Sunday, January26, 2020
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L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bethel Manor, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 5:24PM Sunday January 26, 2020 4:05 PM EST (21:05 UTC) Moonrise 8:31AMMoonset 7:09PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 326 Pm Est Sun Jan 26 2020
Through 7 pm..W winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..W winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed night..N winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu night..NE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 326 Pm Est Sun Jan 26 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure builds in from the west this afternoon. A weak disturbance tracks across the area on Monday. High pressure returns for the middle of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bethel Manor, VA
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location: 37.17, -76.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 262004 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 304 PM EST Sun Jan 26 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure dissipates over the region tonight. A weak disturbance tracks across North Carolina Monday before high pressure builds in again for mid week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/. As of 200 PM EST Sunday .

BKN clouds remain over N-E portions this afternoon . otw and seasonable day and partly/mostly sunny. Trough aloft remains INVOF the FA (clipping N-E portions) through tonight . will keep VRB clouds/partly cloudy conditions those areas. Elsewhere . mainly SKC this evening before clouds begin to arrive from the WSW ahead of the next weak system approaching from TN Valley. Lows from around 30F far N and NW to the l-m30s elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 200 PM EST Sunday .

In zonal flow aloft . a weak mid/upper level system will track across NC Mon resulting in increasing clouds (mainly srn VA-NE NC) and a 20-30% PoP (-RA) - mainly late morning through the afternoon Model QPF remains light. on the order of just a few hundredths of an inch Otw. partly sunny N. Highs mainly from the u40s-l50s.

Rain chcs end Mon evening as the system exits the coast. Drier and slightly cooler wx follows Mon night-Tue as sfc hi pres builds in from the Midwest. Low Mon night in the u20s WNW to m30s along coastal SE VA-NE NC. Highs Tue ranging from the m40s N and NE to around 50F over NE NC.

The next weak system will track across the gulf states Tue night-Wed (a bit S of the 1st one Mon). Will keep PoPs BLO 10% and bring increasing clouds (by late Wed). Lows Tue night in the u20s-around 30F inland to the l-m30s in far SE VA-NE NC.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 300 PM EST Sunday .

A weak shortwave moves well south of the region late Wednesday night/early Thursday and therefore only the far SW counties of the CWA have a chance at a few isolated rain showers late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. Otherwise, high pressure will be dominant Wednesday night through Friday night. The timeframe from late Friday night through Sunday morning appears to be the most active with a low pressure likely developing off of the SE coast. However, uncertainty remains high in regards to the track of the low. The EURO suppresses the system and keeps it well offshore with no precip for our CWA while the GFS and CMC bring the low up the NE coast. Have therefore kept PoPs at 30-35% to account for model uncertainty. That being said, rain would be the most probable precipitation type given no substantial cold air in place during this timeframe even if the low does track closer to the coast. High pressure once again moves in Sunday night.

Temperatures will be near seasonal through the period. Lows Wednesday-Thursday nights will range from the mid-upper 20s in the NW to the low-mid 30s in the SE. Lows on Friday-Sunday nights will be slightly warmer with low 30s in the NW and upper 30s to around 40F in the SE. Highs will be in the 40s on Thursday and will range from the mid-upper 40s in the NW to lower 50s in the SE on Friday- Saturday. Sunday looks to be the warmest day with highs around 50F in the NW and in the mid-50s in the SE.

AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 1230 PM EST Sunday .

Clouds are persisting over the VA peninsula and the Ern Shore with clear skies elsewhere. The cloud deck does appear to be retreating temporarily and should move SE of SBY around 19z before another cloud deck moves in due to a weak surface trough moving through early this evening (around 23z). However, even underneath the cloud deck ceilings are VFR at around 5500 ft at SBY so no flight restrictions are expected. Cloud cover will increase Monday morning in SE terminals (ECG/ORF/PHF) due to a shortwave moving south of the region. However, any precipitation should hold off until after 18z Monday with only a slight chance of a few light, isolated showers at PHF possible between 12-18z. However, even this chance is too low to reflect in the TAF at this time. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to continue at all terminals through the 18z TAF period. Winds are currently W/WNW primarily at 5-10 kt with a few stronger gusts at RIC to 10-15 kt and will become light and variable at <5 kt overnight before increasing to 5-10 kt by Monday morning at all terminals.

A weak shortwave moves through during the day Monday with a slight chance of a few showers and flight restrictions due to ceilings mainly for ORF/ECG. High pressure moves in Tuesday through Thursday with VFR conditions expected.

