Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Adak, AK
April 25, 2024 9:52 AM HST (19:52 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:03 AM Sunset 6:56 PM Moonrise 9:07 PM Moonset 6:01 AM |
Area Discussion for - Anchorage, AK
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FXAK68 PAFC 251301 AFDAFC
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 501 AM AKDT Thu Apr 25 2024
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday)...
The upper level ridge that stretches from the Yukon through the Interior of the state can be seen well on satellite creating the large hole of clear skies this morning. However, this ridge is being weakened and elongated as a front over Kodiak Island and the Gulf of Alaska slowly pushes its way northeast and into Southcentral Alaska. Clouds associated with this front have mainly overspread the Kenai Peninsula this morning and will continue to move slowly northeastward through the day. Kodiak Island is in the rain again but it should be rather light today with only about a quarter of an inch around Kodiak City and the eastern side of the Island. After a break this evening and overnight with the passing of the front, another, wetter front will move over Kodiak for Friday. This front is the result of a wave in the north Pacific meeting up with the cold upper level low that is in the southeastern Bering Sea and will undercut Kodiak Island tomorrow. This will enhance that North Pacific system and bring about an inch and a quarter to Kodiak City Friday through Friday night.
As this upper level low moves south of Kodiak, another upper level ridge will start to build in over the Interior of the state.
This ridge will not be as strong as the current ridge. but it should allow at least partial clearing over most of Southcentral by Saturday while keeping the area generally dry. The one caveat is that the NAM model is suggesting that there will be an easterly wave that develops near the Alcan border Saturday night. The GFS hints at this feature, but is not as well defined as the NAM. This could bring some rain to the Copper River Basin late Saturday should it develop. These easterly waves are notoriously unpredictable so it could just as easily fizzle out as develop
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday morning)...
The forecast remains on track through the short-term period. A large vertically stacked continues to take up residency in the central Bering Sea this morning. Gusty and showery conditions will persist through the Central Aleutians, Eastern Aleutians, the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN), and Pribilof Islands through most today and into Friday. Showers also continue for Southwest Alaska today and into Friday as well with multiple shortwaves rotating around the broad upper low in the Bering.
Another low pressure system lifts northward through the North Pacific and to the Alaska Peninsula by Friday evening. There is a little disagreement in where the exact corridor of enhanced precipitation will set up. However, indications are that it will be somewhere between the Shumagin Islands and Kodiak Island. This low does not seem overly strong with mostly small-craft winds anticipated for the North Pacific marine zones south of the AKPEN.
Meanwhile, the main surface low once in the central Bering will continue to fill and eventually dissipate south of the Eastern Aleutians Friday afternoon as moisture lingers across the AKPEN through Saturday afternoon. This low near the AKPEN eventually weakens and dissipates through Sunday morning. In the wake of this low, the southern AKPEN will be left in a northwesterly flow regime Saturday and into Sunday with gusty northwest winds and showery rain/snow mix.
A front from a Kamchatka low moves eastward and sweeps the Western and Central Aleutian Chain Saturday and Sunday bringing mostly small-craft winds or less, and mostly rain to the area.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sun through Wed)...
The low that is currently over the Bering Sea will have meandered into the Eastern Gulf of Alaska for Sunday and slowly drift south along the western coast of North America through the early half of the week. A ridge will likely build behind the low across Southcentral. Embedded easterly waves could lead to brief showers in the Copper River Basin each day. A larger, embedded shortwave is possible for Tuesday along the ridge, but any moisture associated is still expected to be light and or showery.
Out west, a front is moving through the Bering and across the Aleutians. For Sunday, the front will be located around the central to eastern Aleutians and will reach the Pribilofs before weakening and being replaced by a larger and stronger occluded low Monday. This low will bring more moisture into the Bering Sea and Aleutians. Storm force winds look likely for the western Aleutians Monday morning, weakening to gales by Tuesday. Its front reaches the Southwest Alaska as early as Tuesday and spreading the bulk of the moisture to Southwest, the Alaska Peninsula, and Kodiak Island for Wednesday. Timing of the precipitation will depend on the position of synoptic feature, the progression, and orientation of the front. Although the overall synoptic setup is in better agreement for the extended period, the details could mean bigger differences in the QPF and wind fields across the Bering and Southwest Alaska.
rux
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 501 AM AKDT Thu Apr 25 2024
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday)...
