Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Smithfield, VA

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
As of 820 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Dry tonight with lows mainly in the low-mid 60s.

Evening wx analysis shows occluded sfc low pressure beneath an upper low to the N of Lake Ontario, with secondary low pressure deepening across New England. A dry cold front extends SSW from the low over New England, and is pushing through the local area.
It remains warm and dry with temperatures still in the upper 70s to lower 80s, and dew pts ranging from the low-mid 50s N to the mid 60s SE. BKN high clouds are accompanying the front, with a partly cloudy to mostly clear sky expected overnight.
Have removed all mention of precipitation across the SE as the low levels have become too dry.

Otherwise, winds become W to WNW after midnight in the wake of the front, Lows generally in the low-mid 60s, with a few upper 50s possible in the NW.

SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 240 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Dry Sunday and Monday while still remaining warm.

- Increasing clouds on Tuesday ahead of our next system.

The low currently over the Great Lakes is progged to track into New England on Sunday, then into Atlantic Canada early next week.
Locally, the low-level flow becomes N on Sun/Mon before veering back to the E-SE by Tuesday as the next (strong) low pressure system takes shape in the Plains. With low pressure to our NE on Sun/Mon, dry and seasonable conditions are expected with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s (locally mid 80s S) on both days.
Overnight lows Sun and Mon night drop into the 50s inland and lower 60s closer to the coast. A few of the typically cooler spots could dip into the upper 40s Mon night as high pressure briefly settles overhead. Clouds will be on the increase Tuesday mid/upper level moisture overspreads the area in advance of the low in the Plains. A few showers are possible late across far SW portions of the FA.
Temps on Tuesday will be held to the 70s with the increasing cloud cover.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 240 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled weather returns Tuesday night through Thursday.

- Below average temperatures expected by late next week and likely last into next weekend.

Unsettled wx returns for the mid to late week period as that low pressure system is progged to track from the Plains to the east coast. While specifics are still uncertain at this time, it appears that the low tracks near or over the area on Wednesday before deepening offshore by Thursday. Showers and isolated tstms likely move in Tuesday night and persist through Wednesday. A drying trend occurs late this week as cooler air filters in from the NW and the associated sfc low tracks to NE of the area. With a slower trend in the 12z/17 models, showers will likely still be around on Thu, with mostly dry wx returning by Fri. While this doesn't look like a very wet system, decent rainfall totals are possible given the longer duration. GEFS/EPS probs are quite similar for greater than 0.5" and 1" of QPF during this period, with around 80-100% and 30-60% (highest N), respectively (EPS has slightly higher probs than the GEFS).

With the increased precipitation chances, temperatures trend cooler
and likely below seasonal norms
by Wednesday and especially Thursday/Friday. Below normal temperatures remain favored through at least the first half of the Memorial Day weekend, though some moderating in temps is possible by Sun/Mon, as suggested by the NBM and ensemble guidance.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 800 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the 00z/18 TAF period. WSW winds slowly diminish this evening, but a period of LLWS has been included at all main terminals with westerly flow of 40-45kt ~2000 ft over WSW sfc winds of 10-15kt. Mostly clear outside of SCT-BKN high clouds this evening/overnight. Winds shift to the W-NW overnight at ~10kt. Partly-mostly sunny and dry Sunday with winds becoming gusty once again, to 20-25kt from late morning through the aftn (SBY may see gusts of 25-30kt).
SCT aftn cumulus are expected.

Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions are expected Monday through most of Tuesday. Rain chances increase significantly late Tuesday, lasting through early Thursday, with periodic flight restrictions likely.

MARINE
As of 245 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages...

- Gusty SW winds will persist through this evening across the Chesapeake Bay, rivers, and Currituck Sound. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect.

- NW winds increase Sunday evening into early Monday, likely SCA thresholds across the Chesapeake Bay.

- Generally Sub-SCA conditions return Monday afternoon into Tuesday, before potentially becoming breezier by midweek.

A cold front is approaching the waters this afternoon with gusty SW winds across the bay/rivers (15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt).
Occasional 30 kt gusts have been noted near the land/water interface on the bay and rivers. SCAs are now in effect for all of the bay, rivers, and Currituck Sound until 7 PM. Winds diminish this evening/tonight as the front pushes through.
Behind the front, winds gradually turn W then NW on Sunday. Low pressure then deepens over the Canadian Maritimes Sunday night into Monday which should allow for NW winds to increase to 15-20 kt across the waters. Wind probs for sustained 18 kt winds have increased to 50-90% for a few hrs early Monday morning. SCAs will likely be needed for at least portions of the Chesapeake Bay with this northerly surge. Winds gradually turn to the east by Tuesday as low pressure develops to the west of the area and a frontal boundary stays south of the region. Becoming more unsettled by mid-week, with multiple chances for SCAs Wednesday and beyond.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630>632-634>638.