Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Puxico, MO
July 3, 2024 12:49 AM CDT (05:49 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:46 AM Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 2:15 AM Moonset 5:49 PM |
FXUS63 KPAH 022247 AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 547 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A Heat Advisory will be in effect from 12-7 PM CDT Wednesday for parts of southeast MO, southern and southeast IL, western KY, and southwest IN.
- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening and again late Thursday night. Damaging wind gusts and heavy rain/flash flooding will be the primary hazards.
- Turning drier and more comfortable for the weekend, with a small chance of thunderstorms returning to the forecast early next week.
UPDATE
Issued at 544 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 158 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Today and Tonight...High pressure centered over the Mid- Atlantic continues to bring plenty of sunshine and seasonably warm temperatures. As southerly return flow increases, dew point temperatures will continue to creep towards 70 degrees and higher overnight. This will bring much warmer low temperatures tonight, only falling into the lower to middle 70s in most areas.
Wednesday through Friday...The heat and humidity will surge back into the area Wednesday. High temperatures will reach the lower to middle 90s as 850 mb temperatures climb to 20-25C and dew points continue to climb into the middle to upper 70s. However, the potential for debris cloud cover and possibly a few showers and storms from storms firing to our NW in the morning and early afternoon hours complicates things. Felt confident enough to issue a Heat Advisory from 17-24z Wednesday for most of the area, save for parts of southeast MO and southwest IL (from Perryville, MO, to Wayne City, IL and points to the north and west).
As the afternoon progresses, an approaching cold front will trigger scattered thunderstorm development in the afternoon and evening hours. Model guidance shows about 2000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE developing, and modest shear of 25-35 kts in the lowest 6 km. DCAPE values will also be robust, at 1000-1500 J/kg. This will support clusters and small bowing structures with a damaging wind threat primarily. Heavy rain and potentially some flash flooding will also be a concern. With the frontal boundary becoming stationary through the forecast area, multiple rounds of training storms are possible. The latest NAEFS guidance continues to show PWAT values in the 95-99th percentile and along with similar values of 1000-850 mb specific humidity. The latest WPC QPF has trended a bit south with the heaviest rain axis, with an area of 2-4" forecast across parts of southeast MO into southwest IL. Elsewhere is still progged to receive roughly 1-2" of rain through Thursday night.
For Independence Day activities on Thursday, showers and thunderstorms will persist through the morning and early afternoon hours before a bit of break arrives for the mid/late afternoon and evening hours. There will likely still be areas of precipitation, but the overall intensity looks to be light.
However, it will still be very humid, with dew point temperatures in the middle to upper 70s continuing into the evening. High temperatures will again reach the lower 90s, with heat index values in the 95-105 degree range. Cannot rule out needing another Heat Advisory for parts of the area as well Thursday afternoon.
Another weak shortwave will kick off more thunderstorms Thursday night to our west in the Ozarks, and these look to reach our region very late Thursday night into Friday morning.
Cannot rule out a few strong to severe storms with this activity either, especially if they grow upscale into an MCS. Damaging winds and heavy rain would again be the primary threats.
The shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually sag south of the region Friday afternoon into Friday night. High temperatures will be a bit cooler on Friday, in the middle to upper 80s. Less humid air will filter into the area Friday night, allowing low temperatures to fall into the 60s.
Saturday through Monday...H5 heights will gradually increase as we go into the weekend, with an upper-level low across the northern Great Lakes. This will filter slightly cooler and less humid air into the area. High temperatures will still reach the middle to upper 80s, with dew point temperatures in the middle 60s. Overnight low temperatures will be comfortable as well, mainly in the 60s. Our next chance of precipitation will arrive late Sunday night into Monday as a shortwave trough moves into the central Great Plains.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 544 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
A cold front approaches late tonight and tmrw. Associated showers/storms will begin blowing off some mid and high level bases late tonight, offering lowering Visual Flight Rules CIGS.
As the front nears the FA tmrw during peak diurnal heating, showers/storms will become active with associated restrictions to CIGS/VSBYS entering the planning phase hours of the forecast.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ILZ077-078- 083-086>094.
