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PZZ535 Monterey Bay- 819 Am Pdt Tue Oct 3 2023
Today..NW winds around 5 knots...becoming W 10 to 15 knots this afternoon. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 16 seconds.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 knots. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 15 seconds.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 knots. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 13 seconds.
Wed night..NE winds around 5 knots. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 12 seconds.
Thu..N winds around 5 knots. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 14 seconds.
Thu night..N winds around 5 knots. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 14 seconds.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 knots. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell 2 to 3 ft and S up to 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 knots. Wind waves 1 ft. W swell around 2 ft.
locally lower winds and seas across sheltered portions of the bay.

PZZ500 819 Am Pdt Tue Oct 3 2023
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries...
breezy northwest winds continue into midweek, but will reduce and become light for the late week. Moderate period southerly swell 12 to 14 seconds persists through the week, alongside a shorter period northwesterly swell at 8 to 10 seconds. A longer period northwesterly swell moves into the waters today but becomes moderate into the end of the week.

FXUS66 KMTR 031644 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 944 AM PDT Tue Oct 3 2023

New AVIATION

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 512 AM PDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Conditions are favoring coastal dense fog this morning, a dense fog advisory is in effect until 10 am today. Daytime temperatures will be much warmer to hotter mainly Wednesday through Saturday as a result of strengthening high pressure and large scale sinking air. Surface high pressure developing over the Great Basin will result in downsloping, warming and drying offshore breezes to the Bay Area coastline this week. Expect well above early October normal daily high temperatures developing this week, though are likely to stay below record highs at the long term sites. Nightly temperatures will cool somewhat in relatively drier air and lengthening night-time hours. Cooler onshore breezes returning to the forecast area late in the weekend and early next week.

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM PDT Tue Oct 3 2023

A 500 mb long wave ridge i.e. large scale compressional warming over the eastern Pacific continues to slowly advance eastward over our forecast area this morning. Profiler data shows slow, steady warming aloft with the marine layer depth varying between 700 and 1000 feet.
Coastal fog and stratus continue to develop since Monday evening, inland it's clear with exception of a few passing cirrus clouds. Once the sun rises surface warming will commence, mixing out the coastal fog and stratus, temperatures warming up a few degrees more than on Monday.
Highs today varying from the upper 60s to mid 70s coastside and bayside to the upper 70s to mid 80s, warmest farthest inland.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM PDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Warmer to hotter daytime temperatures beginning Wednesday and lasting through late week. The NAM model forecasts the WMC-SFO pressure gradient to near 10 mb each morning Wednesday through Friday, gusty northeast winds developing in the North Bay hills and mountains Tuesday night into Wednesday morning for example, then a little less organized northeasterly winds developing nightly later in the week with the 500 mb ridge becoming more disorganized over our forecast area. Winds and humidity nearing marginal fire weather concerns, though fuel moistures are still relatively elevated for the time of year. For what it's worth, precipitable water is not forecast to lower much during the week like it could during an offshore wind pattern. Late in the weekend and early next week onshore breezes return along with cooler temperatures.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 935 AM PDT Tue Oct 3 2023

VFR through the TAF period for much of the region as high pressure aloft compresses the marine layer. Local FG impacts Wednesday morning remaining confined to the coastal areas. Winds remain light through the TAF period as well.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Breezy onshore flow this afternoon 10-12 kts, light and variable otherwise late this morning and overnight into Wednesday morning. FEW clouds may return during the early morning hours Wednesday, though confidence in this occuring is low, and any cloud cover is likely to remain on the coastal side of the SF peninsula.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through tonight. Winds remain light and variable with the exception of this afternoon for KSNS and terminals in the vicinity of the Salinas valley where winds will be breezy this afternoon 10-12 kts. With the compression of the marine layer due to high pressure aloft, not much inland penetration of clouds and FG will occur overnight, but locations near the coast are likely to have at least some local FG impacts early Wednesday morning.

MARINE
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 234 AM PDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Breezy Northwest winds continue into midweek, but will reduce and become light for the late week. Moderate period southerly swell 12 to 14 seconds persists through the week, alongside a shorter period northwesterly swell at 8 to 10 seconds. A Longer period northwesterly swell moves into the waters today but becomes moderate into the end of the week.

CLIMATE

Record high data for this week:

Location Oct 4th Oct 5th Oct 6th ------------------------------------------------------------------ Santa Rosa 101 1920 103 1933 102 1930 Kentfield 99 1987 100 1987 97 1930 Napa 100 1987 101 1987 96 1930 Richmond 99 1987 99 1987 91 1996 Livermore 106 1980 100 1980 100 2014 San Francisco 100 1987 102 1987 94 1992 SFO 95 1987 99 1987 92 1992 Redwood City 101 1980 99 1987 99 1987 Half Moon Bay 87 1953 82 2013 87 1972 Oakland City 92 2014 96 1987 93 1976 Salinas 100 1987 105 1987 95 1972 King City 106 1944 105 1933 100 1996

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ540-575.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ570.

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Elkhorn Slough
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:35 AM PDT     4.13 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:04 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:38 AM PDT     2.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:01 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:33 PM PDT     5.27 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:47 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:43 PM PDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:34 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Elkhorn Slough, Highway 1 Bridge, California, Tide feet

Point Pinos
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:58 AM PDT     0.75 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:22 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:39 AM PDT     -0.48 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:04 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:54 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:01 PM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:42 PM PDT     0.49 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 03:28 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:48 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 06:50 PM PDT     -0.90 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 09:36 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:51 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Pinos, California Current, knots

Full Color Weather Map

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