Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Olmsted, IL
March 28, 2024 11:56 PM CDT (04:56 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:47 AM Sunset 7:18 PM Moonrise 10:51 PM Moonset 8:15 AM |
Area Discussion for - Paducah, KY
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FXUS63 KPAH 290454 AAA AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Paducah KY 1154 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A warming trend will cause temperatures to warm well into the 70s through the weekend, possibly nearing 80 by the end of the weekend into early next week.
- Fire danger remains elevated over portions of southeast Missouri today and western Kentucky Friday due to dry conditions with RH values falling below 30%.
- Rain chances increase by Sunday night and continue on Monday and Tuesday. A cold front will eventually move through late Monday into early Tuesday with the risk for storms. Some storms could be strong to severe, but it is too early to know if we will be under the main risk.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 321 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Weak anticyclonic flow associated with sfc high pressure over the lower Mississippi River Valley is allowing for seasonable conditions with maxTs in the lower 60s. Meanwhile, GOES-16 Water Vapor imagery shows the backside of a trough aloft now lifting through the FA as rising heights and WAA will increase temps by 10 degrees on Friday.
Due to extremely dry conditions and low fuels, the fire weather danger remains a bit elevated today, especially in the Ozarks where RH values are below 25%. With that said, conditions will be a bit more breezy on Friday as the pressure gradient tightens on the backside of the high pressure. BUFKIT model thermal profiles show mixing to near 850 mb where a deep dry layer will be present. For this reason, think the dewpoints will mix a bit lower into the 30s, especially across the Kentucky Pennyrile where the fire danger will be elevated with RH values falling below 30%. This also means maxTs slightly above model guidance, especially with robust diurnal heating.
The weekend will start off unseasonably warm with maxTs in the mid to upper 70s as a 500 mb closed low digs into California allowing for a more amplified ridge downstream. Model guidance shows a frontal boundary will setup just north of the I-64 corridor on Saturday as the first wave of low pressure moves towards the Great Lakes region. Pcpn chances are limited to 20-30% PoPs across the north as most of the FA likely remains dry. By Sunday, the aformentioned boundary tries to sag more south as southerly winds allow for an influx of theta-e. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s translates to about 300-600 J/kg of 0-1 km MLCAPE, but CIN around 850 mb likely inhibits much in the way of convection with NBM PoPs only progged around 30% across the north. It will certainly be quite warm with maxTs nearing 80 degrees!
As subtle impluses round the base of the ridge axis, the first period when the chance of seeing convection may be more favorable is late Sunday night into Monday morning. The 12z GFS is the most robust in supporting elevated convection riding along the frontal boundary while the CMC/ECMWF keep the boundary more north. Steep 700- 500 mb lapse rates of 8.0-8.5 C/km, 0-6km bulk shear of 40 kts, and a low WBZ around 700 mb would support some hail potential. This will certainly be something to watch for as it is not uncommon to see an initial elevated storm risk along CAPE gradients in these warm sector regimes.
Monday evening into Tuesday morning, a 500 mb shortwave ahead of a more broad positively tilted longwave trough will eject leeward of the Rockies across the central Plains as sfc low pressure moves northeast towards Iowa/Illinois. This is when the synoptic flow at 250 mb becomes more divergent in the left exit region of a 120+ kt jet over the southern Plains. NBM PoPs really ramp up Monday evening into Monday night as a cold front approaches. There will certainly be sufficient moisture with dewpoints around 63-65 degrees. As for the severe weather potential, while the setup is favorable, there is also quite a bit of uncertainty. The GFS supports a nocturnal severe minimum across portions of the FA that the SPC references in their D5/D6 discussion. One reason for this is how far NW the low is with the better instability/forcing. However, the ECMWF/CMC are much slower with fropa and show convection late Monday night into Tuesday morning, but the better instability more south.
Despite the uncertainty, one thing that is a bit concerning is the amount of deep layer shear with sfc-6 km in the 50-60 kt range.
Model soundings do show hodographs that become more elongated with curvature Monday night as sfc winds become more backed. Combined with mid-level cooling that results in steepening lapse-rates and MLCAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range, the parameters are certainly favorable for severe weather potential. Until we can get a better on the evolution of the low, shortwave, and jet placement, it is too early to know if the PAH CWA will be in bullseye. There is also a marginal risk for excessive rainfall as PWATs rise above the 90th percentile between 1.25-1.50 inches with the NAEFS showing the Integrated WV Transport rising above 750 kgm-1/s-1. If the front slows down, some training would certainly be a concern as the mid- level winds become more parallel to the front.
Behind the cold front, a colder/dry airmass settles over the FA for the middle of the week as another trough ejects over the Ohio Valley. Models show 850 mb temps falling below freezing again Tuesday night, with temps near to slightly below normal for this time of year on Wednesday before quickly rebounding on Thursday.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
VFR conditions with relatively light winds are anticipated through the overnight. Winds will increase out of the south to southwest and become gusty tomorrow by late morning. VFR conditions remain expected through the remainder of the TAF period.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Paducah KY 1154 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A warming trend will cause temperatures to warm well into the 70s through the weekend, possibly nearing 80 by the end of the weekend into early next week.