MO...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ087- 108>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory from noon CDT /1 PM EDT/ to 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ Wednesday for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KYZ001>022.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 547 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A Heat Advisory will be in effect from 12-7 PM CDT Wednesday for parts of southeast MO, southern and southeast IL, western KY, and southwest IN.
- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening and again late Thursday night. Damaging wind gusts and heavy rain/flash flooding will be the primary hazards.
- Turning drier and more comfortable for the weekend, with a small chance of thunderstorms returning to the forecast early next week.
UPDATE
Issued at 544 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 158 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Today and Tonight...High pressure centered over the Mid- Atlantic continues to bring plenty of sunshine and seasonably warm temperatures. As southerly return flow increases, dew point temperatures will continue to creep towards 70 degrees and higher overnight. This will bring much warmer low temperatures tonight, only falling into the lower to middle 70s in most areas.
Wednesday through Friday...The heat and humidity will surge back into the area Wednesday. High temperatures will reach the lower to middle 90s as 850 mb temperatures climb to 20-25C and dew points continue to climb into the middle to upper 70s. However, the potential for debris cloud cover and possibly a few showers and storms from storms firing to our NW in the morning and early afternoon hours complicates things. Felt confident enough to issue a Heat Advisory from 17-24z Wednesday for most of the area, save for parts of southeast MO and southwest IL (from Perryville, MO, to Wayne City, IL and points to the north and west).
As the afternoon progresses, an approaching cold front will trigger scattered thunderstorm development in the afternoon and evening hours. Model guidance shows about 2000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE developing, and modest shear of 25-35 kts in the lowest 6 km. DCAPE values will also be robust, at 1000-1500 J/kg. This will support clusters and small bowing structures with a damaging wind threat primarily. Heavy rain and potentially some flash flooding will also be a concern. With the frontal boundary becoming stationary through the forecast area, multiple rounds of training storms are possible. The latest NAEFS guidance continues to show PWAT values in the 95-99th percentile and along with similar values of 1000-850 mb specific humidity. The latest WPC QPF has trended a bit south with the heaviest rain axis, with an area of 2-4" forecast across parts of southeast MO into southwest IL. Elsewhere is still progged to receive roughly 1-2" of rain through Thursday night.
For Independence Day activities on Thursday, showers and thunderstorms will persist through the morning and early afternoon hours before a bit of break arrives for the mid/late afternoon and evening hours. There will likely still be areas of precipitation, but the overall intensity looks to be light.
However, it will still be very humid, with dew point temperatures in the middle to upper 70s continuing into the evening. High temperatures will again reach the lower 90s, with heat index values in the 95-105 degree range. Cannot rule out needing another Heat Advisory for parts of the area as well Thursday afternoon.
Another weak shortwave will kick off more thunderstorms Thursday night to our west in the Ozarks, and these look to reach our region very late Thursday night into Friday morning.
Cannot rule out a few strong to severe storms with this activity either, especially if they grow upscale into an MCS. Damaging winds and heavy rain would again be the primary threats.
The shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually sag south of the region Friday afternoon into Friday night. High temperatures will be a bit cooler on Friday, in the middle to upper 80s. Less humid air will filter into the area Friday night, allowing low temperatures to fall into the 60s.
Saturday through Monday...H5 heights will gradually increase as we go into the weekend, with an upper-level low across the northern Great Lakes. This will filter slightly cooler and less humid air into the area. High temperatures will still reach the middle to upper 80s, with dew point temperatures in the middle 60s. Overnight low temperatures will be comfortable as well, mainly in the 60s. Our next chance of precipitation will arrive late Sunday night into Monday as a shortwave trough moves into the central Great Plains.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 544 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
A cold front approaches late tonight and tmrw. Associated showers/storms will begin blowing off some mid and high level bases late tonight, offering lowering Visual Flight Rules CIGS.
As the front nears the FA tmrw during peak diurnal heating, showers/storms will become active with associated restrictions to CIGS/VSBYS entering the planning phase hours of the forecast.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ILZ077-078- 083-086>094.
MO...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ087- 108>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory from noon CDT /1 PM EDT/ to 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ Wednesday for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KYZ001>022.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KPOF
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KPOF
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Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KPOF
Wind History graph: POF
(wind in knots)
Paducah, KY,
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