Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Carrollton, VA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Record to near-record high temperatures are expected again today.

2) Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected today and again on Saturday. A potentially more significant Fire WX event is possible next Monday in the wake of the cold front.

3) Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. There is a low chance for showers on Friday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but this still does not look to be a widespread soaking rain. Some areas likely see less than 0.10", though probabilities for at least 0.10" have continued to increase slightly.

DISCUSSION
As of 240 AM EDT Thursday...3

KEY MESSAGE 1...Record to near-record high temperatures are expected again today.

The overall pattern remains similar to yesterday with surface high pressure now centered off the SE CONUS coast, and strong upper ridging situated from the eastern Gulf coast to the Carolinas. The resulting persistent return flow will continue to lock in a very warm, dry SSW flow regime today. This Bermuda High setup, more typical of early to mid summer, will allow for another day of record to near record high temperatures. Today will be quite similar to yesterday, though with a bit more wind. SW winds will gust to 20-25 mph across much of the area from late morning-afternoon. Widespread lower 90s are expected, with temps a couple degrees cooler on the eastern shore (though it will still be warm here with the stronger SSW wind). Additional records may be tied or broken today (see climate section below for details on records through Sat 4/18).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Continued dry with fire weather concerns expected today and again on Saturday. A potentially more significant Fire WX event is possible next Monday in the wake of the cold front.

With high pressure dominating our weather pattern, and no appreciable rain expected through Saturday night, fire weather concerns will remain an issue to monitor each day. After collaboration with VA State Forestry and NCFS yesterday (Wednesday), another Increased Fire Danger Statement has been issued from 11 AM-8 PM from the VA Piedmont to Williamsburg and interior SE VA. Today's SPS also includes all of the Peninsula and Suffolk given the slightly stronger SW wind. The SPS also includes Northampton County, NC. The IFD statement roughly covers areas where 20-25 mph gusts are co-located with forecast min RH values at or below 30%, along with highs at or above 90F. The wind will be a little less on Friday with more cloud cover due to a passing shortwave, though very little precip is expected and min RH values will be around 30% inland (higher near the coast as the flow become onshore in the aftn). Wind and RH values will once again be around critical thresholds on Saturday west of the bay (min RH of 25-30% and gusts to perhaps 15- 20 mph). Behind the cold front, a very dry airmass moves in from the NW. Even the NBM, which has a high bias with respect to dew pts, depicts min RH values as low as 18-22% along and W of I-95 for Monday. If rainfall amounts are minimal Sunday, the combination of a breezy NW wind and very low RH at least gives the potential for a Red Flag Warning.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry weather continue through Saturday. There is a low chance for showers on Friday. A stronger cold front brings a chance for showers on Sunday, but this still does not look to be a widespread soaking rain. Some areas likely see less than 0.10", though probabilities for at least 0.10" have continued to increase slightly.

Not a whole lot of change in the forecast for Friday into Saturday.
Slightly cooler with highs in the low-mid 80s N and near the coast, to the upper 80s elsewhere on Friday as a weak shortwave brings more cloud cover to the area. Moisture return ahead of this feature will be meager, so only a few showers are possible on Friday with that shortwave. The CAMs have little to no precip with the shortwave, though some of the global models (especially the ECMWF) show the potential for localized totals of ~0.10". Not really buying this solution given our drought status and the poor moisture return.
Also, the ECMWF forecast dew pts are several degrees above consensus and it therefore has 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE. Regardless, will keep low PoPs for much of the area. Still think most areas will stay dry. One last very warm/hot and dry day on Saturday (lower 90s inland) as upper heights build again. The global models and ensembles continue to show continuity and high confidence that a stronger front crosses the area on Sunday as low pressure tracks into Ontario/Quebec. While moisture return ahead of this front will be better than what is expected on Friday, it still does not look promising for a widespread soaking rain. PoPs have increased to likely (60-70%) for most of the area (lowest in the SW). Showers are possible during the day, with a low chc of a tstm. Most of the precip looks to fall behind the front. With the front crossing the area during the day, afternoon temps likely drop into the 60s (or even 50s depending on if/where it rains). This could easily yield 24 hour temp changes on the order of 30 degrees F. Ensemble probs of 0.10"+ of rain continue to increase slightly (60- 80% across most areas), and are highest NE/lowest SW. While ensemble means show 0.10-0.20" of rain across much of the area on Sunday, GEFS/EPS/CMCE probs for 0.50"+ of rainfall is still 10% or lower for the region. Much cooler wx returns behind the front early next week, with highs mainly in the 60s Monday and lows down into the mid 30s to mid 40s for Mon night/Tue AM. Frost is possible well inland next Tue AM as high pressure settles over the area. Highs rebound to around normal Tuesday, and then back above normal Wed.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 635 AM EDT Thursday...

