Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Shore, VA
February 19, 2025 3:54 AM EST (08:54 UTC) Change Location
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Area Discussion for Blacksburg, VA
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FXUS61 KRNK 190849 AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 349 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
Snow will continue to expand across the region today, as the surface low makes its way up the Atlantic coastline. Blustery conditions and unseasonably cold air follow in behind the storm system for Friday through the weekend. Dry high pressure and moderating temperatures are expected for the start of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 300 AM EST Wednesday...
Key Messages:
1) No Changes were made to the Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory
2) Snow will expand east throughout the morning hours today.
3) Snow squall potential early Thursday morning
Snow has already started to fall across portions of SE West Virginia this morning, with coverage expected to expand east throughout the remainder of the morning. CAM guidance is suggesting that a brief lull in snowfall may develop east of the Blue Ridge Thursday evening and overnight as the Gulf surface low pushes east off of the Carolinas coastline. The Gulf low that is currently south of the eastern Louisiana coastline is expected to continue to track east, then northeast through North Florida and up the Georgia and South Carolina coastline throughout the day today. Widespread upper level divergence over the area will be the primary driver for snowfall across the region today as moisture is drawn from the surface low in the Gulf. As the surface low makes its transition up the Atlantic coastline, some model guidance has hinted at drying through the mid levels, which has dropped snowfall totals slightly across the region. This may also cause a brief lull in snowfall through the overnight hours tonight. As the surface low continues east off the North Carolina and Virginia coastlines, a more potent upper level trough is expected to enter the Ohio valley by Wednesday night. This trough looks to bring a strong arctic airmass into the region early Thursday morning, with 850mb temperatures dropping to -15 to -20 degrees Celsius. This arctic front combined with 850 temperatures this cold signal the potential for snow squalls early Thursday morning, which may drop up to an additional inch of snow. This may effect the Thursday morning commute as these squalls progress eastward through the region. Along with this snow squall potential, upslope snow showers look to continue for westward facing slopes, and areas west of the Blue Ridge through Thursday night.
Temperatures today will remain cold in the upper 20s to low 30s across the region, with lows falling into the mid to upper teens west of the Blue Ridge, and upper teens to low 20s east of the Blue Ridge.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 300 AM EST Wednesday...
Key Messages:
1) Confidence is high for below normal temperatures through Thursday night with wind chills below zero along the higher elevations.
2) Snow should taper by late Thursday in the mountains, and drier weather will take place throughout Friday and Saturday.
A 524-dam upper level low at 500 mb will cross Pennsylvania on Thursday to bring below normal temperatures. The pressure gradient between low pressure deepening off the New England coast and high pressure moving eastward from the Plains should yield northwest winds gusting up to 40 mph along the Appalachian Mountains. The highest wind gusts could occur by sunset on Thursday evening.
Upslope snow showers will continue through Thursday amidst this northwest flow, but these snow showers should taper by Thursday night as drier air arrives. The combination of temperatures falling into the teens with the gusty winds will send wind chill values below zero across the higher terrain, which is driving the odds higher for consideration of a Cold Weather Advisory.
High pressure should build across the Mid Atlantic on Friday to allow the winds to subside by Friday night. Most locations will see low temperatures in the teens during Friday night into Saturday morning, but there may be a few upper single digits possible for Burkes Garden and parts of Greenbrier County. Sunshine combined with the flow turning towards the southwest on Saturday should start a warming trend with most locations reaching the 40s, while the higher elevations may get above freezing depending on any lingering snow cover. Clouds will increase by Wednesday afternoon as upper level shortwave energy passes overhead, but these clouds should decrease later on Wednesday night.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 300 AM EST Wednesday...
Key Messages:
1) Confidence is moderate for a chance of rain or snow showers west of the Blue Ridge during late Monday into Tuesday.
2) Temperatures should continue to moderate into the new week.
High pressure will keep conditions dry for the latter half of the weekend. The flow aloft should become more zonal compared to last week to keep temperatures moderating into early next week. By Monday, a low pressure system will cross the Great Lakes, and some moisture may spread southward towards the Appalachian Mountains to introduce a chance of rain showers by late Monday into Tuesday. If temperatures are cold enough on Monday night, some of the rain may switch to snow across the higher terrain west of the Blue Ridge. The westerly flow will keep areas east of the Blue Ridge in a drier downsloping regime. As this low pressure system exits by late Tuesday, drier air should return.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 1230 PM EST Tuesday...
VFR conditions look to continue for an additional few couple of hours for LWB, BLF, and BCB, but snow looks to begin in southeast West Virginia before sunrise and expand into the Virgnias and North Carolina piedmont by 13-15z. CIGs and VSBYs are expected to lower to MVFR restrictions at KLWB/KBLF around 08Z this morning, KBCB/KROA around 12Z, KLYH around 13Z and KDAN around 16z. Some IFR/LIFR vsbys with moderate to heavy snow possible, especially BLF/DAN. Wind speeds look to remain out of the north/northeast at around 5-10 knots.
Confidence remains above average in precipitation type and location, with average confidence for CIGs , VSBYs, wind, and timing of the snow.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
Winter weather and sub-VFR conditions continue over the Mid Atlantic through Thursday morning, with a brief snow squall potential overnight Wednesday into early Thursday morning with the passage of a secondary upper level trough. Confidence in this potential is average currently.
Upslope MVFR clouds dissipate in the mountains on Friday. Then dry weather and VFR flight conditions are expected through Sunday. Gusty winds are expected Thursday through Friday morning.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for VAZ009>020.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for VAZ022>024- 032>034.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Thursday for VAZ035- 043>047-058-059.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for VAZ007.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for NCZ001-002- 018.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for NCZ003-019- 020.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Thursday for NCZ004>006.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for WVZ044-507.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for WVZ042-043-508.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 349 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
Snow will continue to expand across the region today, as the surface low makes its way up the Atlantic coastline. Blustery conditions and unseasonably cold air follow in behind the storm system for Friday through the weekend. Dry high pressure and moderating temperatures are expected for the start of next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 300 AM EST Wednesday...
Key Messages:
1) No Changes were made to the Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory
2) Snow will expand east throughout the morning hours today.
3) Snow squall potential early Thursday morning
Snow has already started to fall across portions of SE West Virginia this morning, with coverage expected to expand east throughout the remainder of the morning. CAM guidance is suggesting that a brief lull in snowfall may develop east of the Blue Ridge Thursday evening and overnight as the Gulf surface low pushes east off of the Carolinas coastline. The Gulf low that is currently south of the eastern Louisiana coastline is expected to continue to track east, then northeast through North Florida and up the Georgia and South Carolina coastline throughout the day today. Widespread upper level divergence over the area will be the primary driver for snowfall across the region today as moisture is drawn from the surface low in the Gulf. As the surface low makes its transition up the Atlantic coastline, some model guidance has hinted at drying through the mid levels, which has dropped snowfall totals slightly across the region. This may also cause a brief lull in snowfall through the overnight hours tonight. As the surface low continues east off the North Carolina and Virginia coastlines, a more potent upper level trough is expected to enter the Ohio valley by Wednesday night. This trough looks to bring a strong arctic airmass into the region early Thursday morning, with 850mb temperatures dropping to -15 to -20 degrees Celsius. This arctic front combined with 850 temperatures this cold signal the potential for snow squalls early Thursday morning, which may drop up to an additional inch of snow. This may effect the Thursday morning commute as these squalls progress eastward through the region. Along with this snow squall potential, upslope snow showers look to continue for westward facing slopes, and areas west of the Blue Ridge through Thursday night.