- Fire danger remains elevated over portions of southeast Missouri today and western Kentucky Friday due to dry conditions with RH values falling below 30%.
- Rain chances increase by Sunday night and continue on Monday and Tuesday. A cold front will eventually move through late Monday into early Tuesday with the risk for storms. Some storms could be strong to severe, but it is too early to know if we will be under the main risk.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 321 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Weak anticyclonic flow associated with sfc high pressure over the lower Mississippi River Valley is allowing for seasonable conditions with maxTs in the lower 60s. Meanwhile, GOES-16 Water Vapor imagery shows the backside of a trough aloft now lifting through the FA as rising heights and WAA will increase temps by 10 degrees on Friday.
Due to extremely dry conditions and low fuels, the fire weather danger remains a bit elevated today, especially in the Ozarks where RH values are below 25%. With that said, conditions will be a bit more breezy on Friday as the pressure gradient tightens on the backside of the high pressure. BUFKIT model thermal profiles show mixing to near 850 mb where a deep dry layer will be present. For this reason, think the dewpoints will mix a bit lower into the 30s, especially across the Kentucky Pennyrile where the fire danger will be elevated with RH values falling below 30%. This also means maxTs slightly above model guidance, especially with robust diurnal heating.
The weekend will start off unseasonably warm with maxTs in the mid to upper 70s as a 500 mb closed low digs into California allowing for a more amplified ridge downstream. Model guidance shows a frontal boundary will setup just north of the I-64 corridor on Saturday as the first wave of low pressure moves towards the Great Lakes region. Pcpn chances are limited to 20-30% PoPs across the north as most of the FA likely remains dry. By Sunday, the aformentioned boundary tries to sag more south as southerly winds allow for an influx of theta-e. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s translates to about 300-600 J/kg of 0-1 km MLCAPE, but CIN around 850 mb likely inhibits much in the way of convection with NBM PoPs only progged around 30% across the north. It will certainly be quite warm with maxTs nearing 80 degrees!
As subtle impluses round the base of the ridge axis, the first period when the chance of seeing convection may be more favorable is late Sunday night into Monday morning. The 12z GFS is the most robust in supporting elevated convection riding along the frontal boundary while the CMC/ECMWF keep the boundary more north. Steep 700- 500 mb lapse rates of 8.0-8.5 C/km, 0-6km bulk shear of 40 kts, and a low WBZ around 700 mb would support some hail potential. This will certainly be something to watch for as it is not uncommon to see an initial elevated storm risk along CAPE gradients in these warm sector regimes.
Monday evening into Tuesday morning, a 500 mb shortwave ahead of a more broad positively tilted longwave trough will eject leeward of the Rockies across the central Plains as sfc low pressure moves northeast towards Iowa/Illinois. This is when the synoptic flow at 250 mb becomes more divergent in the left exit region of a 120+ kt jet over the southern Plains. NBM PoPs really ramp up Monday evening into Monday night as a cold front approaches. There will certainly be sufficient moisture with dewpoints around 63-65 degrees. As for the severe weather potential, while the setup is favorable, there is also quite a bit of uncertainty. The GFS supports a nocturnal severe minimum across portions of the FA that the SPC references in their D5/D6 discussion. One reason for this is how far NW the low is with the better instability/forcing. However, the ECMWF/CMC are much slower with fropa and show convection late Monday night into Tuesday morning, but the better instability more south.
Despite the uncertainty, one thing that is a bit concerning is the amount of deep layer shear with sfc-6 km in the 50-60 kt range.
Model soundings do show hodographs that become more elongated with curvature Monday night as sfc winds become more backed. Combined with mid-level cooling that results in steepening lapse-rates and MLCAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range, the parameters are certainly favorable for severe weather potential. Until we can get a better on the evolution of the low, shortwave, and jet placement, it is too early to know if the PAH CWA will be in bullseye. There is also a marginal risk for excessive rainfall as PWATs rise above the 90th percentile between 1.25-1.50 inches with the NAEFS showing the Integrated WV Transport rising above 750 kgm-1/s-1. If the front slows down, some training would certainly be a concern as the mid- level winds become more parallel to the front.
Behind the cold front, a colder/dry airmass settles over the FA for the middle of the week as another trough ejects over the Ohio Valley. Models show 850 mb temps falling below freezing again Tuesday night, with temps near to slightly below normal for this time of year on Wednesday before quickly rebounding on Thursday.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
VFR conditions with relatively light winds are anticipated through the overnight. Winds will increase out of the south to southwest and become gusty tomorrow by late morning. VFR conditions remain expected through the remainder of the TAF period.
PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KCIR CAIRO RGNL,IL | 11 sm | 21 min | SW 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 52°F | 39°F | 62% | 30.14 | |
KPAH BARKLEY RGNL,KY | 18 sm | 63 min | SSW 03 | 10 sm | Clear | 52°F | 32°F | 47% | 30.14 |
Paducah, KY,
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