Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Kanab, UT

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z/6AM Monday)...An anomalously deep upper trough for the latter portion of June encompasses much of the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies and northern Great Basin early this morning. A dry cold front associated with this trough pushed through northern Utah overnight, and currently stretches from roughly Delta to Evanston. To the north of this boundary, much cooler air has spread across northern Utah/southwest Wyoming, and will remain in place through the day, resulting in a cooling trend of 10-15 degrees. To the south of the boundary, another day of dry and windy conditions is on tap across central and southern Utah.

The cold front will stall early this morning before mixing north a bit this afternoon. To the south of this front strong southwesterly flow > 40 KTS at 700mb will mix to the surface, resulting in another afternoon of wind gusts in the 40-55 mph range, with a few locally favored spots potentially touching 60 mph across southwest Utah. In addition to widespread Red Flag Warnings (see Fire Weather Discussion for Fire Wx Details), have maintained going Wind Advisory for lower elevations of central and southern Utah through this evening.

A shortwave trough currently making landfall along the northern California coast will rotate inland, and eject across the northern Great Basin/Snake River Plain late tonight through early Sunday morning. This wave will push a re-enforcing shot of cold air into northern Utah, before allowing the stalled frontal boundary to accelerate southward through central and southern Utah tonight. A periods of enhanced northwesterly winds will accompany this secondary surge of cold air through northern Utah this evening, then west central and southwest Utah overnight, and could see winds again reach advisory or even low end warning criteria with this surge, mainly across northwest and west central Utah...something to monitor through the day today.

As the upper wave lifts through northern Utah overnight into early Sunday morning, dynamics look favorable for a band of showers with this region of forcing. Have made adjustments to increase PoPs along the Wasatch Front and adjacent terrain overnight. With colder air quickly advecting into the area, snow levels will fall to near 7000-7500 feet. Additionally, experimental Lake Effect Guidance gives a 50-60% chance overnight which is reasonable considering 700mb temps near -4C and lake surface temps near 24C.
Rain/snow amounts will be light, but it's been nearly a month since measurable precip has been recorded at KSLC.

With this colder air spreading into the region, temperatures will trend another 10F cooler Sunday, and struggle to reach the 70F mark along the Wasatch Front (normal for KSLC is 87). While not as pronounced, max temps will trend 5-7F cooler Sunday as this more stable airmass settles into the region.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z/6AM Monday)...A cooler than normal airmass will lead to chilly Monday morning lows as temperatures dip down into the 40s across most valley locations with near freezing temperatures for areas of the Wasatch Back, Bear River Valley, and SW Wyoming. A longwave trough across the west is responsible for the cooler airmass, and a trailing wave will move through on Tuesday before ejecting to the northeast. This will result in continued cooler than normal temperatures on Monday and Tuesday with a small chance of some convection on Tuesday as better forcing interacts with a bit of moisture. Only 22% of ensemble members have QPF associated with this passing wave, whereas the remaining 78% of members keep things a bit too dry to develop any convection, aside from some rogue high elevation convection.

Towards the middle to end of next week the jet stream pushes to the north with some troughs moving by to the north. This will prevent any highly amplified ridging from becoming established across the west, but conditions will remain dry with a gradual warming trend. Temperatures by the end of the week climb a few degrees back above normal, but winds will remain weaker compared to the past couple of days due to the lack of any substantial pressure gradient.

AVIATION
KSLC...VFR conditions will prevail at the KSLC terminal through the period. Dry and clear skies will continue with mid level clouds moving in from the west late in the afternoon/evening. Winds will stay northerly throughout the day, becoming gusty in the afternoon and evening.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING
A dry cold front draped across the middle of the airspace from southwest to northeast will keep winds lighter out of the north for the northern half of the area and gusty out of the southwest across the southern half. VFR conditions will persist for the entire airspace, aside from KBCE where wildfire smoke could lower categories briefly.

FIRE WEATHER
Strong southwesterly flow combined with a very dry airmass will bring another day of critical fire weather conditions across most of central, southern and eastern Utah. Meanwhile, a dry cold front which crossed the area last evening will bring cooler and more stable conditions across northern Utah today.

To the south of this front, overnight RH recovery has been marginal to poor across central and southern Utah, and as the inversion lifts by mid morning RH values will quickly fall below 20 percent by late morning, and below 15 percent by early afternoon.
Strengthening southwesterly winds will bring gusts of 40 to 50 mph this afternoon and evening. This front will push south again this evening, crossing most of central and southern Utah overnight.
As a result, very low RH and strong southwest winds will likely persist through much of the evening. Once the front passes overnight, winds will shift to the north to northwest, with gusts in excess of 40 mph possible within an hour or two of frontal passage. A cooler airmass will settle across the region Sunday, however RH will remain very low, and with afternoon wind gusts from the west to northwest approaching 25 mph at times, fire weather conditions will remain elevated to near critical across southern and eastern Utah. Further north, a weak weather system will bring a chance of showers to northern Utah late tonight into early Sunday morning.

SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UT...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for UTZ482>484-489- 492>498.

Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this evening for UTZ114>116-118>123-126>131.

WY...None.