Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pajaro Dunes, CA

UPDATE
Issued at 917 AM PDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Stratus has mixed out through the morning and is currently confined to the coastal region. The SPC has placed the interior mountains of Monterey and San Benito Counties and the eastern Santa Clara Hills in an elevated fire weather risk for tomorrow, associated with gusty winds and dry conditions in the interior.
The operations team will evaluate the forecast conditions during the upcoming forecast update and will give a fuller synopsis of the fire weather threat with the next AFD update.

DialH

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 248 AM PDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Today will be the warmest day of the week with bright sunshine inland and marine stratus clearing by the afternoon along our coastal areas as well. Deeper, gusty onshore flow will begin to overspread our area later tonight and persist into the weekend. The gusty winds later tonight into early Thursday may reach 30-40 MPH across elevated inland areas along with typical passes and gaps, with 40-50 MPH gusts possible along the immediate coast, especially near the Bay Area, Big Sur and the Santa Lucia coastlines.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 248 AM PDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Gusty winds, will persist through late Saturday and begin to ease by early Sunday morning after the second and stronger of 2 shortwave troughs associated with a closed low slowly moves inland from the Pacific Northwest. Extended guidance is struggling with our pattern for the beginning of next week and beyond. A strong dome of high pressure centered over the Ohio River Valley this weekend may result in a slow moving cut-off low to spin off of the second stronger trough passage on Sunday. That could result in weak offshore flow increasing fire weather concerns, especially if it lingers with no where to go, blocked by high pressure to the east.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1044 AM PDT Wed Jun 18 2025

VFR anticipated at most TAF sites, except Half Moon Bay and the Monterey Bay Terminals. Otherwise, generally medium confidence in forecast flight category, with low to medium confidence in surface wind forecasts. IFR will linger a little longer at KHAF, before stratus is shunted offshore by daytime heating around 21 UTC. A cold front was analyzed across the Pacific NW this morning per WPC guidance. Some hi-res guidance does suggest that winds become more NW'ly at KSTS this afternoon for a few hours. There's a brief window for MVFR BR at KSTS during the morning hours on Thursday, should winds abate. There's a brief window for MVFR stratus at KOAK during the morning hours. Otherwise, winds will remain elevated with gusts between 20 and 25 knots.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR is forecast throughout the TAF period, with medium confidence. There's some guidance that suggests a brief window from 12-15 UTC of MVFR at SFO, but confidence is too low to include at this time. Otherwise, W'ly winds will gust to around 25 knots, largely during the afternoon hours. Sustained winds will remain elevated through the entire TAF period with speeds near 12 knots.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO with VFR.

Monterey Bay Terminals...An eddy continues to swirl across Monterey Bay, but will eventually dissipate through the afternoon.
Still, intermittent IFR to borderline LIFR is forecast for a few more hours at KMRY. Confidence in timing is medium. VFR is anticipated through the evening hours with IFR Monterey Bay Terminals...An eddy cigs more probable to return at KMRY around 05Z and linger through the TAF period.
Confidence in IFR cigs is low to medium. If onshore flow is weaker than anticipated, VFR may continue through the pre-dawn hours. At KSNS, VFR will dominate the TAF cycle, with a short window of intermittent IFR during the pre-dawn hours (10-14 UTC)
on Thursday.

MARINE
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 248 AM PDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Gale Warnings are in effect for the coastal jet areas south of Point Reyes and Point Sur and across the outer coastal waters.
Hazardous conditions continue through the forecast period with gusty northwesterly winds and moderate to rough seas continue.
Significant wave heights build to 10 to 12 feet across the coastal waters Thursday into the weekend.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0- 10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.