Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rustburg, VA

KEY MESSAGES
1. A dry warming trend is expected through the weekend culminating in summer-like heat by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A dry warming trend is expected through the weekend culminating in summer-like heat by the middle of next week.

High pressure is dominating our weather pattern currently, though a weak cold front Saturday may generate some scattered clouds and isolated showers in northern NC.

For next week, high pressure returns, and the development of southwesterly winds across the region will advect an even warmer airmass into the region. Afternoon highs by the middle of next week are expected to climb well above normal, feeling more like mid-to- late June. 850mb temperatures are progged to be 1 to 2 standardized anomalies above normal. Humidity levels will remain relatively low compared to typical summer mugginess, so this will restrict heat indices from skyrocketing.

Expect worsening drought and fire risk. The prolonged heat and lack of rain will worsen ongoing drought conditions. This also creates an environment making it difficult for fire suppression; any new fires will be difficult to contain.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) confirms this dry, warm pattern is likely to stick around. Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts predict a high probability of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation. While a few weak fronts may skim the forecast area next week, they are not expected to provide any significant relief.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions continue to be the order of the day underneath high pressure. A weak front may temporary lower some cigs and form clouds, but unlikely that any drop below 3kft. An isolated shower may form in the NC High Country and foothills Saturday, but it would be weak and wouldn't impact any TAF sites.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR likely continue through early next week. Even with the front Saturday, chances of sub-VFR are low.

FIRE WEATHER
Dry high pressure will be over the area into early next week, though a weak front moves across Saturday with a wind shift.
This will result in an extended period of warming and drying with little or no rain. Weak fronts may tease the area again next week, but overall chances for rain look minimal for the next 8-14 days. In general expecting mainly dry conditions with afternoon humidity minimums ranging from 25-35%. Some of the south facing slopes may test 20%.

Temperatures are expected to climb well above normal next week.
This will increase the risk of large, hard to control wildfires, heightened by summer-like heat and low humidity. Furthermore, the heat will create an unstable atmosphere, leading to gusty afternoon winds that can cause any new fire starts to spread rapidly.

All things considered, after this weekend, we will likely enter a multi-day stretch where prescribe fire will be discouraged in lieu of resources being needed for wildfire suppression.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.