MARINE. As of 300 PM EST Sunday .

Quiet afternoon across the marine area as light 5-10 kt westerly flow at the surface persists. Waves are running 1-2 ft in the bay and seas offshore range from 2-4 ft.

Tranquil conditions continue this evening and into the overnight as a shortwave trough dives quickly south and southeast through the western rim of the mean upper trough over the eastern CONUS. This shortwave and the associated surface reflection will cross the southern half of the area Monday afternoon into Monday night with winds becoming N and NW behind the mostly-dry cold front. Guidance continues to show a relatively short period of enhanced winds (15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots) after 06Z Tuesday, lasting into late Tuesday morning before the gradient begins to relax as high pressure builds in from the west. Modest cold advection/pressure rises behind the front argue for a period of SCAs in the Ches bay but will hold off on any headlines since the threat is 3 periods away and slight timing differences remain among the various models. Confidence in reaching SCA thresholds for the coastal waters is relatively low given the marginal wind speeds and NW/offshore flow but seas could build to 4-5 ft on Tuesday, especially S and out near 20 nmi.

North and northwest flow continues for the late week period with a few weak surges of cooler air/enhanced wind noted but these periods are expected to result in winds below SCA thresholds. Model guidance diverges significantly late in the week.

CLIMATE. Due to a tipping bucket error at SBY ASOS yesterday, precipitation for Sat 1/25 was substituted with data from the RAWS site at Powellville (1.03").

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . CMF/ERI NEAR TERM . ALB SHORT TERM . ALB/CMF LONG TERM . RMM AVIATION . RMM MARINE . RHR CLIMATE .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 6 mi48 min S 8 G 8.9 45°F 1012.2 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 6 mi54 min NE 1.9 G 5.1 48°F 45°F1011.2 hPa
44072 7 mi36 min SW 3.9 G 5.8 45°F
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 14 mi54 min NW 5.1 G 6 48°F 1012 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 14 mi54 min SW 1.9 G 1.9 52°F 1011.3 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 16 mi54 min 45°F1011.6 hPa
44087 17 mi36 min 45°F1 ft
CHBV2 19 mi54 min NE 1.9 G 1.9 46°F 1010.7 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 20 mi48 min WNW 2.9 G 5.1 52°F 1011.5 hPa
44064 20 mi36 min NE 1.9 G 3.9 40°F 1011.6 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 22 mi54 min W 1 G 1 44°F
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 24 mi96 min N 1 48°F 1013 hPa33°F
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 27 mi48 min N 2.9 G 2.9 46°F 1012 hPa
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 28 mi54 min WNW 5.1 G 8 51°F 49°F1011.4 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 28 mi42 min SSE 5.8 G 5.8 43°F1015.3 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 33 mi48 min S 4.1 G 5.1 1012.4 hPa
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 40 mi36 min 47°F3 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 48 mi48 min SW 6 G 9.9 48°F 47°F1011.2 hPa

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA6 mi72 minW 1010.00 miA Few Clouds53°F28°F40%1011.7 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA6 mi70 minE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy48°F35°F62%1012.5 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA12 mi70 minWNW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy52°F28°F41%1011.5 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA17 mi67 minNW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy52°F32°F47%1012.3 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA17 mi71 minW 7 G 1610.00 miMostly Cloudy52°F30°F44%1011.8 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA21 mi75 minW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy53°F30°F43%1011.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLFI

Wind History from LFI (wind in knots)
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W8W6W5NE6NE3CalmCalmW3W5W4W5W3W6W4W4W4W4CalmCalmCalmW6CalmE5
1 day agoSE6SE7E4NE6SE8SE6SE5SE7SE9SE10
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Tide / Current Tables for York Point, Poquoson River, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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York Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:48 AM EST     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:31 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:02 AM EST     2.47 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:32 PM EST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:23 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:09 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 10:19 PM EST     2.06 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.30.80.2-0.2-0.3-00.51.21.82.32.52.31.91.30.70.2-0.1-0.10.20.71.31.822

Tide / Current Tables for Quarter Point, York River, Virginia
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Quarter Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:53 AM EST     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:31 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:17 AM EST     2.39 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:37 PM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:23 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:09 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 10:34 PM EST     2.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.40.80.3-0.1-0.2-0.10.411.72.12.42.321.40.80.2-0.1-0.10.10.61.21.71.92

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.