Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Scotland, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Dry with increasing clouds through the daytime hours today.

- Rain chances increase after sunset, with moderate to heavy rain overspreading the area after midnight.

- There is a Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook for much of the area tonight.

Dry conditions continue through the daylight hours today as high pressure, centered over Hudson Bay Canada, ridges south into the Mid Atlantic region. Skies will start out mostly clear this morning, but mid and high clouds will be on the increase from the west later this morning and especially this afternoon as our next storm system approaches. With light onshore flow and thickening clouds, high temperatures will be cooler than the past few days with highs generally ranging from the low-mid 70s north to the upper 70s to around 80 south.

For tonight, rain chances rapidly increase from west to east shortly after sunset. Rain will initially be light across the region due to the dry airmass over the area resulting in some overrunning. Heavier rainfall overspreads the area after midnight and lingers through the early morning hours of Wednesday. Still expecting rainfall accumulations up to an inch in some locations (especially NW) with locally higher amounts possible. WPC has placed a majority of the forecast area in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall tonight into early Wednesday due to the potential for localized flash flooding, especially in urban or poor drainage areas. Elevated instability increases throughout the night, especially south, so also cannot rule out some rumbles of thunder/isolated thunderstorms and enhanced areas of rainfall later tonight. SPC does have a Day 1 Marginal Risk clipping our far SW tonight, but would expect the overall severe risk (locally) tonight to be minimal, with the warm sector staying south of us.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Showers and storms continue into Wednesday afternoon, with localized strong to severe storms possible, especially south.

- Remaining unsettled into Thursday, especially across northern portions of the area.

By Wednesday AM, low pressure should be located just SW of the local area with a warm front likely hung up just south of southern CWA border. Meanwhile, another area of low pressure will be located over the Ohio Valley. The heavier rain from early in the morning/overnight Tuesday will continue to spread northeast, with a brief lull in the activity later in the morning into the early afternoon. Additional showers and thunderstorms are then expected to redevelop during the afternoon. Deep layer shear values increase to 50+ knots Wednesday afternoon. Instability is also expected to increase across southern portions of the forecast area during peak heating in the afternoon, so a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out through the evening, though it is more of a conditional threat that hinges upon how far the warm front can lift northwards.
The farther northward the warm front lifts, the broader the geographical extent the instability can reach. Early morning model guidance keeps the front and the northern extent of the instability roughly up to the VA/NC border. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat with any stronger storm that can develop in the warm sector.
There will also be a sharp gradient in temperatures from north to south of the front on Wednesday, with highs only in the 60s for our northern areas and upper 70s to lower 80s south. Convection will taper off from west to east Wednesday evening into the overnight hours.

Low pressure lifts off the Mid Atlantic coast off the Mid Atlantic coast will strengthening Wednesday night into Thursday. Meanwhile the other area of low pressure will linger near the northern Great Lakes. The two systems will result in additional rain chances Thursday afternoon, with the best chances focused across the northern half of the forecast area. High temperatures Thursday range from the lower 70s N and NW to the upper 70s to lower 80s across the SE. Rain chances diminish from SW to NE Thursday evening into Thursday night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and cool weather through the first of the Memorial Day Weekend.

- Becoming unsettled Sunday and beyond as multiple systems potentially approach the region.

Quiet/dry weather is expected Friday through Saturday with high pressure building back into the area. An upper low lingering near or just off of New England coast will keep temperatures below average on Friday-Saturday with high temperatures only in the 70s (potentially 60s N on Friday) and lows in the 40s and 50s. A little more uncertainty in the forecast for Sunday and beyond. Both the operational ECMWF and GFS have another storm system approaching during the day Sunday, bringing another round of light rain to the area. Didn't stray off the NBM for now, which shows 20-30% PoPs Sunday/Sunday night, but rain chances may trend upward with future forecast if the trend continues. Monday-Monday night also has the potential to be unsettled as another area of low pressure and a warm front lift north towards the local area. We likely remain unsettled into the middle of next week with continued chances for showers and storms.

AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 215 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the 06z/20 TAF period at all terminals. SCT high clouds over the area this morning into this afternoon. Clouds thicken and gradually lower later this afternoon into this evening ahead of our next weather system (but remain VFR). Light rain showers will be possible at RIC late in the forecast period (after ~03z) with the remainder of the sites staying dry through 06z Wed. N to NE winds prevail this morning into this afternoon, becoming E late in the day.

Outlook: Rain chances increase significantly Tuesday night, and widespread rain is expected later Tuesday night through most of Wednesday, with flight restrictions likely. E-SE winds of 10-20 kt (highest near the coast) are expected Wednesday. Mainly VFR Thursday but scattered aftn showers are possible. Dry/VFR Fri- Sat.

MARINE
As of 305 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages...

- Small Craft Advisories continue for the Chesapeake Bay through early this morning morning for elevated northerly winds.

- Low pressure impacts the region Wednesday into Thursday, with elevated winds and waves/seas likely.

Local waters are sandwiched between two areas of low pressure this morning: a stronger low off the coast of Nova Scotia and a weaker low near the southern waters. NNE winds are ~15kt with gusts to ~20kt over the bay and coastal waters, 10-15kt over the rivers/Currituck Sound. Buoy obs indicate seas of 2-3ft; waves are also around 2ft. SCAs are in place through 7am. Winds will diminish early this morning as both areas of low pressure push further offshore and the pressure gradient weakens locally. Then expecting benign marine conditions with N winds of 5-10kt through the evening.
Winds then turn onshore for tonight. Seas remain at 2-3ft through this evening.

SE winds will increase late tonight as a warm front lifts N toward the VA/NC border and an area of low pressure passing through the region along it. By early Wed morning, expecting SE winds to be up to 20-25kt (15-20kt for upper rivers/Currituck Sound). SCAs will be needed starting late tonight/early Wed, but will hold off for this cycle given the SCAs already in place this morning. Elevated onshore winds will continue through the day Wed, then diminish Wed night to ~15kt as winds turn to the NW behind the low pressure. Seas/waves will build to 4-5ft for all coastal waters and the lower bay Wed morning. Waves elsewhere will be 2-3ft. Onshore winds will remain stronger for longer N of Cape Charles on Wed, so seas in northern waters will build to 5-7ft by the evening.

Gusty westerly winds of 15-20kt are then expected during the day Thursday and into Thurs night as a secondary cold front or two make their way across the region. The offshore winds help seas drop back to 4-5ft by Thurs morning. Seas look to drop below 5ft no later than Fri morning as the offshore winds diminish to under 15kt. Breezy, but sub-SCA, conditions then expected for Friday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ630>632-634.