Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pulaski, VA

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 748 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025

For the most part, the forecast remains on track with only a tweak made "here or there."

Quiet weather conditions continue across the forecast area early this evening, with satellite imagery showing scattered cloud cover mainly along and west of the Blue Ridge. A weak front will continue its eastward progression through the forecast area this evening, and should be off the Eastern Seaboard by sunrise Sunday. Even though no precipitation is expected (of any consequence anyway) with the front, the pressure gradient should remain tight. As such, expect gusty winds to continue through the night and into the day Sunday.

Wind speeds could remain in the 10-15 mph range overnight, especially along the ridgetops, with higher gusts. Speeds should pick up again Sunday morning, with some decrease in speed anticipated as the gradient starts to relax toward sunset tomorrow.

As of 215 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

1) Windy conditions through the remainder of today.

2) Breezy again Sunday.

3) Dry through the remainder of the weekend.

Windy conditions observed this afternoon per tight pressure gradient around trough axis swinging through the Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be common through the remainder of the afternoon. Gusts up to 45 mph are possible at the highest elevations. Morning sounding indicated a healthy jet aloft with winds near 50kts within 5kft of the ground.

Tonight, the pressure gradient is expected to stay tight enough to keep winds blowing but not as windy as this afternoon. Will have clear to partly cloudy skies...some clouds spilling into the CWA from the north courtesy of the upper trough. Not expecting any shower activity from this feature across our CWA, but conceivable that showers may brush Greenbrier county WV and the VA Highlands this evening and early tonight (north of I-64)
as the trough passes by to our north.

Sunday looks dry. The upper trough will have moved into New England, but still close enough to influence our winds. Breezy conditions are expected with gusts 20 to 30 mph. High pressure will eventually build into the area by Sunday night, winds diminishing at sunset.

Temperatures tonight...50s mountains to the lower 60s piedmont.
Temperatures Sunday...70s mountains to the lower 80s piedmont.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

1) Next best chance of precipitation is Tuesday

With the cold front through, temperatures and dew points will take a temporary hit and start to increase by mid-next week. An omega block pattern with high pressure over the eastern CONUS will increase 500mb heights and (with the aid of an approaching surface low)
resupply the region with moisture. Dew points are expected to move back into the 50s and 60s with higher values towards the south. Low temperatures will be cool to mild in the mid 50s to mid 60s and highs will be mild to warm in the upper 60s to the lower 80s.

A ridge rider is likely to bring precipitation on Tuesday. Model guidance suggests the entire region will get rain and current estimates range between 0.33-1.00 inches in total accumulation. The Weather Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for counties along and west of the Blue Ridge to account for a potential flood hazard.

Severe weather is currently unlikely for Tuesday as the air is not projected to be unstable enough to promote serious convection.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Chance of precipitation middle of next week

2) Cooling trend late next week

Around the middle of next week, there will be another opportunity for rain and thunderstorms. Two surface pressure systems are to form and pass through the eastern CONUS. One will be to our north, and one to our south, connected by what will likely be an occluded front which will pass through our sector. While moisture and CAPE look to favor convection, shear presence and strength is uncertain and lowers the forecast confidence in any severe weather potential. A disorganized low level jet looks to be present as the system moves through, there is model disagreement on where the 500mb jet will be.
For now, general thunderstorms are expected for the region.

After the system moves through, a cold and dry air mass moves in to take up the rest of the forecast period. Backing of heights will promote cold air advection and early morning temperatures will likely be in the 40s and 50s. The NBM is a bit aggressive and foresees wind chill values in the 30s along the more western and mountainous region. PWATs will tank and dew points are forecast to be as low as the 40s and 50s towards the end of next week. A high pressure system that is associated with this new air mass will linger around for the rest of the forecast period.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 748 PM EDT Sat May 17 2025

Expect mostly VFR flight categories through 18/2400 UTC across the forecast area, despite the presence of a SCTD-BKN Cu field along and W of the Blue Ridge. Downsloping into a dry airmass in the lee of the Blue Ridge should keep most of the skies SKC at these terminals overnight, save for some passing Ci/Cs. More cloud cover could be seen tomorrow area-wide as ridging strengthens and the upper flow becomes more SW. But any CIGs should remain CAVOK, with no restrictions anticipated.

Gusty winds will remain the biggest potential impact to aviation through the forecast period. W winds should hover around 10 kts (give-or-take) through the night, especially in the more mountainous areas in the W part of the forecast area. Higher gusts, possibly around 20 kts, will likely continue in the higher elevations. Expect

Cloud cover - mostly Ac/Cs - is expected to increase from the W this afternoon as a quick-moving storm system moves to our north. Any CIGs should remain AOA 120 through 26/0600 UTC, which should allow flight categories to remain VFR at area terminals this forecast period. Expect gusty, mostly W winds 15-20 kts, to be seen Sunday.

OUTLOOK SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sunday-Monday: No restrictions anticipated.

Tuesday-Wednesday Night: Increasing probabilities of SHRA/TSRA as a storm system moves toward the region. Restrictions will be possible with occasionally lowered CIGs /VSBYs IVOF SHRA/TSRA.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.