North Shore, VA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Shore, VA

February 20, 2024 5:38 PM EST (22:38 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:01 AM   Sunset 6:05 PM
Moonrise 2:21 PM   Moonset 5:03 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Shore, VA
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Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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FXUS61 KRNK 201639 AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 1139 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure over the eastern United States will keep the weather dry with temperatures near normal into Wednesday. A low pressure system will track from the Mid Mississippi Valley to the Mid Atlantic region Thursday and Friday, pushing a cold front through the area and bringing rain. Gusty winds and colder temperatures will follow the low pressure system for Friday night into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 112 AM EST Tuesday...

Key messages:

- Dry weather to continue

Pattern shows an upper wave moving across southern TN into Georgia and shifting to the southeast. Will only have some cirrus from it from time to time into this evening. Otherwise look for the high pressure at the surface to head east into Wednesday allowing for some return flow, but still airmass stays dry.

Models hint at some mid and high clouds approaching the mountains by dusk Wednesday.

Temperatures have been running cooler in some of our deeper valleys (Burkes Garden), so leaned toward cooler than MOS for those areas tonight, where upper teens to lower 20s possible., with mid to upper 20s elsewhere.

Highs Wednesday will be just above normal with heights building, and with sunshine looking at lower to mid 50s for most.

Forecast confidence is high.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 1040 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1. Trending milder through the period.
2. Cold front expected Thursday night along with generous coverage of showers.

The NCEP 20 Feb 00Z Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential Height contours depict the following for this portion of the forecast. Wednesday night into early Thursday, nearly zonal flow is expected to be over the area, with a trough of low pressure moving across the Upper Great Plains. A primary closed upper low is expected to be over Hudson Bay Thursday evening with a trailing weaker shortwave trough extending south across the Lower Ohio Valley. It will be this secondary feature that progresses eastward across our region Thursday night, and then be positioned closer to the Atlantic coast by Friday evening. By late Friday night this feature is expected to be well east of the coast, while flow across our region trends more zonal or northwest. At the surface, from Wednesday night into Thursday high pressure over our area will shift eastward. Thursday night through Friday night, a cold front will approach, then cross our region, reaching the Western Atlantic Friday evening.

The 20 Feb 00Z NAEFS mid-Atlantic view percentile display shows temperatures at 850mb trending slightly upward Wednesday night into Thursday night. By Friday into Friday night, values will be trending downward in the wake of a cold front. Precipitable Water (PW) values Wednesday night will will trend higher, reaching 0.75 inches by Thursday night.

The above scenario still points to a forecast similar to our ongoing forecast. Rain will be on the increase from west to east during the day Thursday, reaching perhaps the crest of the Blue Ridge by the late afternoon. Thursday night, the bulk of the precipitation is expected with the passage of a cold front.
Coverage will decrease rapidly behind the front on Friday, with lingering upslope rain/snow showers continuing into Friday night across parts of Southeast West Virginia. Temperatures will trend milder each day, with Friday averaging around 15 degrees above normal.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 1100 AM EST Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1. Cooler for the weekend but trending warmer early next week.
2. Mainly dry through Monday.
3. Rain returns on Tuesday associated with a warm front.

The NCEP 20 Feb 00Z Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential Height contours depict the following for this portion of the forecast. Through the weekend, flow aloft will be primarily zonal. A weak shortwave trough looks to cross the Great Lakes and move into New England with its southern tail potentially skirting our region. Monday into Tuesday, an upper level ridge builds over our region and then shifts being centered just east of the Atlantic coast.
Concurrently, an upper level trough is expected to deepen over the Rockies. This transition will place our area within southwest flow aloft by early next week. At the surface, on Saturday high pressure will pass across the Southeast US with an inverted ridge axis extending north across our region. On Sunday, this ridge will shift east a bit with the northern extent of its axis squelched a bit by a passing trough moving east through the Great Lakes. By Monday into Tuesday, low pressure will be deepening across the Central US. An associated warm front will lift north across our area on Tuesday in association with increasing southwest flow in advance of the low.

The 20 Feb 00Z NAEFS mid-Atlantic view percentile display shows temperatures at 850mb. Values will be coldest Saturday, around -6C to -4C, but then trend milder into early next week, reaching +4C to +6C by Monday afternoon, and +8 to +10C by Tuesday afternoon. The values on Tuesday afternoon will be mild enough to fall within the 90 to 97.5 percentile of the 30-year climatology of 850mb temperatures for this time of year. PW values will be at a minimum Saturday morning around 0.25 inches. Values will trend upward heading into early next week reaching 0.50 inches by Monday and 0.50 to 0.75 inches by Tuesday.

The above weather scenario will allow for primarily a dry forecast Saturday through Monday. The exception will potentially be portions of Southeast West Virginia. Residual upslope behind Thursday night's cold front may still linger into early Saturday. Additionally, the tail of the shortwave trough passing through the Great Lakes may provide enough influence for some isolated showers across parts of Southeast West Virginia on Sunday into Monday.

By late Monday night into Tuesday, expect more coverage of rain across the area, especially northwestern sections in association with the advancing warm front.

Temperatures over the weekend will be cooler than those expected on Friday, but still average about five degrees above normal. By Monday into Tuesday, values will trend milder again, reaching close to fifteen above normal by Tuesday.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 1130 AM EST Tuesday...

VFR conditions are expected through 18z.

High pressure at the surface will gradually move east. Wind speeds will remain light, but the prevailing direction will become southeast to south this afternoon at less than 10 knots.

Above average confidence for ceiling, wind, and visibility.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions persist through Wednesday night as high pressure remains in control.

The next chance of any sub-VFR conditions is expected by Thursday night through Friday with rain chances increasing. A cold front will cross the area on Friday leading in colder temperatures and gusty wind for Friday night and Saturday. MVFR mountain rain and snow showers are possible. Should see VFR return east of the mountains by Saturday afternoon and in the mountains Saturday night.

FIRE WEATHER
As of 1133 AM EST Tuesday...

Pattern favors dry weather into Wednesday with light winds and mainly terrain drive winds. RH values will start to creep up by Thursday as the wind flow turns southwest ahead of a front.
Wetting rain is likely by Thursday night into Friday.



RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KROA27 sm44 minESE 0510 smClear52°F25°F35%30.32
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Wind History from ROA
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Blacksburg, VA,



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