Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Portsmouth, VA

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Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 8:25PM Thursday July 18, 2019 5:43 AM EDT (09:43 UTC) Moonrise 8:49PMMoonset 6:25AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 412 Am Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 am edt this morning...
Through 7 am..SW winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Scattered showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 412 Am Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Through 7 am..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Showers and tstms likely in the evening.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Mainly S swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Fri night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Portsmouth, VA
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location: 36.929, -76.345     debug


7 Day Forecast for Chincoteague, VA
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location: 37.834, -75.409     


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 180814
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
414 am edt Thu jul 18 2019

Synopsis
High pressure remains off the southeast coast through the weekend.

A trough of low pressure will cross the region through tonight.

Otherwise, hot and humid weather will continue until Monday.

Near term through tonight
As of 400 am edt Thursday...

lingering showers and storms from late last night still hanging
on early this morning. Majority of sct showers oriented along
sfc trough in place along the SE va NE nc coastal plain early
this morning.

Only major change in the near term (or short term, for that
matter... ) was to add to heat advisory along the coastal plain.

Have added all counties along the ches bay rivers for today for
heat indices ~105 deg this aftn into this evening. Using met-
weighted blend for highs today yields temps about a category
lower than yesterday, mainly in the low to mid 90s. This is due
in large part to greater cloud coverage and higher TD values.

However, those higher dewpoint values (given lesser mixing and
aided by rainfall of late last night), will therefore bring
similar heat index values, especially along the coast in the
advisory area. In fact, dewpoints should remain similar through
this evening along the coastal plain.

Cams providing a bit of a mixed signal given convective activity
today, but do expect sct to numerous showers to re-fire this
afternoon into this evening, focused along the coast along the
weak coastal trough, where moisture pooling and best lift will
be co-located. Have gone with a 40-60 pop for sct to numerous
late aftn evening storms, with greatest coverage over the
northern neck down to the eastern tidewater. These storms could
shorten the duration of the heat advisory in spots, but think
convection will be sparse enough initially that most of the day
will be within heat advy criteria along the coast hence the
expanded area for the heat advy headline.

Very warm and muggy tonight. Partial clearing with lows in the
70s.

Short term Friday through Sunday
As of 400 am edt Thursday...

high pressure (both at the sfc and aloft) build from the se
coast west into the mid ms valley Friday through the weekend.

H85 temps btwn 20-22c bring a mainly capped airmass, suppressing
convection for the most part both Fri and sat, though a slight
chance has been maintained each day. This could break down a bit
across the north on Sunday with some late day storms possible
across the piedmont and north of ric.

Main concern will obviously be for the extreme heat (highest
since 2012) across the lower mid-atlantic region. Highs in the
mid-upr 90s nr 100, in tandem with dewpoints in the mid-upr 70s
yields heat index values 105-110 well inland, with excessive
heat criteria very possible for hampton roads and tidewater
areas. The heat peaks on Sat Sun with highs upr 90s- lwr 100s
and heat index values ~110-113 (excessive heat warning levels)
over much (if not all) of our area. Will continue to highlight
this potential in the hwo. Due to these oppressive dewpoints,
record highs will be tough to reach but record high lows appear
attainable if not likely... See climate below.

Long term Sunday night through Wednesday
As of 240 pm edt Tuesday...

the GFS and ECMWF continue to advertise a developing eastern us
trough and a weakening of the bermuda high for early next week,
although the trend is a little slower than yesterday. This results
in a break in the heat wave after Monday and also with the cold
front likely to stall either along the coast or in the carolinas,
expect a chance for showers and storms to continue through midweek,
especially along SE portions of va and NE nc. The 12z GFS seems
climatologically to be too strong in trying to develop a closed low
over the tn al by midweek. At this point prefer more of the
ecmwf solution with the NE trough being maintained farther to
the north with just a weakness lingering between the ridges over
the lower ms valley. This would be drier solution for the area
for Wednesday into the later portion of next week.

At this point have held to chance pops each day with the best chance
for rain with the frontal passage from late Monday through Tuesday
evening. Temperatures will continue to be very warm on Monday with
highs in the low to mid 90s, followed by a drop off into the mid to
upper 80s on Tuesday on Wednesday with the front moving through and
an increase in clouds.

Aviation 08z Thursday through Monday
As of 200 am edt Thursday...

sctd shower or TSTM over SE va and NE nc could affect orf and
ecg thru early this morning, so have vcsh in these tafs.

Otherwise, expect mainlyVFR conditions at the TAF sites today
into Fri morning with SW winds 5-15 kt. There will be the chance
for showers tstms this aftn into this evening, as sfc trough
lingers over the area. Any showers tstms could produce brief
restrictions in vsby along with strong wind gusts.

The chc for showers tstms is 20% or less Fri and sat, as high
pressure prevails off the SE coast. The chc for showers tstms
increases to 20-30% Sun aftn evening, then 40-50% Mon aftn.

Marine
As of 400 am edt Thursday...

overnight SW winds will increase as the trough approaches tightening
the pressure gradient a bit. Ssw winds increase to 15 kt with some
gusts to 20 kt over ches bay, and 15 to 20 kt in the coastal waters.

This will build waves to 2 ft in the bay, and seas to 3-4 ft on the
coastal waters. SCA is up for the bay through tonight. There may be
a few gust up to 20 kt.

