Friday, September20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pajaro Dunes, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 7:09PM Friday September 20, 2019 8:56 AM PDT (15:56 UTC) Moonrise 10:11PMMoonset 11:55AM Illumination 60% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ535 Monterey Bay- 253 Am Pdt Fri Sep 20 2019
Today..S winds around 5 kt, becoming W 5 to 15 kt this afternoon. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 10 seconds and sw around 2 ft at 17 seconds.
Tonight..SE winds up to 10 kt. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 10 seconds and S around 2 ft at 17 seconds.
Sat..W winds 5 to 15 kt. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 10 seconds and sw around 2 ft at 18 seconds.
Sat night..NW winds up to 10 kt. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 10 seconds and sw around 2 ft at 19 seconds.
Sun..W winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 9 seconds and sw around 2 ft at 19 seconds.
Sun night..N winds 5 to 15 kt. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 11 seconds and S around 2 ft at 19 seconds.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 20 kt. NW swell 3 to 5 ft and S around 2 ft.
Tue..N winds 5 to 15 kt. W swell 3 to 5 ft and S around 2 ft. Locally lower winds and seas across sheltered portions of the bay.
PZZ500 253 Am Pdt Fri Sep 20 2019
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Northwest ease today, becoming generally light along the coast north of point sur and locally moderate in the outer waters and along the big sur coast. For Saturday, generally light winds across the waters except locally moderate in the outer waters north of point reyes. Winds increase somewhat into Sunday. A 9 to 11 second northwest swell will be the predominate wave in the waters today, with locally hazardous steep fresh swell. A lighter long period southerly swell will also be mixed in.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pajaro Dunes, CA
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location: 36.81, -121.96     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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Fxus66 kmtr 201241 ccc
afdmtr
area forecast discussion
national weather service san francisco bay area
446 am pdt Fri sep 20 2019

Synopsis A warming trend will begin on Friday and continue
through Saturday. A low pressure system moving southward to our
east early next week may create the potential for continued
warming temperatures, dry offshore flow and increased fire weather
concerns. A trough of low pressure will move through the region
late next week resulting in a big cooldown.

Discussion As of 03:07 am pdt Friday... Satellite fog product
reveals clear skies across the entire bay area. Automated sensors
at bay area airports also show clear skies with no fog.

Synoptically speak - an upper level trough is swing through the
great basin with upper level ridge building in from the west.

Building high pressure, warming 850 mb temps, and ample sunshine
will leading to warmer temperatures today. Highs will be in the
upper 60s to mid 70s near the coast, 70s and 80s bay shoreline and
interior locations. High pressure will continue to build over the
region into the weekend, but the ridge will flatten slightly
limiting full potential of warm up. None the less, temperatures
will increase another 3-5 deg f from Friday to Saturday. Highs
will be in the 70s at the coast, 70s 80s bay shoreline, and 80s to
lower 90s interior. Hi-res models indicate a slight increase in
low level moisture with the building ridge aloft early Saturday
morning. Therefore, a few patchy low clouds will be possible along
the coast.

A change in the longwave pattern begins to unfold on Sunday as the
ridge weakens and an upper level trough moves in from the nw. The
lower 500 mb and cooler airmass will lead to a slight drop in
temperatures for the northern half of the bay area. Monterey san
benito counties will hold steady. By Sunday night the trough
develops into an inside slider type of pattern - generally dry and
in the fall months can trigger hot weather and fire weather
concerns. It definitely appears that this pattern shift will do
all three: no precip, increase fire weather concerns with
offshore flow, and raise temperatures dramatically. For fire
weather concerns see fire weather below. Temperatures will
increase a tad on Monday for some locations, but the bigger warm
up will occur on Tuesday and Wednesday. A 597 dam high parked off
the west coast for Tuesday and Wednesday. To put this into
perspective the strength of the high for late september is roughly
2-3 std deviations above normal. Temperature anomalies during
this time period are impressive as well - 850mb temps approaching
22-23c or about 6 std deviations. Latest forecast point soundings
for koak put 850mb temps close to 22c, which compared to
climatology it is above the 90 percentile. So what does all of
this mean for the bay area? A late season warm up is forecast with
high temperatures well above normal. Highs on Tuesday and
Wednesday are forecast to be is forecast to build 70s 80s at the
coast, 80s bay shoreline and 90s to lower 100s interior. Thermal
belts will be in full effect at night as well thanks to warm
airmass and offshore flow. The hills will remain in the 60s and
70s at night. However, valley locations (more populated areas)
will see some minor relief at night. Said relief will limit heat
risk potential, but latest guidance does put interior locations
in the moderate risk for heat concerns.

Another pattern shift is then forecast on Thursday with a pretty
substantial drop in temperatures. 5-10 degree temperature drop is
forecast from Wednesday to Thursday as the ridge weakens and a
trough approaches from the nw. The strength of the low varies from
one model to the next, but all show an decent upper low. Further
cooling is then expected Friday and into next weekend. Interesting
to note that the pattern aloft GOES from anomalously above to
below in a matter of a few days. If the euro is to be believed
not only will it be colder, but possibly wet.