The upper level ridge that stretches from the Yukon through the Interior of the state can be seen well on satellite creating the large hole of clear skies this morning. However, this ridge is being weakened and elongated as a front over Kodiak Island and the Gulf of Alaska slowly pushes its way northeast and into Southcentral Alaska. Clouds associated with this front have mainly overspread the Kenai Peninsula this morning and will continue to move slowly northeastward through the day. Kodiak Island is in the rain again but it should be rather light today with only about a quarter of an inch around Kodiak City and the eastern side of the Island. After a break this evening and overnight with the passing of the front, another, wetter front will move over Kodiak for Friday. This front is the result of a wave in the north Pacific meeting up with the cold upper level low that is in the southeastern Bering Sea and will undercut Kodiak Island tomorrow. This will enhance that North Pacific system and bring about an inch and a quarter to Kodiak City Friday through Friday night.
As this upper level low moves south of Kodiak, another upper level ridge will start to build in over the Interior of the state.
This ridge will not be as strong as the current ridge. but it should allow at least partial clearing over most of Southcentral by Saturday while keeping the area generally dry. The one caveat is that the NAM model is suggesting that there will be an easterly wave that develops near the Alcan border Saturday night. The GFS hints at this feature, but is not as well defined as the NAM. This could bring some rain to the Copper River Basin late Saturday should it develop. These easterly waves are notoriously unpredictable so it could just as easily fizzle out as develop
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday morning)...
The forecast remains on track through the short-term period. A large vertically stacked continues to take up residency in the central Bering Sea this morning. Gusty and showery conditions will persist through the Central Aleutians, Eastern Aleutians, the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN), and Pribilof Islands through most today and into Friday. Showers also continue for Southwest Alaska today and into Friday as well with multiple shortwaves rotating around the broad upper low in the Bering.
Another low pressure system lifts northward through the North Pacific and to the Alaska Peninsula by Friday evening. There is a little disagreement in where the exact corridor of enhanced precipitation will set up. However, indications are that it will be somewhere between the Shumagin Islands and Kodiak Island. This low does not seem overly strong with mostly small-craft winds anticipated for the North Pacific marine zones south of the AKPEN.
Meanwhile, the main surface low once in the central Bering will continue to fill and eventually dissipate south of the Eastern Aleutians Friday afternoon as moisture lingers across the AKPEN through Saturday afternoon. This low near the AKPEN eventually weakens and dissipates through Sunday morning. In the wake of this low, the southern AKPEN will be left in a northwesterly flow regime Saturday and into Sunday with gusty northwest winds and showery rain/snow mix.
A front from a Kamchatka low moves eastward and sweeps the Western and Central Aleutian Chain Saturday and Sunday bringing mostly small-craft winds or less, and mostly rain to the area.
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sun through Wed)...
The low that is currently over the Bering Sea will have meandered into the Eastern Gulf of Alaska for Sunday and slowly drift south along the western coast of North America through the early half of the week. A ridge will likely build behind the low across Southcentral. Embedded easterly waves could lead to brief showers in the Copper River Basin each day. A larger, embedded shortwave is possible for Tuesday along the ridge, but any moisture associated is still expected to be light and or showery.
Out west, a front is moving through the Bering and across the Aleutians. For Sunday, the front will be located around the central to eastern Aleutians and will reach the Pribilofs before weakening and being replaced by a larger and stronger occluded low Monday. This low will bring more moisture into the Bering Sea and Aleutians. Storm force winds look likely for the western Aleutians Monday morning, weakening to gales by Tuesday. Its front reaches the Southwest Alaska as early as Tuesday and spreading the bulk of the moisture to Southwest, the Alaska Peninsula, and Kodiak Island for Wednesday. Timing of the precipitation will depend on the position of synoptic feature, the progression, and orientation of the front. Although the overall synoptic setup is in better agreement for the extended period, the details could mean bigger differences in the QPF and wind fields across the Bering and Southwest Alaska.
rux
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