Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Carrollton, VA
July 3, 2024 1:51 AM EDT (05:51 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:49 AM Sunset 8:30 PM Moonrise 2:19 AM Moonset 5:52 PM |
ANZ638 James River From James River Bridge To Hampton Roads Bridge- Tunnel- 1254 Am Edt Wed Jul 3 2024
Rest of tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.
Wed - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night - SE winds 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu - SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu night - S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night - S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Sat - S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night - S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1254 Am Edt Wed Jul 3 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
onshore flow prevails through midweek as high pressure lingers across the region. Daily storm chances will return for the second half of the week, along with elevated southerly flow.
onshore flow prevails through midweek as high pressure lingers across the region. Daily storm chances will return for the second half of the week, along with elevated southerly flow.
FXUS61 KAKQ 022350 AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 750 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure gradually settles off the coast tonight into Wednesday. Seasonally hot but remaining dry on Wednesday, with heat, humidity, and daily chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms return Independence Day into the weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
As of 740 PM EDT Tuesday...
- Key Message: Dry, pleasant with below average temperatures tonight.
1024mb surface high pressure is centered from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast this evening. Aloft, the flow is out of the N to NW on the back-side of a trough offshore. Mostly clear skies are noted on satellite with very pleasant temperatures and humidity for early July. Surface high pressure gradually shifts toward the New England coast tonight as an upper level ridge builds from the Ohio Valley to the Northeast. Mostly clear and comfortable with low temperatures ranging through the 60s, with some upper 50s for favored cool locations over the Piedmont, interior Coastal Plain, and the interior of the MD Eastern Shore. Some patchy fog is forecast over portions of the Eastern Shore for a few hours late tonight toward sunrise Wednesday.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 325 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Seasonally hot Wednesday and becoming more hot and humid Thursday and Friday.
- Rain chances return to the forecast for the afternoon into the evening on Independence Day and again on Friday. Best rain chances remain W-NW of the Richmond Metro area into the VA Piedmont.
High pressure settles offshore Wednesday as the upper ridge becomes centered over the Southeast, with the ridge axis extending NE across the Mid-Atlantic. Mostly sunny and remaining dry Wednesday. High temperatures will return to near seasonal averages ranging from around 80F/lower 80s along the coast (with ESE flow) to the mid/upper 80s inland where the wind will shift to S. Mostly clear and dry Wednesday night. Warmer and becoming more humid toward sunrise as high pressure settles off the Southeast coast. Forecast low temperatures range from the mid 60s to around 70F.
Hotter and more humid conditions will return Independence Day with increasing SSW flow as the surface high becomes centered off the Southeast coast. High temperatures range from the upper 80s/lower 90s along the coast, to the mid 90s inland. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70F during peak heating result in heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s. There is a potential for widely scattered showers/tstms developing along pre-frontal/lee-side trough Thursday afternoon and evening. Rain chances are generally 20-40% for mainly late aftn/evening tstms (highest PoPs NW of a Farmville-Richmond- Salisbury MD line).
Partly cloudy, warm and muggy/humid Thursday night with lows in the low- mid 70s. Forecast highs Friday are similar to Thursday.
However, dewpoints are slightly higher and this could push heat indices at or above 105F for central and SE VA and into NE NC.
There is a chc of afternoon showers/tstms with a lee side/pre- frontal trough lingering over the area.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 325 PM EDT Tuesday...
- Key Message: Heat and humidity return and linger for Saturday into the first part of next week. Remaining a bit unsettled with a chance for mainly late day and evening showers and storms each day.
The upper ridge will initially be positioned from the Gulf coast to the Carolinas Friday night, then slowly shifting E off the SE coast as it slowly breaks down over the weekend. This will pump hot and humid air back into the mid-Atlantic region, while also keeping a series of upper troughs well off to our NW through the weekend (over the upper midwest/northern Great Lakes). Rather weak flow at the sfc with high pressure offshore will be conducive to a general S-SW low level flow, but with some afternoon seabreeze development possible.
Overall, highs look to average in the mid-upper 90s inland, and 90- 95F closer to the coast Saturday, and perhaps a few degrees lower Sunday through Tuesday as a weakening cold front stalls or washes out in the vicinity of the area. Have remained a little below the typical high bias shown by NBM dewpoints, but still expect them to be back in the low-mid 70s for the period, which would yield heat indices in the 103-108F range Saturday and in the 100-105 range on Sunday through Tuesday. As for PoPs, expect daily chances for isolated/sctd mainly aftn/evening tstms (PoPs 20-40%), with the best chance in the piedmont and perhaps with the seabreeze, although uncertainty remains high at this time range.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 740 PM EDT Tuesday...
