Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Poquoson, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 315 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A Flood Watch is in effect for portions of central and SE VA and NE NC into tonight.

- A Marginal Risk for severe weather is in effect for approximately the same area for an isolated strong to severe storm, with damaging winds being the primary threat.

The latest WX analysis shows a frontal boundary, slowly lifting to the NE as a warm front, and pushing to near the I-64 corridor. Partial clearing south of the front has allowed for scattered tstm development in the warm sector, and expect these storms to become rather widespread over the next few hrs into the early evening. To the NE of the boundary, a relatively cool and moist airmass is in place with temperatures in the low-mid 70s. SPC mesoanalysis indicates ML CAPE ~2500 J/Kg (sfc- based CAPE ~4000 J/Kg), across NE NC, tapered in a sharp gradient to near zero instability across the northern Neck and eastern shore. Bulk shear values are fairly weak, on the order of 20-25kt, though with a sfc boundary in place, some enhanced low level shear will be present so an isolated spin up TOR can't be ruled out into the evening. The primary severe threat will be from localized strong/damaging wind gusts in the strongest storms.

The Flood Watch has been expanded north to include most of metro Richmond given the slight northward push of the front given WSW flow aloft as the next shortwave moves in from the W The placement of the boundary will be crucial for the location of the highest rainfall totals. The 12Z HRRR shows a 70% contour for neighborhood probs of 3"/3 hr across south central VA, with a 50% contour encompassing much of central and south- central VA, and the remainder of zones in the watch within the 30% contour. The main timing for the heaviest rainfall looks like 5pm-11pm Current deterministic QPF forecast through tonight is for 2-3" across most of the area in the Watch (1-2" on the northern tier of counties). As is typically the case, locally higher amounts are possible in areas of training storms.

Temperatures are very cool on the ern shore, in the upper 60s to lower 70s, while they have risen into the mid/upper 80s outside of tstms for south central VA and interior NE NC. Rain slowly tapers off after midnight, though will likely linger few hrs longer along the coast. Overnight lows will be in the mid 60s N to lower 70s SE.

Unsettled weather will continue Monday, but with sfc low pressure pushing offshore of SE VA in the morning, expect the boundary to get pushed back south towards NC, with limited instability to the north. While areas along and S/SW of I-64 are in a Marginal ERO Monday, the risk may become confined to far southern VA and NE NC (unless the front does not sink to the south as predicted). A few showers are still possible closer to the coast in the morning, with aftn PoPs generally only in the chc range except over far southern VA and NE NC (50-70%). Highs Monday will be below avg, generally in the 70s for northern and central zones, with low- mid 80s across the south.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 345 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Remaining unsettled Tuesday with a few late day strong to severe storms possible.

- Mainly dry and hot Wednesday.

Another shortwave, this one a bit stronger is expected to approach from the west with the upper trough on Tuesday. The sfc boundary is expected to wash out, with more of a southerly low level flow developing, along with decent aftn instability. Shear is still modest at best (20-30kt), but mid level lapse rates are a bit stronger so a Marginal risk is in place for the western 2/3 of our VA zones. Would be a wind threat and perhaps hail given better mid level lapse rates. Highs in the lower 80s in the Eastern Shore to upper 80s for portions of south central VA and NE NC. Drying out Tue night, and mainly dry Wednesday as the upper ridge across the SE expands north. Highs Wed should rise into the lower 90s for most, and with a humid airmass, heat indices may rise above 100F. Given the wet soils, suspect the temperatures may not get quite as hot as guidance, but that the humidity will remain high.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 400 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Another round of showers Shower/storm chances drop off to near climo, with temperatures trending back above normal by mid to late week.

Model 850 mb temperatures rise to 19-20C Thursday, which would support highs into the low- mid 90s, along with continued moderate to high humidity. Heat indices will be the highest on Thursday, likely above 100F, possibly close to headline criteria in the SE (though this is several days out so confidence is not high). There is a SLight risk day 5 for Thursday, given strong instability, enough dry air aloft with strong mid level lapse rates and decent shear.

Slightly cooler (still above avg), with lower humidity and rain-free Friday. Mainly dry WX continues into next weekend, with hot temperatures returning late in the period. In fact, the ensembles are in good agreement with an upper level trough across the western CONUS and a strong upper level ridge in the east, which would bring the potential for an extended hot period in the 8-14 day period.

AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 717 PM EDT Sunday...

As of the start of the 00z TAF period wide spread showers and thunderstorms are moving across the area. These showers and thunderstorms are bringing wide spread flight restrictions across all TAF sites. The stronger thunderstorms are currently located across SE VA and NE NC. These thunderstorms have lead for an additional tempo for thunderstorms across PHF/ORF/ECG till a 3z. RIC continues to have a TEMPO for thunderstorms as an embedded thunderstorm is possible ~2z this evening. For SBY no thunderstorms are expected however, IFR CIGS continue to move across the area. In, addition rain showers are continuing to move N-NE and will across the Eastern shore within the next 1 to 2 hours. The showers will diminish in coverage/intensity later tonight, though IFR restrictions, mainly in low CIGs are likely overnight and through at least 12-15Z Monday. A lower shower/tstm coverage is expected Monday, but low clouds and a few showers may keep restrictions going most of the day.

Outlook: Additional shower/tstm chances are expected Tue aftn/evening, with a lower coverage Wednesday. A cold front will bring another round of scattered showers/tstms later Thu/Thu night.

MARINE
As of 330 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Relatively benign across the marine area into next week outside of convection.

A quasi-stationary front lingers across the area today before nudging to the south overnight. Latest obs show easterly winds that are generally ~10kt. A few sites in the lower bay are showing winds closer to 15kt. Buoy obs indicate seas of 3-4ft. Waves are 1-2ft.
The front is expected to linger just south of local waters through early this week. Another round of showers and thunderstorms may lead to SMWs this evening and overnight. Winds become more NE tomorrow, staying at 10-15kt with highest winds off the Eastern Shore. Seas remain at 3-4ft. Onshore flow continues into Tuesday, but under 10kt through the afternoon. Winds become S, then SW Tues night into Wednesday. Expecting breezier conditions Wed into Thurs ahead of a cold front. Current forecast is for ~15kt, but cannot totally rule out a SCA at this point.

Rip current risk is moderate N and low S today and Monday.

Rip currents risk is moderate N and low S today and Monday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Monday for NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Monday for VAZ060-065>068-079-080- 087-088-092-093-095>098.
Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ061-062-069-081- 082-089-513>516.
MARINE...None.