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FXUS63 KPAH 040716 AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 116 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

KEY MESSAGES
- Spotty chances of light rain next 24 to 36 hours.

- Mainly dry and seasonally cool first half of week, seasonally mild last half of week.

- A chance of a more widespread rain next weekend.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 115 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

A 540 DM H5 Low will track from MO across IL to the Mid Ohio Valley today, opening up/weakening as it does so. Its reflected surface low is modeled around 1008 mb and its track translates roughly south and east of its parent H5 low's track, but increases the distance of its drift from its energy by about 50 miles over the course of the day. There is marginal elevated instability present along this track, with Showalter Indices near zero. The dynamical aid of the upper energy may just clap off a rumble of thunder later this morning, similar to how it is now near STL. The new swody1 tries to account for this, painting a little general thunder risk mainly east of us for the daylight hours. Primarily, the low spreads light rain chances along its track, mainly across our north the first half of the day, where we remain warm enough for all rain. The HRRR-DESI paints categorically high chances for less than 1/4 inch of rainfall, with a marked drop off in chances for any greater amounts. Surface high pressure fills in with some drier columnar air in the wake of the low's passage, spreading west to east from late this morning thru the afternoon...effectively ending this first wave's pcpn chances.

The aforementioned surface high's ridge axis translates across the MS/TN Valleys thru tonight, as the upper flow goes increasingly high amplitude with its height falls/troffing.
This promotes another low's clipper-like drop into/across the area late tonight into early tmrw, but we're largely moisture starved so pops will be chance category and confined primarily to our far north and east along and nearest to the low's track.
Given the pattern evolution to northwesterlies, the air mass will be seasonally cool the first half of the week, with highs in the upper 40s-near 50 today and lows in the the mid-upper 30s tonight. After a slight modification nudges the mercury closer to seasonal norms between systems Tuesday, the 2nd low's passage draws in another shot of cooler air that repeats today's temps for Wednesday, if not a tad cooler.

After that, we begin an upper height recovery as the long wave trof departs the East Coast and broad ridging aloft occurs over the Central CONUS. Surface high pressure expands across the TN Valley and moves over the Southeast U.S. by week's end, giving us return flow southerlies that push our temps back thru the 50s and flirting with 60F for highs. This is just in time for the next evolution of long wave/split flow troffing that if all comes together, is looking a little more promising for a wider spreading rainfall across our area heading into next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 115 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

Satellite indicates high clouds spreading across the area in advance of an approaching low pressure system, with lower to mid level clouds expected to accompany its passage. It will also bring the potential for some light rain to mainly northern portions of the FA. A deterioration from VFR to MVFR cigs is expected as this occurs, where they'll hang with gradual improvement to low VFR this afternoon as the system departs to the east and then high pressure comes in behind it from the west by/for the planning phase of the forecast/this evening.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

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Paducah, KY,