High pressure is centered over New England as of 23z. This is resulting in onshore flow with generally an E to ESE wind of 5-10kt. VFR at all the terminals early this evening as CU has mostly dissipated with the loss of heating and only FEW/SCT cirrus across the region. The wind becomes calm to very light out of the SE tonight. Primarily VFR tonight under a mostly clear sky. However, guidance continues to show the potential for IFR vsby at SBY after midnight. Will go with prevailing IFR vsby from 08-12z for SBY. There could also be some low stratus accompanying the fog. Some guidance shows the potential for LIFR or VLIFR vsby but confidence in coverage and timing of such a scenario is low. Additionally, some shallow ground fog is possible at PHF and perhaps ECG with the potential for brief vsby restrictions. Will include an MVFR group at PHF where experience suggests more fog than guidance typically shows.
Becoming VFR Wednesday shortly after sunrise for all terminals.
The high shifts off the coast Wednesday and the wind becomes S inland and E to SE along the coast with speeds of 5-10kt.
VFR conditions will prevail most of the time Wednesday night through Sunday. There is a potential for early morning shallow ground fog/low stratus with increasing low-level moisture. This will also lead to a chc for aftn/evening showers/tstms as a slow moving boundary approaches from the NW.
MARINE
As of 225 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key messages:
- Southeast/south winds increase to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt Wednesday evening across the Chesapeake Bay.
-South winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt across the coastal waters and lower Chesapeake Bay Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.
-A period of elevated southerly winds is possible this weekend with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible.
Afternoon sfc analysis shows strong high pressure over the NE CONUS building down into the local area, its center gradually shifting offshore. Latest wind obs indicate easterly winds at 5-10kt over most locations. At the mouth of the bay and lower bay, winds are slightly higher at 10-15kt. Winds diminish tonight to ~5kt before becoming E/SE 10-15 kt with a few gusts up to 20 kt across the bay Wed afternoon into Wed evening. Winds become S by midnight Wed night. Highest winds are expected to be across the upper bay Wed evening into Wed night where several gusts up to 20 kt are possible. Local wind probs continue to indicate a chance for sustained 18kt winds during this time period, but probs are generally limited at 20-40% in the upper bay. S winds increase to 15-20 kt late Thu afternoon into Thu evening across the coastal waters. Probs for gusts of 25kt in the coastal waters are low (<15%), but cannot entirely rule out SCAs. S winds become elevated late Fri through Sat evening with low- end SCAs possible. Daily chances for afternoon/evening storms are possible from Thu into early next week.
Waves and seas were generally 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft respectively this morning. Seas build to 3-4 ft Thu afternoon through Sat night. A brief period of 4-5 ft seas is possible across the coastal waters from Chincoteague to Cape Charles Light VA Thu evening. There is a moderate rip risk across the S beaches today (due to onshore flow and 3 ft waves) with a low rip risk across the N beaches. The rip risk across the S beaches likely increases late this afternoon into this evening as swell and wind direction become orthogonal to the coastline with tides retreating. However, given the time of day (22- 00z), will keep the rip risk moderate. Have upgraded all beaches to a moderate rip risk on Wed due to favorable swell and wind direction orthogonal to the coastline and 2-3 ft waves.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 750 PM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure gradually settles off the coast tonight into Wednesday. Seasonally hot but remaining dry on Wednesday, with heat, humidity, and daily chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms return Independence Day into the weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
As of 740 PM EDT Tuesday...
- Key Message: Dry, pleasant with below average temperatures tonight.
1024mb surface high pressure is centered from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast this evening. Aloft, the flow is out of the N to NW on the back-side of a trough offshore. Mostly clear skies are noted on satellite with very pleasant temperatures and humidity for early July. Surface high pressure gradually shifts toward the New England coast tonight as an upper level ridge builds from the Ohio Valley to the Northeast. Mostly clear and comfortable with low temperatures ranging through the 60s, with some upper 50s for favored cool locations over the Piedmont, interior Coastal Plain, and the interior of the MD Eastern Shore. Some patchy fog is forecast over portions of the Eastern Shore for a few hours late tonight toward sunrise Wednesday.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 325 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Seasonally hot Wednesday and becoming more hot and humid Thursday and Friday.
- Rain chances return to the forecast for the afternoon into the evening on Independence Day and again on Friday. Best rain chances remain W-NW of the Richmond Metro area into the VA Piedmont.
