Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Carrollton, VA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Remaining hot and dry, with well above normal temperatures continuing through Wednesday. Rain chances increase Wednesday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Best rain chances late Wednesday remains over northern portions of the area.

2) An increasingly unsettled and cooler pattern looks to evolve for the late week period with more uncertainty in temperatures over the Memorial Day Weekend.

DISCUSSION
As of 250 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining hot and dry, with well above normal temperatures continuing through Wednesday. Rain chances increase Wednesday night ahead of an approaching cold front. Best rain chances late Wednesday remains over northern portions of the area.

Building ridging and minimal low-level moisture should lock in a summer-like heat and continued dry conditions for the first half of the week. Widespread low-mid 90s are expected inland each day, with lower 90s closer to the immediate coast due to H85 temps maxing out between 18-20 deg C, deep mixing, and continued low-level SSW flow. Temps will be similar each day, perhaps increasing a degree or so each day, culminating with the warmest day of the week on Wednesday. The strong mixing and dry antecedent conditions will continue to allow early morning dewpoints to mix out by afternoon, and fall back into the upper 50s to low 60s each day. This will keep heat indices close to actual air temps. The downside to that point is that limited moisture return and downslope flow aloft will also likely maintain dry wx across the region at least into Wed afternoon.

By Wednesday afternoon, upper heights begin to fall ahead of a cold front approaching the region from our NW. Showers and storms should develop to our northwest ahead of the boundary by midday Wednesday, focused mainly on the pre-frontal lee trough. Given a gradual slowing trend in recent model guidance, it appears much of the convection most likely stays north and west of the RIC Metro Wed evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An increasingly unsettled and cooler pattern looks to evolve for the late week period with more uncertainty in temperatures over the Memorial Day Weekend.

A shortwave trough is progged to lift across the upper Midwest into eastern Canada Wednesday into Thursday. This will serve to dampen to SE ridge, while also allowing cool high pressure to settle over the Great Lakes and SE Canada. While there remain model differences, the previously referenced cold front looks to slowly drop south across the area on Thursday, then lingers across the area Thu evening before pushing south of the local area Thu night into Friday. With the front moving south of the area, expect a cooler, cloudy day with mainly stratiform rain/drizzle Thu night/Friday, though it is possible the warm sector could linger a bit later into Thu across extreme SE portions of the area, allowing for few rumbles of thunder.

Temps may struggle to get out of the lower 60s on Thursday and Friday (especially N/NE) as cool high pressure wedges down into the region. While the Thursday forecast is a bit higher confidence with the front dropping into the region, the temperature forecast on Friday and especially Saturday remains highly uncertain, and depends on the exact position of the front. 00z LREF continues to feature model spread in 2m temperatures of ~12-15 deg F for Friday across much of the area! While some uncertainty lingers into Saturday, especially inland, it does appear as if the wedge airmass erodes quickly, as the parent high exits to the east and the front lifts back north of the local area into the upcoming weekend. Some additional isolated to scattered showers and a few storms (along with warmer temps) are possible Sat/Sun, but by no means does the holiday weekend look to be a washout. Gradual warming is expected as we head into early next week, as mid-level ridging rebuilds east of the Rockies early next week.

As for precipitation amounts, ensemble (EPS/GEPS/GEFS)
probabilities for at least 0.5" of 48-hour total rainfall for the Wed night-Fri Night period still hover around or just above 50-70% across the entire CWA However, it is hard to stay as optimistic as ensemble/NBM guidance, given that 1) a potentially unfavorable FROPA timing for convection (Model timing with the front is even later into Wed night/early Thu. Wednesday's convection looks likely to be focused to our NNW, with Thursday's heavier rainfall potentially to be suppressed to our south) and 2) several recent rain events have underperformed with respect to Day 3-5 model/ensemble forecasts.

AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 615 AM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions currently across area terminals look to prevail through the 12z/17 TAF period, as high pressure remains anchored offshore. Aside from some SCT high clouds along the coast this morning, mainly clear/sunny conditions across the area today. Winds remain light ~5-8 kt out of the SSW this morning, backing to the SSE this afternoon 10 kt with occasional gusts to ~15-18 kt.

Outlook...VFR conditions expected through midweek, as high pressure remains in control. South/southwest winds each afternoon may gust to 15-20kt each day through Wed. Next chance of rain not expected until late Wed or Thursday.

MARINE
As of 240 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Mainly Sub-SCA conditions are expected across the local waters through at least mid-week with primarily southerly winds.

- A front moves through late week, bringing the next chance at SCA conditions.

Expansive high pressure remains parked across the western Atlantic and extends across the Southeast. Winds remain out of the SW at generally 10 to 15 kt across the local waters. Seas are 2-3 ft across the coastal waters and 1 ft or less in the Bay and rivers (1- 2 ft at the mouth of the Bay). Through mid-week, high pressure will remain parked across the western Atlantic in a typical summertime Bermuda High configuration. Winds remain primarily SSW around 10 to 15 kt outside of the daily mid to late-afternoon nearshore seabreeze. The afternoon breeze will likely bring additional localized gusts of 15-20 kt to the lower Chesapeake Bay and nearshore ocean waters each afternoon before winds veer back offshore and diminish through the overnight. These surges will be relatively brief and likely will not require any SCAs. Expect generally benign marine conditions to prevail through at least midweek. The next cold front looks to cross the waters some time early Thursday morning with increasing NE winds late week. At this time, in-house wind probs suggest that even behind the front, only brief marginal SCA conditions are possible and conditions may stay under SCA criteria through next weekend. Whether or not the aforementioned front actually moves through or stalls across the area will play an important role in the wind regime late week into the weekend.

CLIMATE
As of 145 AM Monday...

Record High Temps for 5/18 - 5/20

Record Record Record High/Year High/Year High/Year Location 5/18 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- ------ Richmond 95 (1962) 97 (1962) 97 (2022)
Norfolk 95 (1877) 96 (1880) 98 (1996)
Salisbury 96 (1911) 97 (2011) 98 (1911)
Eliz. City 93 (1987) 95 (1996) 98 (1996)

Record High Min Temps for 5/18- 5/20

Record Record Record High High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 5/18 5/19 5/20 -------- ---- ----- ------ Richmond 72 (2015) 71 (1997) 71 (2018)
Norfolk 75 (1995) 72 (2017) 73 (1996)
Salisbury 71 (1953) 70 (1929) 70 (2018)
Eliz. City 73 (1995) 72 (2018) 73 (2018)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.