Marine Weather and Tides
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen
|Sunrise 6:56AM||Sunset 4:41PM||Friday December 6, 2019 7:50 PM CST (01:50 UTC)||Moonrise 2:48PM||Moonset 2:18AM||Illumination 76%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Olmsted, ILHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Paducah, KY  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KPAH 062343 AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 543 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019
UPDATE. Issued at 542 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019
Updated Aviation Discussion for 00z TAFs.
SHORT TERM. (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 251 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019
Surface high pressure is surging southward through the area behind this morning's disturbance. North winds have picked up and become gusty and low clouds are developing and advection southward across the area. The main issue for tonight and Saturday, is the how long the low clouds will linger over the area. The consensus of guidance holds the low clouds over at least west Kentucky and far southeast Missouri through the night and possibly well into Saturday. For now will hold onto the clouds through the night over west Kentucky and eventually scatter them out for the afternoon hours.
The gusty winds will subside through the evening, but we should keep enough wind to prevent fog formation in areas that clear out tonight. Tried to go with the lower end of guidance for lows tonight in the northwest, but where the clouds linger the forecast will probably not be warm enough. Highs Saturday are on the low side of guidance, and may not be low enough if/where the low clouds do not scatter.
South winds will develop Saturday night, and a long period of low-level warm, moist advection will commence. This should result in low clouds developing throughout the area by daybreak Sunday and continuing through 12Z Monday. Saturation should not be deep enough to support any drizzle or light rain early Sunday, but by Sunday afternoon a few areas of light rain or drizzle will be possible.
As an upper-level storm system approaches Sunday night, the moist boundary layer will deepen substantially, making light rain a decent bet in most locations with the best chances in the east and northeast. The 12Z GFS has more forcing and saturates the entire troposphere, so more substantial rains would be possible in that scenario. For now will stick with the lighter consensus QPF with generally less than a tenth of an inch overnight Sunday night.
LONG TERM. (Monday through Friday) Issued at 251 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019
Main system in the long term period will be early in the week. Models indicate that this will be a relatively quick hitting system that will only impact the area Monday into Monday night. A large scale upper trough will be moving through the western CONUS Sunday night and continue moving through the central part of the country on Monday through Tuesday. As this occurs, a cold front will sweep across the area from west to east Monday into Monday night. Rain will be ongoing at the start of the period and the highest coverage of showers should be east of the Mississippi River, so therefore we will continue to indicate our highest PoPs in these areas. By Monday afternoon, as the front continues to press eastward, the coverage and chances of precipitation for southeast Missouri will significantly dwindle with chances continuing across most of the area. Some instability parameters indicate that there could be a few claps of thunder from time to time on Monday as well.
The bigger concern right now is Monday night. Models continue to differ on how much precipitation will be lingering on Monday evening and into the overnight hours. Much colder air will be filtering in behind the front as strong cold air advection takes place, which could mean a changeover to snow or a rain/snow mixture could be probable. The latest GFS indicates that not much precipitation will be left as we head into the evening hours, but it is an outlier compared to the GFS ensemble mean, Canadian and ECWMF, which do hang onto the precipitation at least into the evening hours with even some post frontal redevelopment noted. Think the operational GFS may be too quick to exit the precipitation as many of the GFS ensemble members do indicate at some lingering QPF during Monday evening.
However, looking at critical thickness levels between 00Z-06Z Tuesday, the cold air is only making it into parts of southern Illinois and southeast MO and probably closer to 06Z. This means any changeover or mix should occur after midnight when most of the precipitation will generally be east of the area. The ECMWF and several of the GFS ensemble members are slower and indicate the best chances for any wintry precipitation, although light, could occur in parts of southeast Indiana and western KY after midnight Monday night possibly extending into early Tuesday morning. Right now though, it is not looking like any substantial accumulations should occur.
After this early week system, there will be a lull in any significant weather systems heading our way although what we will notice is a huge drop in temperatures. After highs in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees on Monday, highs will only be in the 30s on Tuesday with even colder readings likely on Wednesday. Some areas in our far northern counties along and north of I-64 will only reach the upper 20s for highs on Wednesday after Tuesday night lows in the teens in many places. Only slightly warmer weather is expected as we head into Thursday but we should reach the lower 40s by Friday as we obtain some southerly flow.
AVIATION. Issued at 542 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019
Low confidence forecast regarding how long MVFR ceilings will hang around. Leaning pessimistic over much of western Kentucky due to weak steering flow developing overnight into tomorrow. Even in some areas that clear out this evening, MVFR cigs may try to move back in late tonight into tomorrow morning. This isn't expected over northern terminals (KMVN/KEVV), but may be the case at KCGI/KPAH. Otherwise, gusty northerly winds early this evening will decrease overnight and veer to light east/southeasterly tomorrow.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. IL . None. MO . None. IN . None. KY . None.
UPDATE . SP SHORT TERM . DRS LONG TERM . DRS AVIATION . SP
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|Cairo Regional Airport, IL||11 mi||75 min||N 12 G 15||10.00 mi||Overcast||42°F||36°F||81%||1026.1 hPa|
|Metropolis Municipal Airport, IL||17 mi||55 min||N 8||10.00 mi||Overcast||44°F||36°F||75%||1026.4 hPa|
|Paducah, Barkley Regional Airport, KY||18 mi||57 min||NNE 12||8.00 mi||Overcast||45°F||36°F||71%||1025.6 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KCIR
Wind History from CIR (wind in knots)
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|2 days ago||SW||Calm||SW||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||SW||W||W||W||W||W||Calm||SW||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm|
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific Contential US Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Paducah, KY (20,4,5,8)(on/off)  Help
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