Temperatures today will remain cold in the upper 20s to low 30s across the region, with lows falling into the mid to upper teens west of the Blue Ridge, and upper teens to low 20s east of the Blue Ridge.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 300 AM EST Wednesday...
Key Messages:
1) Confidence is high for below normal temperatures through Thursday night with wind chills below zero along the higher elevations.
2) Snow should taper by late Thursday in the mountains, and drier weather will take place throughout Friday and Saturday.
A 524-dam upper level low at 500 mb will cross Pennsylvania on Thursday to bring below normal temperatures. The pressure gradient between low pressure deepening off the New England coast and high pressure moving eastward from the Plains should yield northwest winds gusting up to 40 mph along the Appalachian Mountains. The highest wind gusts could occur by sunset on Thursday evening.
Upslope snow showers will continue through Thursday amidst this northwest flow, but these snow showers should taper by Thursday night as drier air arrives. The combination of temperatures falling into the teens with the gusty winds will send wind chill values below zero across the higher terrain, which is driving the odds higher for consideration of a Cold Weather Advisory.
High pressure should build across the Mid Atlantic on Friday to allow the winds to subside by Friday night. Most locations will see low temperatures in the teens during Friday night into Saturday morning, but there may be a few upper single digits possible for Burkes Garden and parts of Greenbrier County. Sunshine combined with the flow turning towards the southwest on Saturday should start a warming trend with most locations reaching the 40s, while the higher elevations may get above freezing depending on any lingering snow cover. Clouds will increase by Wednesday afternoon as upper level shortwave energy passes overhead, but these clouds should decrease later on Wednesday night.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 300 AM EST Wednesday...
Key Messages:
1) Confidence is moderate for a chance of rain or snow showers west of the Blue Ridge during late Monday into Tuesday.
2) Temperatures should continue to moderate into the new week.
High pressure will keep conditions dry for the latter half of the weekend. The flow aloft should become more zonal compared to last week to keep temperatures moderating into early next week. By Monday, a low pressure system will cross the Great Lakes, and some moisture may spread southward towards the Appalachian Mountains to introduce a chance of rain showers by late Monday into Tuesday. If temperatures are cold enough on Monday night, some of the rain may switch to snow across the higher terrain west of the Blue Ridge. The westerly flow will keep areas east of the Blue Ridge in a drier downsloping regime. As this low pressure system exits by late Tuesday, drier air should return.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 1230 PM EST Tuesday...
VFR conditions look to continue for an additional few couple of hours for LWB, BLF, and BCB, but snow looks to begin in southeast West Virginia before sunrise and expand into the Virgnias and North Carolina piedmont by 13-15z. CIGs and VSBYs are expected to lower to MVFR restrictions at KLWB/KBLF around 08Z this morning, KBCB/KROA around 12Z, KLYH around 13Z and KDAN around 16z. Some IFR/LIFR vsbys with moderate to heavy snow possible, especially BLF/DAN. Wind speeds look to remain out of the north/northeast at around 5-10 knots.
Confidence remains above average in precipitation type and location, with average confidence for CIGs , VSBYs, wind, and timing of the snow.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK
Winter weather and sub-VFR conditions continue over the Mid Atlantic through Thursday morning, with a brief snow squall potential overnight Wednesday into early Thursday morning with the passage of a secondary upper level trough. Confidence in this potential is average currently.
Upslope MVFR clouds dissipate in the mountains on Friday. Then dry weather and VFR flight conditions are expected through Sunday. Gusty winds are expected Thursday through Friday morning.
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for VAZ009>020.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for VAZ022>024- 032>034.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Thursday for VAZ035- 043>047-058-059.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for VAZ007.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for NCZ001-002- 018.
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for NCZ003-019- 020.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Thursday for NCZ004>006.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for WVZ044-507.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for WVZ042-043-508.
Airport Reports
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KROA
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KROA
Wind History Graph: ROA
(wind in knots)GEOS Local Image of east us
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Blacksburg, VA,

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