Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Carrollton, VA

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
As of 1100 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Severe Tstm Watch has been cancelled for all remaining zones, with the final line of showers and storms now pushing to the Albemarle Sound.

We had a large amount of storm damage reports from late aftn through the evening today, almost exclusively from wind damage, with a few reports of small hail.

For the overnight period, have held onto likely PoPs in NE NC through around 06Z, with drying conditions then taking over from the NW. Clearing out, and cooler with lows in the low 60s NW to the upper 60s to low 70s along the SE coast.

SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 338 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- A short-lived reprieve from the hot temperatures Friday, with dry conditions and temperatures back to "only" seasonal levels.

After the "cold" front moves through tonight, temperatures will briefly drop back closer to normal on Friday with highs in mid to upper 80s. The shortwave will start to move offshore, but subtle NW flow aloft will linger through the day on Friday before finally starting to flatten. As the shortwave clears the coast and moves further offshore during the day, cloud cover will diminish and mostly clear skies are expected for a majority of the day. Dew points will drop into the 60s, and we not expecting any heat headlines for Friday. An expansive 500 mb ridge will gradually move from the southern Plains towards the Mid-Atlantic region on Saturday. This will be the main player in the coming heat wave that is expected to impact the region.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 349 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Temperatures ramp back up over the weekend into early next week. Summer heat and moderate humidity levels expected Sunday through the middle of next week. Heat headlines are likely to be needed for (at least) portions of the area for much of next week.

Rapid height rises are expected through next week as the almost 600 dm high parks itself over the East Coast through mid-next week, centered over the Mid-Atlantic region. Temperatures will soar into the mid-upper 90s by Sunday, then will reach the upper 90s to near 100 degrees (mid 90s along the immediate coast) Monday and Tuesday.
Looking back at climate data, Richmond has only recorded 3 or more days in row of 100+ degree high temperatures 13 times throughout the entire climate record dating back to 1871. If this forecast holds, there is a chance that this heat wave will add a 14th time to that list. Dew points will be in the low to possibly mid 70s, so heat indices will reach 105 degrees Sunday and Heat Advisories will likely be needed and could be nearing Extreme Heat Warning Criteria in some areas (110+ degrees) next Monday and Tuesday.
Wednesday and Thursday will still see well above normal temperatures but could drop at least a degree or two in terms of high temperatures, so not much of a reprieve from the heat is expected through next week
Stay cool

AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 800 PM EDT Thursday...

Flight restrictions will continue for ECG through ~06Z, but elsewhere, mainly VFR conditions will prevail.

Outlook: Looking ahead, Dry and VFR conditions are expected to prevail late tonight/early Friday through the weekend and into early next week, as strong high pressure builds into the region.

MARINE
As of 338 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Small Craft Advisories in effect through late tonight/early Friday morning, now including the northern coastal waters.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon/evening may result in higher winds and waves.

- Benign marine conditions return Friday through the forecast period as high pressure builds into the region.

With high pressure well off the Carolina coast and low pressure over the Great Lakes, the pressure gradient (along with well-mixing) is producing some gustier winds. Currently out of the SW, winds are 10- 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in both the Ches. Bay and coastal waters. Waves and seas are currently 1-2 ft and 3-4 ft, respectively. Small Craft Advisories are currently in effect for all rivers and the Ches. Bay for the gustier winds until 06z for all rivers and 12z for the bay.

A front will move over the waters late afternoon/evening today, which will bring showers and storms. Some thunderstorms may be severe and bring stronger winds and seas. Special Marine Warnings will be issued to reflect any hazards. Behind the front, confidence has increased that the seas in the northern coastal waters will increase to 4-5 ft. SCA headlines have been issued for late this afternoon into early morning to reflect this. Waves in the bay will also increase slightly to 2-3 ft.

While the seas and waves increase behind the convection, winds will rapidly drop and shift out of the NW. Once the winds drop below SCA criteria, they will likely stay below criteria for the remainder of the forecast period. The only exception may be Saturday night, as winds are currently forecast at 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the bay as a shortwave moves over the region. Otherwise, high pressure builds over the area this weekend into mid week bringing benign marine conditions.

CLIMATE
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Sun 6/22-Wed 6/25

Date Richmond Norfolk Salisbury Eliz. City 06-22 101(1942) 99(1981) 98(1988) 98(1942)
06-23 101(1988) 99(2024) 99(1988) 99(2011)
06-24 102(2010) 101(1880) 100(1914) 99(2010)
06-25 100(1952) 100(1952) 99(1914) 100(1952)

Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures Sun 6/22-Wed 6/25

Date Richmond Norfolk Salisbury Eliz. City 06-22 76(2015) 79(2015) 75(1988) 76(1981)
06-23 78(2024) 79(2015) 75(1929) 78(2015)
06-24 78(2010) 79(1994) 75(1969) 76(2011)
06-25 76(1921) 79(1880) 75(1909) 76(1949)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630>632-634.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ635>638.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652.