 942 PM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024
VFR through the TAF period except for Monterey Bay. Winds light and offshore tonight for most terminals, with a few VRB. High pressure will continue to provide clear skies, though haze is thought to obscure visibilities slightly in the afternoon and evening tomorrow as pollution is trapped near the ground, and smoke filters into the area from nearby wildfires. Onshore winds return in the afternoon tomorrow but will be predominantly light.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Light easterly flow is likely to develop in the morning Wednesday, but will turn to become more NW and breezy into the late morning and early afternoon. Haze will likely reduce visibilities in the area in the late afternoon and early evening.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR persists through the early morning, though stratus may trickle in bringing intermittent LIFR CIGs . With the severe compression of the marine layer, and light offshore flow expected overnight, there remains uncertainty as to whether CIGs will actually form over KMRY and KSNS. The compression and light offshore flow could be just enough to erode any stratus that begins to form. Models do continue to indicate stratus forming over terminals in the early morning Wednesday, but given the aforementioned, confidence on CIG formation is low. However, should CIGs form, confidence is high that they will be LIFR given the severe compression from high pressure. That all aside, VFR returns towards sunrise and lasts through the remainder of the TAF period.
MARINE
Issued at 841 PM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Fresh northerly winds continue over the outer coastal waters today, with gale force gusts expected over the northern outer waters through early Wednesday morning. As high pressure strengthens and moves eastward, winds begin to diminish late tomorrow night. Winds from late tomorrow night through the weekend are expected to be predominantly gentle to moderate.
Portions of the northern outer waters may see peak wave heights between 12-16 feet through the late afternoon of Wednesday.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 354 PM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Red Flag Warnings currently in effect for high elevations of the North Bay, East Bay Hills, and the Santa Cruz Mtns have been extended to 5AM Friday. This decision was made due to a combination of continued low RH in the teens, very dry fuels, and the 4th of July holiday. Fuels are quickly curing and will see no relief through this weekend. In fact, 10 and 100 hour fuels are near historic levels in the North Bay in regard to the energy release component going into the weekend. The same fuels in the Diablo Range and Santa Cruz Mtns aren't far behind. Further south, things start to dry out more this weekend. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for the Santa Lucia Range, Interior Monterey and San Benito county, and the Southern Salinas Valley from Friday morning to Sunday night.
Behringer
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ006-506- 508.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ006.
Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ502>504- 506-510-512>518.
Red Flag Warning until 5 AM PDT Friday for CAZ502>504-512-515.
Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ508-528-529.
Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Sunday evening for CAZ516>518.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 943 PM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024
New AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 841 PM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Extreme heat is expected to continue across the interior throughout the week and potentially into next week. Meanwhile, coastal areas are expected to remain cooler thanks to a shallow marine layer and associated onshore flow. Increased fire danger this week as well with temperatures well above normal and dry conditions through out the forecast period.
UPDATE
Issued at 841 PM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Inland areas were HOT this afternoon with temperatures exceeding 105 degrees across manly inland areas breaking and/or tying records.
However, cooler conditions prevailed near the immediate coast thanks to the marine layer (around 500 feet in depth) and onshore flow with maximum temperatures in the 60's and 70's. Tonight, temperatures will not cool much but still lower into the upper 50's to lower 70's in the valleys (slightly cooler along the immediate coast). However, in the hills and higher elevations they look to remain in the mid 60's to low 80's providing minimal overnight relief from today's heat.
LOCATION HIGH PREVIOUS RECORD --------------------------------------------------------------- SAN JOSE 102 (TIED) 102 IN 1970 SAN RAFAEL 103 101 IN 1991 KENTFIELD 103 101 IN 1991 SANTA ROSA 105 103 IN 1970 OAKLAND 90 89 IN 2001
These data are preliminary and have not undergone final quality control by the National Centers for Environmental Information.
Therefore, these data are subject to revision. Final and certified climate data can be accessed at www.ncei.noaa.gov.
