Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Puxico, MO
November 3, 2024 4:59 AM CST (10:59 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:26 AM Sunset 5:03 PM Moonrise 8:39 AM Moonset 6:05 PM |
NEW! Add second zone forecast
Area Discussion for Paducah, KY
Hide  HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KPAH 030928 AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 328 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Temperatures will climb into the 75-80 range over much of the region today and tomorrow and Monday, well above the normal high temperatures of low to mid 60s.
- A chance of showers and thunderstorm is forecast from southeast Missouri into northern/western portions of southern Illinois today through Monday night with the best chances tonight. Some models are shifting towards torrential rainfall in the Ozark Foothills tonight into Monday morning, though confidence is low.
- Widespread showers and a few thunderstorm are expected Tuesday into Tuesday night, as a cold front passes, with most locations receiving around an inch of rain.
- For Wednesday through next Saturday, unsettled conditions are expected with daily chances of rain and continued mild temperatures.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 328 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2024
High pressure continues to slowly drift eastward, allowing for surface winds to shift towards the SSE today. Ridging builds into the northeast while a trough digs into the Desert Southwest. A series of disturbances today and tomorrow follow the jet to the northeast from around Oklahoma towards Chicago.
Models generally agree on there being two main waves of moisture, the first this evening into tomorrow, but disagree on positioning. In the HRRR, there has been a shift towards the southeast in the 00Z runs with the heavy rainfall plume this evening through Monday morning. A couple ensemble members (the ARW and HRRR) track an area of 3-6+ inches of rain near the CWA border near the Ozarks. The 06Z HRRR only slightly pulled back on the eastward extent of heavy rain. Other hi-res and global models are drier, leaving a situation with significant rainfall is a distinctly possible but outlier scenario. In the NAEFS ensemble, PWs and IVT exceed the 99th percentile from SW to East-Central Missouri, just outside the Quad State; these sorts of percentiles should land wherever the heavy rain band sets up.
At this time, the choice was made to hold off on a Flood Watch for the western four for now, favoring waiting for the 12Z runs to see if this shift in hi-res models snaps back or gains additional model support to increase confidence. We have had a very dry October, with Halloween keeping soils from being too dry, so are in a good spot relative to flood risk; 6 hour flash flood guidance is around 3.5 inches. It will require the higher end amounts to get flooding going, but the hilly terrain of the Ozark Foothills is more susceptible than flatter terrain by the bootheel. A slight risk ERO covers the Ozark Foothills tonight and tomorrow. The convective environment decreases on approach to the Quad State, keeping the D2 marginal risk limited to the westernmost counties of the CWA, as instability remains limited.
The second round of moisture has greater model agreement to it when it comes to amounts. The primary system rounds the base of the trough and lifts northeastward towards the Great Lakes, dragging a cold front across the Quad State. Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are expected, again with a limited convective environment. Lightning and heavy rain will be the main impacts, with around an inch of rain Tuesday through Tuesday night across the region. A broad marginal risk ERO is in place for D3 but flooding issues Tuesday are likely to be minor and brief, except in any areas that get several inches of rain with round one.
The front stalls out in Tennessee Wednesday-Thursday keeping slight chance to chance PoPs in portions of the Quad State with the best chance in the Southern Pennyrile. Temperatures will be much cooler compared to Sunday-Monday, but still remain a little above normal. Models form a cutoff low in the Eastern Rockies emerging into the Plains, but disagree fairly widely on positioning. This will be one to keep an eye on for Friday into next weekend.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat Nov 2 2024
VFR conditions are anticipated through Sunday as high and mid level cloud cover increases through the period. East winds around 5 knots tonight will pick up from the southeast around 10 knots with occasional gusts of 15 to 20 knots on Sunday.
There is a very small chance that a stray shower could impact the KCGI or KMVN terminals by late morning or early afternoon Sunday, but most of the activity should remain to the west.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 328 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Temperatures will climb into the 75-80 range over much of the region today and tomorrow and Monday, well above the normal high temperatures of low to mid 60s.
- A chance of showers and thunderstorm is forecast from southeast Missouri into northern/western portions of southern Illinois today through Monday night with the best chances tonight. Some models are shifting towards torrential rainfall in the Ozark Foothills tonight into Monday morning, though confidence is low.
- Widespread showers and a few thunderstorm are expected Tuesday into Tuesday night, as a cold front passes, with most locations receiving around an inch of rain.
- For Wednesday through next Saturday, unsettled conditions are expected with daily chances of rain and continued mild temperatures.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 328 AM CST Sun Nov 3 2024
High pressure continues to slowly drift eastward, allowing for surface winds to shift towards the SSE today. Ridging builds into the northeast while a trough digs into the Desert Southwest. A series of disturbances today and tomorrow follow the jet to the northeast from around Oklahoma towards Chicago.
Models generally agree on there being two main waves of moisture, the first this evening into tomorrow, but disagree on positioning. In the HRRR, there has been a shift towards the southeast in the 00Z runs with the heavy rainfall plume this evening through Monday morning. A couple ensemble members (the ARW and HRRR) track an area of 3-6+ inches of rain near the CWA border near the Ozarks. The 06Z HRRR only slightly pulled back on the eastward extent of heavy rain. Other hi-res and global models are drier, leaving a situation with significant rainfall is a distinctly possible but outlier scenario. In the NAEFS ensemble, PWs and IVT exceed the 99th percentile from SW to East-Central Missouri, just outside the Quad State; these sorts of percentiles should land wherever the heavy rain band sets up.
At this time, the choice was made to hold off on a Flood Watch for the western four for now, favoring waiting for the 12Z runs to see if this shift in hi-res models snaps back or gains additional model support to increase confidence. We have had a very dry October, with Halloween keeping soils from being too dry, so are in a good spot relative to flood risk; 6 hour flash flood guidance is around 3.5 inches. It will require the higher end amounts to get flooding going, but the hilly terrain of the Ozark Foothills is more susceptible than flatter terrain by the bootheel. A slight risk ERO covers the Ozark Foothills tonight and tomorrow. The convective environment decreases on approach to the Quad State, keeping the D2 marginal risk limited to the westernmost counties of the CWA, as instability remains limited.
The second round of moisture has greater model agreement to it when it comes to amounts. The primary system rounds the base of the trough and lifts northeastward towards the Great Lakes, dragging a cold front across the Quad State. Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are expected, again with a limited convective environment. Lightning and heavy rain will be the main impacts, with around an inch of rain Tuesday through Tuesday night across the region. A broad marginal risk ERO is in place for D3 but flooding issues Tuesday are likely to be minor and brief, except in any areas that get several inches of rain with round one.
The front stalls out in Tennessee Wednesday-Thursday keeping slight chance to chance PoPs in portions of the Quad State with the best chance in the Southern Pennyrile. Temperatures will be much cooler compared to Sunday-Monday, but still remain a little above normal. Models form a cutoff low in the Eastern Rockies emerging into the Plains, but disagree fairly widely on positioning. This will be one to keep an eye on for Friday into next weekend.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat Nov 2 2024
VFR conditions are anticipated through Sunday as high and mid level cloud cover increases through the period. East winds around 5 knots tonight will pick up from the southeast around 10 knots with occasional gusts of 15 to 20 knots on Sunday.
There is a very small chance that a stray shower could impact the KCGI or KMVN terminals by late morning or early afternoon Sunday, but most of the activity should remain to the west.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
Airport Reports
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KPOF
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KPOF
Wind History Graph: POF
(wind in knots)GEOS Local Image of Southern Mississippi Valley
Edit Hide
Paducah, KY,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE