Monday, August19, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Olmsted, IL

Version 3.4
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 7:46PM Monday August 19, 2019 11:52 AM CDT (16:52 UTC) Moonrise 10:09PMMoonset 9:53AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Olmsted, IL
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location: 37.18, -89.08     debug

Area Discussion for - Paducah, KY
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Fxus63 kpah 191142
area forecast discussion
national weather service paducah ky
642 am cdt Mon aug 19 2019

Issued at 643 am cdt Mon aug 19 2019
updated aviation discussion for 12z tafs.

Short term (today through Wednesday night)
issued at 340 am cdt Mon aug 19 2019
the main concern in the short term is the potential for isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms today, primarily across
the northwest half of the area. Then our attention turns to the
potential for better shower and thunderstorm coverage Tuesday and
Wednesday, including some potential for severe weather. The heat
and humidity is another concern. Overall forecast confidence is
decent, but restricted by the typical mesoscale uncertainties.

Unlike the past two mornings, no mesoscale convective systems are
present over the plains early this morning. As a result, we think
the pattern today should be much more subdued compared to over the
weekend. That said, forecast models still indicate some potential
for isolated pulse type thunderstorms in the heat of the afternoon
today. This could occur just about anywhere, but chances appear to
be slightly higher over southeast missouri and southern illinois.

Will cap chances at 30 percent for now.

Most of tonight is looking dry, but Tuesday warrants closer
attention as multiple convection allowing models, including the
hrw (nssl, arw, nmmb), and namnest depict the generation of a
convective complex over iowa tonight, then progress it southeast
into the immediate forecast area by Tuesday afternoon. This is of
particular concern since it's forecast to arrive during the time
of peak heating, with very unstable conditions (sbcapes 4-5kj kg).

Upper level winds are admittedly not that strong, but with such
unstable conditions, it's not going to take much to maintain an
already mature self-sufficient mcs. While confidence is still not
the best, we need to keep a close watch on Tuesday afternoon for
the potential of widespread damaging winds. At this time, the spc
day 2 outlook has much of the area in either a slight or marginal
risk of severe weather. Monitor later forecasts for updates.

As the upper high begins to retreat to the west, energy rotating
around its eastern periphery in northwest flow aloft will set the
stage for additional shower and thunderstorm activity heading into
Wednesday and Wednesday night as a cold front approaches. At this
time, models are not in the best agreement as to how all of this
pans out, and the activity on Tuesday could have some influence as
well. As a result, we'll keep chance probabilities going Wednesday
and Wednesday night and adjust from there in later updates.

Heat and humidity will persist through the short term as well.

High temperatures should range from 90 to 95 through the period,
with lows from 70 to 75. With dew points ranging from 70 to 75,
peak afternoon heat index values of 100 to near 105 are forecast
across much of the area each afternoon today through Wednesday.

Given the marginal nature of the heat, we opted against headlines
at this time. Will address in a special weather statement for now.

Long term (Thursday through Sunday)
issued at 340 am cdt Mon aug 19 2019
the medium range guidance has trended slower with the cold front and
associated drying over the last 48 hours. At this point, confidence
in pop trends is quite low and it is reasonable to suspect that the
cold front may not make it through the entire area. The consensus
forecast now has the cold front moving through the region on
Thursday. 50-60% pops are definitely warranted for Thursday. The
drier air will lag behind the frontal wind shift, so 40-50% pops
will linger into Friday over the southern half of the region.

Over the weekend we will be on the southern fringe of the westerlies
with weak surface high pressure at the surface. Weak disturbances in
the flow aloft could help touch off a few storms Saturday through
Monday, so we will keep some lower chance pops throughout the area
each day. Dewpoints on Saturday stay under 70f, but south winds will
bring the lower 70s dewpoints back across the area for Sunday and
Monday. Saturday may have the best shot at actually being dry, but
with the forecast trending wetter, confidence is too low to leave
pops out at this time. Two days ago, Thursday through Saturday
looked like a fairly dry stretch, but now it could be a rather wet

High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower to middle 80s
Thursday through Sunday, with some upper 80s possible Monday. These
cooler temperatures may be the result of cloud cover and
precipitation as much as any advections associated with the cold
front. Won't be surprised if the forecast trends warmer with time.

Issued at 643 am cdt Mon aug 19 2019
other than patchy nighttime fog,VFR conditions are anticipated
through tonight. This afternoon, isolated thunderstorms may occur
mainly northwest of a kpof-kevv line. Maintained a vcsh mention
at kcgi and kmvn for that reason. Light south winds will prevail.

Pah watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

Mo... None.

In... None.

Ky... None.

Update... Rjp
short term... Rjp
long term... Drs
aviation... Rjp

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cairo Regional Airport, IL11 mi77 minS 410.00 miFair82°F74°F78%1017.6 hPa
Metropolis Municipal Airport, IL17 mi77 minW 37.00 miFair84°F73°F70%1017.9 hPa
Paducah, Barkley Regional Airport, KY18 mi59 minSW 310.00 miFair86°F73°F65%1016.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCIR

Wind History from CIR (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW9S10
1 day agoSW6S7SW8S8
2 days agoS9SW8SW9S6SW7W6W5CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5S4CalmCalmS3SW4W6SW5SW3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Paducah, KY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Paducah, KY
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