Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elkhorn, CA

UPDATE
Issued at 819 PM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025

The evening weather balloon surprised us with dry air all the way to the surface. The PW was measured at 0.39", which is in the lowest 5% of historical observations for the month of June. With this dry air, the skies are totally clear. There is still some marine influence due to onshore winds, but the marine layer has compressed to around 1,200 feet from 1,700 this morning. Even within this layer, the humidity is much lower than normal, and it's likely that most areas will stay cloud free through the night. Clear skies and dry air will likely lead to a chilly morning, but near normal 850 mb temperature should keep the low temperature records safe tonight.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 PM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025

A weak upper level trough continues to track across the PacNW and northern CA today, with upper level ridging beginning to build in for Tuesday. This will be the start of a brief warming trend putting us closer to our seasonal highs for Tuesday. The forecast challenge for this period will be trying to figure out the depth of the marine layer and the expansion of the stratus. Guidance has it varying between 1000-1700ft for the period, with the best chances for stratus redeveloping along the San Mateo and Central Coast.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 214 PM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Upper level ridging holds through Wednesday with the next hint of height falls occuring late Wednesday into Thursday. An upper level low is slated to slide down the western Canadian cost and enter the PacNW for the weekend. This will lead to a period of troughiness and temperatures falling to near normal or just below normal. Expect the summer time stratus to return, with the fine tuning of its arrival occuring as we get closer to the later portion of the work week and weekend.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1028 PM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Widespread VFR lasts into Tuesday night. Winds have reduced and are expected to be mostly light to moderate through the night. Some spotty cloud cover forms along the coast and Monterey Bay overnight, but not enough to fill over any of the TAF sites. Light winds linger into the late morning and early afternoon before moderate to gusty winds return again. These winds look to reduce again into Tuesday night as low cigs begin to build at HAF. Later that night, OAK begins to fill with IFR CIGs as well.

Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Gusts have reduced but winds remain moderate to breezy. Winds reduce further into early Tuesday, but will become breezy into the late morning. Stronger and gusty winds arrive mid Tuesday afternoon, peaking around 33 kts, but reduce again into that night.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Winds look to stay light through late Tuesday morning. Moderate west to northwest winds arrive in the late morning across the Monterey Bay, with gustier conditions affecting SNS into the mid afternoon. Winds become light again into Tuesday night with lower CIGs arriving shortly beyond the TAF period.

MARINE
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 1028 PM PDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Gusty northwest winds continue across most of the waters along with moderate to rough seas. These conditions look to last through the week and into the weekend with slightly increased swell heights. Gale force gusts will occur near the coastal jet regions of Point Reyes and Point Sur in the afternoons and look to linger into the evenings for much of the forecast.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Mry Bay.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0- 10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.