High pressure settles offshore Wednesday as the upper ridge becomes centered over the Southeast, with the ridge axis extending NE across the Mid-Atlantic. Mostly sunny and remaining dry Wednesday. High temperatures will return to near seasonal averages ranging from around 80F/lower 80s along the coast (with ESE flow) to the mid/upper 80s inland where the wind will shift to S. Mostly clear and dry Wednesday night. Warmer and becoming more humid toward sunrise as high pressure settles off the Southeast coast. Forecast low temperatures range from the mid 60s to around 70F.
Hotter and more humid conditions will return Independence Day with increasing SSW flow as the surface high becomes centered off the Southeast coast. High temperatures range from the upper 80s/lower 90s along the coast, to the mid 90s inland. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70F during peak heating result in heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s. There is a potential for widely scattered showers/tstms developing along pre-frontal/lee-side trough Thursday afternoon and evening. Rain chances are generally 20-40% for mainly late aftn/evening tstms (highest PoPs NW of a Farmville-Richmond- Salisbury MD line).
Partly cloudy, warm and muggy/humid Thursday night with lows in the low- mid 70s. Forecast highs Friday are similar to Thursday.
However, dewpoints are slightly higher and this could push heat indices at or above 105F for central and SE VA and into NE NC.
There is a chc of afternoon showers/tstms with a lee side/pre- frontal trough lingering over the area.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 325 PM EDT Tuesday...
- Key Message: Heat and humidity return and linger for Saturday into the first part of next week. Remaining a bit unsettled with a chance for mainly late day and evening showers and storms each day.
The upper ridge will initially be positioned from the Gulf coast to the Carolinas Friday night, then slowly shifting E off the SE coast as it slowly breaks down over the weekend. This will pump hot and humid air back into the mid-Atlantic region, while also keeping a series of upper troughs well off to our NW through the weekend (over the upper midwest/northern Great Lakes). Rather weak flow at the sfc with high pressure offshore will be conducive to a general S-SW low level flow, but with some afternoon seabreeze development possible.
Overall, highs look to average in the mid-upper 90s inland, and 90- 95F closer to the coast Saturday, and perhaps a few degrees lower Sunday through Tuesday as a weakening cold front stalls or washes out in the vicinity of the area. Have remained a little below the typical high bias shown by NBM dewpoints, but still expect them to be back in the low-mid 70s for the period, which would yield heat indices in the 103-108F range Saturday and in the 100-105 range on Sunday through Tuesday. As for PoPs, expect daily chances for isolated/sctd mainly aftn/evening tstms (PoPs 20-40%), with the best chance in the piedmont and perhaps with the seabreeze, although uncertainty remains high at this time range.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 740 PM EDT Tuesday...
High pressure is centered over New England as of 23z. This is resulting in onshore flow with generally an E to ESE wind of 5-10kt. VFR at all the terminals early this evening as CU has mostly dissipated with the loss of heating and only FEW/SCT cirrus across the region. The wind becomes calm to very light out of the SE tonight. Primarily VFR tonight under a mostly clear sky. However, guidance continues to show the potential for IFR vsby at SBY after midnight. Will go with prevailing IFR vsby from 08-12z for SBY. There could also be some low stratus accompanying the fog. Some guidance shows the potential for LIFR or VLIFR vsby but confidence in coverage and timing of such a scenario is low. Additionally, some shallow ground fog is possible at PHF and perhaps ECG with the potential for brief vsby restrictions. Will include an MVFR group at PHF where experience suggests more fog than guidance typically shows.
Becoming VFR Wednesday shortly after sunrise for all terminals.
The high shifts off the coast Wednesday and the wind becomes S inland and E to SE along the coast with speeds of 5-10kt.
VFR conditions will prevail most of the time Wednesday night through Sunday. There is a potential for early morning shallow ground fog/low stratus with increasing low-level moisture. This will also lead to a chc for aftn/evening showers/tstms as a slow moving boundary approaches from the NW.
MARINE
As of 225 PM EDT Tuesday...
Key messages:
- Southeast/south winds increase to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt Wednesday evening across the Chesapeake Bay.
-South winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt across the coastal waters and lower Chesapeake Bay Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.
-A period of elevated southerly winds is possible this weekend with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible.
