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PZZ535 Monterey Bay- 213 Am Pdt Sat Sep 23 2023
Today..W winds around 5 knots...increasing to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. W swell around 2 ft at 10 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 knots. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell around 2 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 knots. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. W swell around 2 ft at 10 seconds and sw around 2 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy fog.
Sun night..SW winds around 5 knots. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. W swell around 2 ft at 9 seconds and sw around 2 ft at 14 seconds. Patchy fog.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 knots. Wind waves around 2 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 11 seconds and sw around 2 ft at 13 seconds. Patchy fog.
Mon night..SE winds around 5 knots. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 13 seconds. Patchy fog.
Tue..NW winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 5 to 7 ft. Patchy fog.
Wed..NW winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft.
locally lower winds and seas across sheltered portions of the bay.

PZZ500 213 Am Pdt Sat Sep 23 2023
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries...
expect light northwest winds through the day and into Sunday. An approaching cold front will cause the winds to shift and strengthen into a fresh southerly breeze for late Sunday and into Monday. Winds will be strongest in the nw waters, with rough seas expected to build from the north and spread south into the work weak, creating hazardous conditions for small crafts.

FXUS66 KMTR 231205 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 505 AM PDT Sat Sep 23 2023

New AVIATION

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 357 AM PDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Cool weather lasts through the weekend as onshore flow continues.
Potent low pressure system moves into the region this weekend, clearing out smoke and bringing in a cold front that will provide rain chances early next week.

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 357 AM PDT Sat Sep 23 2023

The flow of higher clouds from the south has redirected and pushed to the East as the upper level pattern begins to change over the area. Onshore flow will has allowed for plenty of lower stratus to move inland and the cool marine air to filter into several areas.
Cloud cover will last through most of the morning, but a fair amount of clearing is expected around noon. Expect mostly sunny skies for all but the coast and around average temperatures for Saturday afternoon leading into another cloudy and cool night.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 357 AM PDT Sat Sep 23 2023

The main focus of the overnight forecast package was the oncoming cold front which is still expected to arrive early Monday and offer lingering rain chances into early Tuesday. Confidence is growing on the track and rain chances associated with the front as the nearer- term higher resolution models are now in range of this front's passage. Some adjustments have been made to the start time and end time of the rain chances, but otherwise the forecast remains pretty similar from the last forecast update:

Rainfall adding up to 0.25-0.5" for far northern Napa/Sonoma counties, 0.1-0.25" for the rest of the North Bay, and <0.1 for the rest of the SF Bay Area. Generally lesser amounts as you go inland and south. The probabilities for locations to see at least 0.1" are slight to moderate...20-40% for the SF Bay Area, and 40-75% for the North Bay, higher probabilities as you go northward.

Drizzly, cloudy, and cool conditions look to linger behind the front, making things feel a lot like Autumn for the first part of the work week.

The mid week offers fair agreement from the longer term models and ensemble members for light, but steady onshore flow behind the front keeping temperatures close to average.

Into the next weekend, the longer term models split on where to put the next trough pattern causing quite the difference in the long term portion of the forecast. The ECMWF places the trough axis right over the Bay Area, offering a few chances for rain. The GFS, however, places it much farther east, which would result in a dry and windy pattern for the Bay Area. This will be something the forecasting team will keep and eye on through the next week, but we know much can still change before that trough comes.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 504 AM PDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Currently MVFR conditions being reported across much of the region as a result of stratus, with ceilings generally around 1500 feet.
Towards 17/18Z, VFR conditions return once again as stratus mixes out with diurnal heating, and lasts through the mid morning hours of Sunday for most terminals with the exception of Monterey Bay, who is expected to see MVFR conditions return on the early side towards 03Z Sunday. Expect winds to increase to become breezy and onshore into the mid afternoon hours today, then weakening into the late evening to become light for most terminals.

Vicinity of SFO... MVFR lasts until the late morning hours with clearing to VFR expected around 17/18Z and lasting through the late evening. Winds increase into the afternoon to around 16 knots out of the W, then diminish slowly into the nighttime hours of Saturday into Sunday. Stratus looks to return towards the mid morning hours of Sunday near 12/14Z.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR CIGS expected to continue through the late morning, then clearing to VFR and lasting through the late afternoon. Stratus makes and early return in the first part of the evening, bringing MVFR ceilings. These ceilings last through the end of the TAF period with some hints at IFR development into the late night of Saturday, though confidence in this development is low at this time. Looking at winds, a slow increase into the afternoon today to become westerly and breezy around 10-12 knots is forecast, then weakening to become light into the mid evening hours and lasting through the remainder of the TAF period.

MARINE
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 357 AM PDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Expect light northwest winds through the day and into Sunday. An approaching cold front will cause the winds to shift and strengthen into a fresh southerly breeze for late sunday and into Monday. Winds will be strongest in the NW waters, with rough seas expected to build from the North and spread south into the work weak, creating hazardous conditions for small crafts.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Sunday to 3 PM PDT Monday for PZZ570.

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Elkhorn Slough railroad bridge
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Sat -- 06:55 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:58 AM PDT     3.89 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:41 AM PDT     3.43 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:39 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:45 PM PDT     5.22 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:02 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Elkhorn Slough railroad bridge, California, Tide feet

Kirby Park
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Sat -- 06:55 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:50 AM PDT     3.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 11:41 AM PDT     3.51 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:39 PM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:38 PM PDT     5.28 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:02 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Kirby Park, Elkhorn Slough, California, Tide feet

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