High pressure offshore of the region will favor VFR conditions through the 12z/16 TAF period and beyond. Skies will be mostly clear outside of high clouds through the period, though CIGs lower to 10-12kft AGL late tonight at RIC/SBY ahead of an approaching shortwave. All areas should see winds increase by late morning/early afternoon Thursday, with gusts of 20-25 kt lasting through the remainder of the afternoon. Winds diminish to ~10 kt tonight.

Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected to prevail through Saturday night. While there is a non-zero chance for a few showers Friday, most areas will stay dry, and flight restrictions are not expected. Mainly S-SW winds also prevail throughout the forecast period, as high pressure settles over the western Atlantic. At least scattered showers are expected Sunday with the next cold front.

MARINE
As of 240 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions are expected to prevail through the remainder of the week with a brief surge in winds tonight into early Friday AM.

- Solid SCA conditions expected Sunday ahead and behind a strong cold front.

Morning weather analysis shows high pressure remaing locked in placed off the Southeast coast. This is allowing winds to remain steady out of the SW between 10 to 15kt. Waves are between 1 to 2 ft across the bay and 2-3 ft with some occasional 4 ft seas south of the VA/NC border. Benign marine conditions are expected to prevail today through Saturday. Model guidance continues to hint on a stronger SW surge this evening into early Friday AM, with winds around 15 kt in the bay and 15-20 kt over the ocean. There is the potential that a few gusts may reach SCA criteria during this period and guidance suggests seas build to ~5 ft for the northern coastal waters. However, given the extremely marginal winds and seas, no headlines have been issued during this forecast update. Confidence in SCA conditions increase Sunday into Monday as a much stronger cold front moves over the area. Stronger SW flow will increase ahead of the cold front Sunday. Ahead of this front there is the potential for some shower/storms. Then as the front moves through the winds will switch out of the NW. Recent guidance in the models continue to show decent CAA behind the front. There could be the potential with a brief period of 34kt gusts. Local wind probs have increased between 20-30% of gusts greater than 34kt gusts across the southern coastal waters. If these gusts do occur they will occur with the initial surge and passage of the cold front. These elevated marine conditions will quickly lower late Monday as the pressure gradient decreases.

CLIMATE
New record highs were set yesterday, 4/15 for Richmond (93), Norfolk (91), and Salisbury (89).

Record High Temps for 4/16 - 4/18

Record Record Record High/Yr High/Yr High/Yr Location 4/16 4/17 4/18 -------- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 93 (1976) 96 (1976) 95 (1976)
Norfolk 91 (1976) 93 (2002) 95 (1896)
Salisbury 89 (1976) 92 (2002) 90 (1976)
Eliz. City 90 (1941) 92 (1976) 91 (1941)

Record High Min Temps for 4/16 - 4/18

Record Record Record High High High Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Min T/Yr Location 4/16 4/17 4/18 -------- ---- ----- ------ Richmond 64 (1912) 65 (1912) 64 (2002)
Norfolk 66 (2017) 68 (2002) 68 (2002)
Salisbury 63 (2017) 64 (2002) 65 (1918)
Eliz. City 68 (1994) 68 (1945) 65 (2002)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ012.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-096- 509>525.
MARINE...None.