Afternoon sfc analysis shows strong high pressure over the NE CONUS building down into the local area, its center gradually shifting offshore. Latest wind obs indicate easterly winds at 5-10kt over most locations. At the mouth of the bay and lower bay, winds are slightly higher at 10-15kt. Winds diminish tonight to ~5kt before becoming E/SE 10-15 kt with a few gusts up to 20 kt across the bay Wed afternoon into Wed evening. Winds become S by midnight Wed night. Highest winds are expected to be across the upper bay Wed evening into Wed night where several gusts up to 20 kt are possible. Local wind probs continue to indicate a chance for sustained 18kt winds during this time period, but probs are generally limited at 20-40% in the upper bay. S winds increase to 15-20 kt late Thu afternoon into Thu evening across the coastal waters. Probs for gusts of 25kt in the coastal waters are low (<15%), but cannot entirely rule out SCAs. S winds become elevated late Fri through Sat evening with low- end SCAs possible. Daily chances for afternoon/evening storms are possible from Thu into early next week.
Waves and seas were generally 1-2 ft and 2-3 ft respectively this morning. Seas build to 3-4 ft Thu afternoon through Sat night. A brief period of 4-5 ft seas is possible across the coastal waters from Chincoteague to Cape Charles Light VA Thu evening. There is a moderate rip risk across the S beaches today (due to onshore flow and 3 ft waves) with a low rip risk across the N beaches. The rip risk across the S beaches likely increases late this afternoon into this evening as swell and wind direction become orthogonal to the coastline with tides retreating. However, given the time of day (22- 00z), will keep the rip risk moderate. Have upgraded all beaches to a moderate rip risk on Wed due to favorable swell and wind direction orthogonal to the coastline and 2-3 ft waves.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Air | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KLFI LANGLEY AFB,VA | 8 sm | -- | no data | -- | 75°F | 68°F | 78% | 30.20 | ||
| KNGU NORFOLK NS (CHAMBERS FLD),VA | 8 sm | 52 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 68°F | 64°F | 88% | 30.22 | |
| KPHF NEWPORT NEWS/WILLIAMSBURG INTL,VA | 12 sm | 57 min | ENE 03 | 10 sm | Clear | 64°F | 63°F | 94% | 30.22 | |
| KORF NORFOLK INTL,VA | 13 sm | 60 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 72°F | 66°F | 83% | 30.20 | |
| KCPK CHESAPEAKE RGNL,VA | 22 sm | 16 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 63°F | 61°F | 94% | 30.21 | |
| KSFQ SUFFOLK EXECUTIVE,VA | 22 sm | 36 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 66°F | 66°F | 100% | 30.22 | |
| KNTU OCEANA NAS /APOLLO SOUCEK FIELD/,VA | 24 sm | 55 min | ESE 03 | 10 sm | Clear | 72°F | 70°F | 94% | 30.19 |
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KNGU
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KNGU
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KNGU
Wind History graph: NGU
(wind in knots)Newport News
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:20 AM EDT 0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:37 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:50 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 07:10 AM EDT 2.25 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:06 PM EDT -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:42 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 07:43 PM EDT 3.08 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:29 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:20 AM EDT 0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:37 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 05:50 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 07:10 AM EDT 2.25 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:06 PM EDT -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:42 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 07:43 PM EDT 3.08 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:29 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Newport News, James River, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.4 |
| 1 am |
| 0.1 |
| 2 am |
| 0.1 |
| 3 am |
| 0.5 |
| 4 am |
| 1 |
| 5 am |
| 1.6 |
| 6 am |
| 2 |
| 7 am |
| 2.2 |
| 8 am |
| 2.1 |
| 9 am |
| 1.8 |
| 10 am |
| 1.2 |
| 11 am |
| 0.6 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 1 pm |
| -0 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 2 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 3 |
| 8 pm |
| 3.1 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.8 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.6 |
Chesapeake Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:30 AM EDT -1.26 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:35 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 03:42 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:48 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 05:49 AM EDT 0.57 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:22 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:14 PM EDT -1.32 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:20 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:40 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 06:12 PM EDT 1.12 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:27 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:03 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:30 AM EDT -1.26 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:35 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 03:42 AM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:48 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 05:49 AM EDT 0.57 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:22 AM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:14 PM EDT -1.32 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:20 PM EDT 0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:40 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 06:12 PM EDT 1.12 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:27 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 10:03 PM EDT -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current, knots
| 12 am |
| -1.2 |
| 1 am |
| -1.2 |
| 2 am |
| -0.9 |
| 3 am |
| -0.4 |
| 4 am |
| 0.1 |
| 5 am |
| 0.5 |
| 6 am |
| 0.6 |
| 7 am |
| 0.4 |
| 8 am |
| 0.1 |
| 9 am |
| -0.3 |
| 10 am |
| -0.7 |
| 11 am |
| -1.1 |
| 12 pm |
| -1.3 |
| 1 pm |
| -1.2 |
| 2 pm |
| -0.8 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 1 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 0 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.5 |
Wakefield, VA,
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