Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Shore, VA

KEY MESSAGES
1. A strong upper level ridge will bring abnormal warmth for the next few days with record heat possible.

2. A cool down arrives by early next week as a cold front moves through the region.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A strong upper level ridge will bring abnormal warmth for the next few days with record heat possible.

Slight increase in instability and minor shortwave passing across the mid-Atlantic may bring a few showers to southeast WV this afternoon but coverage looks isolated with better coverage further north/west. A rumble of thunder also possible.

Otherwise, still looking at strong upper ridge over the southeast into Thursday, though models showing a decent shortwave trough arriving by Thursday night into Friday which could bring at least some showers/few storms to the mountains with less coverage east.

Ridge rebuilds behind this system before the pattern changes early next week. So overall expecting above normal temperatures, though Friday could be cooler but still above normal compared to the rest of the week.

See climate and fire weather sections below for details on records and fire danger.

Key Message 2: A cool down arrives by early next week as a cold front moves through the region.

Guidance is beginning to show hints of a cool down by late Sunday and into Monday next week as a strong cold front pushes through the region. If this occurs, this will bring an end to the record breaking heat that is expected to occur this week.
Temperatures will fall back closer to April normals. Some rain will be possible with the frontal passage, but amounts appear to be light and unlikely to aid in helping with the current drought.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions through the TAF period. Wind will be WSW through the period, a few gusts 15-20kts possible this afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Mainly dry with VFR conditions into Saturday. There is a front/upper disturbance arriving Thu night-Friday that may bring showers and sub-VFR to the mountains. The pattern changes Sunday with a stronger front and better chance of showers and potential for sub-VFR cigs/vbsy. Winds behind this system will be gusty Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER
Unusually warm and dry conditions will take place with record heat possible through Thursday. Rainfall chances appear low and remain confined to the mountains, which will only prolong the ongoing drought. Relative humidities will fall towards 20 to 30 percent for the next few afternoons, especially east of the Blue Ridge. Some southern-facing slopes may have relative humidities drop below 20 percent with afternoon sunshine and gusty winds due to an unstable atmosphere from the increasing heat.

These aforementioned conditions will escalate fire danger across the entire region. The anomalous heat and low humidity combined with daytime gusts will only make fire containment increasingly difficult throughout the rest of this week. The next notable chance for any widespread wetting rainfall may not come until Sunday when a cold front arrives to bring some relief.

CLIMATE
The following record high maximums and record high minimums, or warmest lows, are in jeopardy due to the abnormal warmth over the next three days:

Today:

Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Roanoke 91 in 1945 67 in 1922 Lynchburg 91 in 1941 63 in 2014 Danville 91 in 1945 75 in 1922 Bluefield 83 in 1930 64 in 1977 Blacksburg 82 in 1941 60 in 1941

Wednesday:

Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Roanoke 89 in 1936 67 in 2024 Lynchburg 89 in 1941 65 in 1896 Danville 91 in 2006 68 in 1922 Bluefield 89 in 1922 60 in 2006 Blacksburg 83 in 1941 57 in 1954

Thursday:

Station Hi Max T Hi Min T Roanoke 90 in 2002 61 in 2017 Lynchburg 91 in 2002 65 in 1912 Danville 92 in 2002 64 in 1916 Bluefield 81 in 2012 66 in 2006 Blacksburg 82 in 1941 61 in 1941

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.