The winds will begin to relax to 10 kt on the bay and rivers,
and 10 to 15 kt on the ocean waters Thu morning, as the trough
of low pressure stalls. Expect more storm activity on Thursday
with more of a potential for convective wind gusts for 30 kt or
greater Thu afternoon and evening.

The pressure gradient will weaken Thursday night, allowing for a
winds to decrease to 5-10 kt. This pattern will continue through the
weekend. The bermuda high will build back in late on Sunday, in
response winds will increase to 10-15 kt (15-20 kt for the
oceans zones off the nc coast).

Climate
Upcoming heatwave may challenge or break record highs and or
record high lows (esp from Fri through sun).

Richmond record high record high low
thu (7 18) 101 1977 77 2005
fri (7 19) 101 1942 77 2013
sat (7 20) 103 1930 78 2013
sun (7 21) 104 1930 77 1930
mon (7 22) 103 1952 79 2011
norfolk record high record high low
thu (7 18) 104 1942 79 1995
fri (7 19) 101 1942 84 1942
sat (7 20) 102 1942 79 1977
sun (7 21) 101 1926 80 1983
mon (7 22) 102 2011 82 2011
salisbury record high record high low
thu (7 18) 100 2012 78 2012
fri (7 19) 99 1977 78 2013
sat (7 20) 104 1930 83 2013
sun (7 21) 106 1930 77 2017
mon (7 22) 104 1930 80 2011
elizabeth city record high record high low
thu (7 18) 107 1942 79 2012
fri (7 19) 105 1942 80 2012
sat (7 20) 104 1942 78 2012
sun (7 21) 102 1987 79 1983
mon (7 22) 104 1952 79 2011

Equipment
As of 400 am edt Thursday...

kakq is offline this morning due to an equipment issue.

Technicians will be in shortly to diagnose issues and return to
service time.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for ncz012>017-
030>032-102.

Va... Heat advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for vaz077-078-
084>090-092-093-095>100-523>525.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am edt this morning for
anz630>632-634.

Synopsis... Mam
near term... Mam
short term... Mam
long term... Ess
aviation... Ajz tmg
marine... Jao cp
climate...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 1 mi61 min 85°F1013 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 3 mi55 min SSW 11 G 14 78°F 1013 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 4 mi61 min SSW 15 G 20 79°F 1012.4 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 5 mi61 min SW 14 G 17 80°F 1013 hPa
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 11 mi55 min SSW 6 G 9.9 79°F 85°F1013 hPa
44087 12 mi43 min 81°F1 ft
44064 14 mi43 min WSW 16 G 19 82°F 80°F1 ft1012.6 hPa (-1.5)
CHBV2 16 mi67 min SW 12 G 17 82°F 1012.1 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 18 mi55 min SSW 11 G 15 81°F 1013.1 hPa
44072 19 mi43 min WNW 18 G 21 82°F 83°F1 ft
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 22 mi55 min SW 18 G 22 83°F 1012.8 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 22 mi55 min SW 8.9 G 12 82°F 83°F1012.3 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 25 mi61 min SSW 12 G 14 83°F
44041 - Jamestown, VA 30 mi37 min 80°F 87°F1013 hPa
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 33 mi43 min 80°F3 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 59 mi61 min SW 5.1 G 8 80°F 85°F1012.1 hPa
44014 - VIRGINIA BEACH 64 NM East of Virginia Beach, VA 83 mi53 min SW 18 G 21 82°F 82°F4 ft1014.6 hPa (-1.0)79°F

Wind History for South Craney Island, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA3 mi1.7 hrsSSW 88.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F73°F87%1013.6 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA8 mi52 minSSW 1210.00 miFair80°F71°F74%1013 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA11 mi1.8 hrsSW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F73°F77%1013.5 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA17 mi49 minSW 1010.00 miFair81°F72°F74%1012.8 hPa
Virginia Beach, Oceana, Naval Air Station, VA18 mi47 minSW 1010.00 miOvercast79°F73°F82%1013.5 hPa
Chesapeake, Chesapeake Municipal Airport, VA19 mi48 minS 67.00 miFair76°F73°F93%1013.5 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA21 mi47 minSW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F71°F74%1012.5 hPa
Suffolk, Suffolk Municipal Airport, VA22 mi48 minN 010.00 miFair77°F73°F89%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from NGU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW9SW8SW9SW8SW9SW8SW9SW8SW9SW10SW10
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1 day agoS4S3S3S3S4CalmN4NW4W12CalmS9
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S7S7SW11SW5SW3S3S3S3S7SW7S7SW9SW8
2 days agoNE11NE8
G16
N9N9N7N7N7NE8NE6NE54NE6NE5E5E5E4SE4S5SE4S3S3S5S4S3

Tide / Current Tables for Sewells Point, Hampton Roads, Virginia
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current
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Chesapeake Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:15 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:38 AM EDT     -1.20 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:58 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:03 AM EDT     0.53 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 12:38 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:24 PM EDT     -1.19 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:34 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:22 PM EDT     1.01 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.1-0.4-0.8-1.1-1.2-0.9-0.500.40.50.40.2-0.1-0.5-0.9-1.2-1.1-0.8-0.30.20.711

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.