Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shaver Lake, CA

KEY MESSAGES

1. A cooling trend will set up in the late weekend to early next week with temperatures near average for the time of year.
The is a 10 to 40 percent chance for morning low temperatures below freezing Tuesday morning in the rural areas of the San Joaquin Valley.

2. Nighttime and morning fog, locally dense in the early morning, remains possible each day through next week in the San Joaquin Valley.

3. Next Saturday a system is anticipated to impact the region with a 35 to 75 percent probability of an inch or more of snow for the Sierra Nevada and a 45 to 75 percent probability of measurable rainfall for the San Joaquin Valley.

DISCUSSION
The rex block continues to stay over Central California, causing fog to build up in the overnight hours into the morning for the San Joaquin Valley. This pattern is expected to hold through the weekend and into Monday. On Tuesday, a trough is expected to dive down from Canada, breaking up the rex block and bringing strong winds to the southern portion of the Mojave Desert Slopes Tuesday morning. The southern portion San Joaquin Valley, near Bakersfield, has a 10 to 40 percent chance for freezing temperatures in the rural area of the valley on Tuesday.

After that trough passes through California, a ridge is expected to build back in over the southwest of the CONUS. This will lead to a slight increase in temperatures, though fog may continue to form through Thursday as the inversion remains in place over the Valley.

The ridge is expected to be pushed to the east by a weak trough Thursday evening, with a stronger trough coming in right behind it on Saturday. This system looks to be more promising for precipitation, with a 35 to 75 percent probability of an inch or more of snow for the Sierra Nevada and a 45 to 75 percent probability of measurable rainfall for the San Joaquin Valley.

Looking into the long term forecast, current ensemble models indicate another trough behind the Saturday system may pass through Central California on Tuesday, December 17th. This trough is also showing the possibility of measureable precipitation for the region, though amounts are currently speculative.


AVIATION
IFR conditions continue to be present for all TAF sites.
Conditions are expected to remain in IFR as haze continues to hold over much of the San Joaquin Valley through the daylight hours. IFR/LIFR conditions are expected to return by 05Z at the earliest and 08Z at the latest and continue through at least 20Z tomorrow.

High Sierra/Foothills/Kern County Desert: VFR few high clouds for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ISSUED: 12/07/2024 14:46 EXPIRES: 12/08/2024 23:59 On Sunday December 8 2024, Unhealthy in Fresno and Kern Counties.
Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties. Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning For All in Fresno, Kern, and Madera Counties. No Burning Unless Registered in Kings, Merced, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low
medium
and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.