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FXUS63 KPAH 032324 AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 524 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

AVIATION UPDATE

KEY MESSAGES
- Spotty chances of light rain late tonight and early tomorrow and again late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

- Mainly dry and warming above normal for the end of the work week.

- Another chance of widespread rain next weekend.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1225 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

The general pattern will remain fairly similar through the middle of the week with troughing over the eastern CONUS and ridging over the west. This will allow several shortwaves to pass through the area, bringing increased cloud cover along with small chances for rain showers. None of them will have much moisture to work with, but there will be enough to squeeze out some showers. The first one will swing through the Quad State late tonight into Monday morning, while the next arrive late Monday night into Tuesday. Again, those time periods will be the next small chance for rain showers across the area. The troughing in place and intermittent cloud cover/showers will allow temperatures to remain near to perhaps slightly below normal through Tuesday. For comparison, normal high temperatures are in the low 50s with lows in the low 40s for this time of year.

Wednesday through the end of the week, expect the pattern to shift with riding expected to slide eastward across the Quad State area.
This will lead to above normal temperatures, while surface ridging allows for more sunshine and very minimal chances for precipitation.
The next chance of widespread precipitation will arrive for next weekend; however, there continues to be large differences in model solutions for that time period. Details with respect to thunderstorm activity and precipitation totals are murky at best at this time. A blend of the models seems to be handling the situation bringing at least scattered rain showers to much of the area Saturday into Sunday. Temperatures are still expected to remain well above normal!

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 520 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

Lower cigs will move in later tonight after midnight and bring the chance for some showers as well to mainly northern portions of the area. Some of these showers may reduce visibility slightly. Showers will taper off in the morning hours after 13Z but lower cigs will remain. Winds are light out of the south and southwest for now and will switch around to the north and northeast with the system coming through and should pick up some.

PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

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Paducah, KY,