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 158 PM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Current temperatures are running about 10-20 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago as the high pressure builds in. Main changes for today have been extending and adding to our current hazards. I will list out the changes here and talk more about them in the next section since they carry over into the "long term". The Heat Advisory for San Francisco has been extended to include Thursday.
The Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning for all other locations originally included have been extended to NEXT Tuesday night. The Red Flag Warnings in the North Bay, Santa Cruz Mtns, and East Bay Hills have been extended to Friday morning. Finally, a Fire Weather Watch was added for interior portions of Monterey and San Bentio Counties, Santa Lucia, and the Southern Salinas Valley for Friday through Sunday. In terms of the forecast from today into Wednesday, there will be no significant change. Some locations may see a degree or two taken off their highs while other will see a degree or two added. Wednesday afternoon, there is a very weak mid-level perturbation that will bring some degree of marine influence to coastal areas and locations around the Bay.
While not a significant or even noticeable cool off by any means for most, this may help to limit high temps a bit for San Francisco Wednesday evening going into Thursday. On to the long term to discuss what we expect to happen going forward.
LONG TERM
(Thursday and beyond)
Issued at 158 PM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024
The heat isn't going anywhere any time soon. Long range guidance and cluster analysis strongly suggest this pattern is here to stay through at least the beginning of next week. Some areas may see a couple of degrees shaved off before the weekend, but it will stay hot. A secondary peak is expected by the weekend into early next week. While it may seem manageable based on looking at a single day of these temps, the length of this event will present an extremely dangerous and potentially historic event. Jogging back in "recent" memory, to find the next most significant heat event in terms of overall scale and longevity, you have to look back to 2006. Sure, some locations have seen higher temps in more recent memory, but this many days in a row may actually be challenging some records based on the current forecast. How long will this actually last? Good question. Taking a look at the ensemble guidance for 850 mb temps...the forecast mean for OAK remains above the 90th percentile and near the maximum moving average through NEXT Friday, July 12. This is especially alarming when compared with a look at how models are handling the overall pattern. In the aforementioned cluster analysis, only 2% of total members support a flattening of the ridge by mid-to-late next week. This strongly suggests that there is high confidence in this pattern and associated heat wave lasting through the forecast period. This aided in the decision to extended the Excessive Heat Warning out for 8 consecutive days, an unprecedented action from our office.
It cannot be stressed enough that this is an exceptionally dangerous and lethal situation. It may not seem so if you live near the coast, but an event of this scale, magnitude, and longevity will likely rival anything we've seen in the last 18 years for inland areas. Several days of temperatures well above normal and little relief overnight will lead to compounding effects among people and infrastructure, with the possibility of numerous heat related fatalities and rolling black outs. Heat is the number one weather related killer in the United States. By this weekend, it is VERY LIKELY that we add to that statistic if preparations are not taken seriously.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 942 PM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024
VFR through the TAF period except for Monterey Bay. Winds light and offshore tonight for most terminals, with a few VRB. High pressure will continue to provide clear skies, though haze is thought to obscure visibilities slightly in the afternoon and evening tomorrow as pollution is trapped near the ground, and smoke filters into the area from nearby wildfires. Onshore winds return in the afternoon tomorrow but will be predominantly light.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Light easterly flow is likely to develop in the morning Wednesday, but will turn to become more NW and breezy into the late morning and early afternoon. Haze will likely reduce visibilities in the area in the late afternoon and early evening.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR persists through the early morning, though stratus may trickle in bringing intermittent LIFR CIGs . With the severe compression of the marine layer, and light offshore flow expected overnight, there remains uncertainty as to whether CIGs will actually form over KMRY and KSNS. The compression and light offshore flow could be just enough to erode any stratus that begins to form. Models do continue to indicate stratus forming over terminals in the early morning Wednesday, but given the aforementioned, confidence on CIG formation is low. However, should CIGs form, confidence is high that they will be LIFR given the severe compression from high pressure. That all aside, VFR returns towards sunrise and lasts through the remainder of the TAF period.