Stay tuned for this roller coaster ride of weather the next 7-10
days.

Aviation As of 4:50 am pdt Friday... WidespreadVFR with light
am winds. Air mass remains slightly too dry for cloud formation
again this morning. Onshore winds increase in the afternoon to
become locally breezy. Similar setup for tonight into tomorrow
morning but will need to watch advection of mid to upper level
moisture aloft for possibility of tighter dew point spreads cloud
formation for Friday night into Saturday morning.

Vicinity of ksfo...VFR. Breezy pm winds.

Sfo bridge approach... Similar to ksfo.

Monterey bay terminals...VFR.

Fire weather As of 02:55 am pdt Friday... A quick look at energy
release component (erc) and 100 hour fuel values are both well
below normal for the region. The below normal readings are likely
in response to the recent rain and cool weather. A warming and
drying trend is on track to develop into the weekend. There is
even a brief period of offshore flow Friday night across the north
and east bay hills. Winds will be breezy with moderate to
possibly poor humidity recoveries Friday night. Not strong enough
or long enough to warrant any red flag warnings. What it may do
is help chip away at the low ercs and high 100 hour fuels. The
inside slider mentioned above will bring a more pronounced
offshore flow event Monday into Tuesday with poor overnight
humidity recovery and gusty winds in the hills. One potential
limiting factor is the actual offshore flow gradient. Models put
the wmc-sfo gradient at 7-8 mb, decent but not strong. If this
pattern holds true a fire weather watch may be in order over the
weekend. Climatologically this is the favored time of year for
offshore flow events and red flag warnings for wind rh in the bay
area. Taking a look at the bigger picture - far norcal has had a
few wetting rain events so fire season may be near the end to the
north. Socal - not so much and fire season will keep on going.

What about the bay area? Fuels have been below normal for much of
the summer and recent cool wet weather has kept them that way.

That being said, the recent wet weather wasn't wet enough to end
fire season. Therefore, we're not out of the woods yet and we
should remain weather fire aware through the fall season.

Marine As of 04:38 am pdt Friday... Northwest winds ease today,
becoming generally light along the coast north of point sur and
locally moderate in the outer waters and along the big sur coast.

For Saturday, generally light winds across the waters except
locally moderate in the outer waters north of point reyes. Winds
increase somewhat into Sunday. A 9 to 11 second northwest swell
will be the predominate wave in the waters today, with locally
hazardous steep fresh swell. A lighter long period southerly
swell will also be mixed in.

Mtr watches warnings advisories
Tday Sca... Pt arena to pigeon pt 10-60 nm
sca... Pt pinos to pt piedras blancas 0-10 nm from 3 pm
public forecast: mm
aviation: drp
marine: drp
visit us at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46092 - MBM1 5 mi105 min ENE 5.8 57°F 58°F1013.7 hPa (+0.8)
MLSC1 - Moss Landing, South Harbor, CA 9 mi42 min E 4.1 G 13 56°F 1015 hPa50°F
ELXC1 - Elkhorn Slough Reserve, CA 12 mi71 min NNE 2.9 51°F 1013 hPa50°F
46240 - Cabrillo Point, Monterey Bay, CA (158) 13 mi56 min 57°F2 ft
MEYC1 15 mi80 min 58°F1014.3 hPa
46114 - West Monterey Bay, CA 22 mi56 min 62°F7 ft
46042 - MONTEREY - 27NM West of Monterey Bay, CA 23 mi66 min 5.8 G 5.8 58°F 59°F8 ft1013.9 hPa (+1.0)
46239 - Point Sur, CA (157) 33 mi56 min 61°F8 ft

Wind History for Monterey, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monterey Regional Airport, CA16 mi62 minN 010.00 miFair60°F50°F70%1015.6 hPa
Salinas, Salinas Municipal Airport, CA21 mi63 minSE 810.00 miFair54°F48°F80%1015.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWVI

Wind History from WVI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8SW6----CalmCalm----------NW4--N3NW4NW3CalmCalmS3SE33S6W9W9
1 day agoSW5SW7SE9SE4--CalmCalmCalmN4--N3--CalmNW33CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3SW6W7
2 days agoW11
G21
W12W12
G19
W6CalmSE7E5CalmCalmN3N3N3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalm3Calm3SW76W7

Tide / Current Tables for Moss Landing, California (2)
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Moss Landing
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:45 AM PDT     3.40 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:53 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:53 AM PDT     2.67 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:54 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:58 PM PDT     4.72 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:07 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:08 PM PDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:10 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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22.533.33.43.33.12.92.72.72.83.23.74.24.64.74.543.22.31.50.90.70.8

Tide / Current Tables for Point Pinos, California Current
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Point Pinos
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:14 AM PDT     0.50 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:39 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:53 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:03 AM PDT     -0.42 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:54 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 12:54 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:09 PM PDT     0.39 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:50 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:07 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:25 PM PDT     -0.73 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:11 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.40.50.50.30.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.3-0.200.20.30.40.30.2-0-0.3-0.5-0.7-0.7-0.5-0.3

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.