Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Vansant, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
As of 1105 PM Thursday...

Temperatures have plummeted across the region this evening following sunset amid clear sky and calm wind, with 30s/40s nearly area-wide already. Some of the mountain valleys are already down to the freezing mark, with upper 30s across the typical lowland valley cold spots. Otherwise, river valley 'steam' fog develops overnight, with coverage/location expected to be quite similar to last night, perhaps a touch more widespread. No changes were made to the frost/freeze headlines, with the forecast remaining on track.

As of 640 PM Thursday...

Afternoon mixing has resulted in surface dew points quite similar to that of yesterday afternoon/evening across the forecast area. The main difference between tonight and last night is that surface high pressure will be centered overhead the region, resulting in near calm SFC-H925 flow across the forecast area, which should allow the region to radiate extremely well given clear skies. Given such, a persistence forecast in terms of overnight temperatures compared to last night, but a bit cooler (generally a couple to few degrees), seems quite reasonable. With this in mind, have tweaked progged overnight temperatures down across the forecast area, resulting in a slight expansion of the Frost Advisory, as well as the Freeze Warning. A SPS for patchy frost potential has been issued for all other zones left out of the two aforementioned headlines. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 210 PM Thursday...

High pressure remains anchored over the region for today and heading into the end of the work week. Ample sunshine this afternoon will yield high temperatures in the mid to upper 60s across the lowlands, but still falling a few degrees below normal under the guise of cooler air filtering in along northerly flow.

Another strong radiational cooling night will be in play for tonight, advertising more frost potential across the forecast area. With the help of model guidance that has trended well these past few days with overnight low temps, did elect to knock down tonight's lows a few degrees more than the NBM. This promotes a wider area of possibility for frost into our northwest zones of the lower Ohio River Valley.

With this update, the frost advisory has been expanded to include portions of northwest West Virginia and southeast Ohio.
Otherwise, frost/freeze headlines hoisted up by the previous forecaster remain in play for overnight into Friday morning.
Friday morning lows in the mid to upper 30s will be common in the lower elevations while our highest mountain zones in the Freeze Warning could tumble down below freezing.

After daybreak, overnight river valley fog will erode and temperatures will gradually rise out of near freezing thresholds. This will then branch out to another quiet and near seasonable afternoon to round out the work week. Repositioning of the surface high will yield Friday afternoon temperatures a few degrees warmer than what will be observed today.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 1221 PM Thursday...

After a chilly start Saturday morning, warm weather will return by the afternoon under clear to partly cloudy skies as high pressure centers itself over the Southeast U.S. A light southwest wind during the afternoon will allow temperatures to rise a little above average for the middle of October. Temperatures won't drop quite as low overnight into Sunday morning. Expect lows from the upper 40s in the mountains to the lower 50s in the lowlands.

Sunday will be a little warmer than Saturday with our region positioned in the warm sector of the next mid-latitude cyclone.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will also return Sunday afternoon ahead of the next cold front. Rain chances look most likely across northern portions of West Virginia. A tightened surface pressure gradient associated with the low will also bring windy conditions across the forecast area Sunday into Sunday night, with the gustiest winds most likely in the mountains. Exact details are uncertain at this time, but wind gusts to at least 30 mph in the WV northern mountains appears likely.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 1221 PM Thursday...

A transition to much colder weather is expected early next week behind the cold front as a large longwave trough dives southward over the eastern U.S. Expect high temperatures in the 50s and lower 60s areawide, with overnight lows dropping into the 30s, even across the lowlands. The first snowflakes of the season will be possible across the WV northern mountains late Monday night and into Tuesday, but it is uncertain at this time if anything would accumulate this early in the season with warm ground temperatures.

Milder weather looks to return by Thursday or Friday next week as 500-mb heights rise and high pressure settles back into the area.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 126 AM Friday...

Widespread VFR conditions will prevail at most sites overnight, except for IFR/LIFR restrictions under dense fog at EKN, CRW and HTS during the predawn hours. EKN could fog starting at 09Z, while CRW and HTS could see a morning surprise fogging at 10 or 11Z. Any fog will gradually dissipate by 13Z, leading to widespread VFR conditions.

Surface winds go calm overnight. Light and variable flow is expected on Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium with fog tonight. Otherwise, high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage and timing of fog early Friday morning may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE FRI 10/11/24 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M L L L L H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in river valley fog Saturday morning.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ006>011- 013>020-026>030-033-034-515>517.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ031-032-039- 040-518>526.
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ066-067-075- 076-083>087.
KY...None.
VA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ003-004.