MARINE
Issued at 841 PM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Fresh northerly winds continue over the outer coastal waters today, with gale force gusts expected over the northern outer waters through early Wednesday morning. As high pressure strengthens and moves eastward, winds begin to diminish late tomorrow night. Winds from late tomorrow night through the weekend are expected to be predominantly gentle to moderate.
Portions of the northern outer waters may see peak wave heights between 12-16 feet through the late afternoon of Wednesday.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 354 PM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Red Flag Warnings currently in effect for high elevations of the North Bay, East Bay Hills, and the Santa Cruz Mtns have been extended to 5AM Friday. This decision was made due to a combination of continued low RH in the teens, very dry fuels, and the 4th of July holiday. Fuels are quickly curing and will see no relief through this weekend. In fact, 10 and 100 hour fuels are near historic levels in the North Bay in regard to the energy release component going into the weekend. The same fuels in the Diablo Range and Santa Cruz Mtns aren't far behind. Further south, things start to dry out more this weekend. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for the Santa Lucia Range, Interior Monterey and San Benito county, and the Southern Salinas Valley from Friday morning to Sunday night.
Behringer
MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ006-506- 508.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ006.
Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ502>504- 506-510-512>518.
Red Flag Warning until 5 AM PDT Friday for CAZ502>504-512-515.
Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ508-528-529.
Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Sunday evening for CAZ516>518.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.
Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KWVI
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KWVI
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KWVI
Wind History graph: WVI
(wind in knots)Tide / Current for Elkhorn Slough, Highway 1 Bridge, California
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Elkhorn Slough
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:43 AM PDT Moonrise
Tue -- 02:51 AM PDT -0.50 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:52 AM PDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:41 AM PDT 3.62 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:02 PM PDT 2.45 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:52 PM PDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:11 PM PDT 5.76 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:30 PM PDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:43 AM PDT Moonrise
Tue -- 02:51 AM PDT -0.50 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:52 AM PDT Sunrise
Tue -- 09:41 AM PDT 3.62 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:02 PM PDT 2.45 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:52 PM PDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:11 PM PDT 5.76 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:30 PM PDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Elkhorn Slough, Highway 1 Bridge, California, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.4 |
| 1 am |
| 0.3 |
| 2 am |
| -0.3 |
| 3 am |
| -0.5 |
| 4 am |
| -0.2 |
| 5 am |
| 0.4 |
| 6 am |
| 1.3 |
| 7 am |
| 2.2 |
| 8 am |
| 3 |
| 9 am |
| 3.5 |
| 10 am |
| 3.6 |
| 11 am |
| 3.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 3 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 3.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 4.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 5.4 |
| 8 pm |
| 5.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 5.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 4.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 3.7 |
Point Pinos
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:41 AM PDT -0.93 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:45 AM PDT Moonrise
Tue -- 04:47 AM PDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:53 AM PDT Sunrise
Tue -- 07:59 AM PDT 0.71 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:12 AM PDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:27 PM PDT -0.35 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:26 PM PDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:52 PM PDT Moonset
Tue -- 07:20 PM PDT 0.52 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:30 PM PDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:05 PM PDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:41 AM PDT -0.93 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:45 AM PDT Moonrise
Tue -- 04:47 AM PDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:53 AM PDT Sunrise
Tue -- 07:59 AM PDT 0.71 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:12 AM PDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 01:27 PM PDT -0.35 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 04:26 PM PDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:52 PM PDT Moonset
Tue -- 07:20 PM PDT 0.52 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:30 PM PDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:05 PM PDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Point Pinos, California Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -0.9 |
| 1 am |
| -0.9 |
| 2 am |
| -0.8 |
| 3 am |
| -0.6 |
| 4 am |
| -0.3 |
| 5 am |
| 0.1 |
| 6 am |
| 0.4 |
| 7 am |
| 0.6 |
| 8 am |
| 0.7 |
| 9 am |
| 0.6 |
| 10 am |
| 0.4 |
| 11 am |
| 0.1 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.3 |
| 4 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 0 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.4 |
San Francisco Bay Area, CA,
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