Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Scotland, VA

KEY MESSAGES
1) Remaining dry and seasonable this weekend.

2) Well above-normal temperatures next week, with record to near-record temperatures possible by midweek. Continued dry with fire weather concerns returning for much of the week.

DISCUSSION
As of 135 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Remaining dry and seasonable this weekend.

A weakening (dry) cold front has dropped through the region this afternoon, and is now south of the local area as of this writing. Winds have turned around to the NNE across the local area. Cool 1032 mb high pressure over the interior northeast/eastern Great Lakes builds to our north tonight into Sunday, and will serve to nudge the front farther to the south of the region this evening. Readings in the upper 60s to mid 70s warm into the 70s (mid 60s OXB) for most of the area, to near 80 over the far SW CWA (South Hill/Lawrenceville VA vicinity).
Pleasantly cool and dry tonight with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s for most, low to mid 40s over the MD eastern shore and VA northern neck.

High pressure builds across the northeast into New England tomorrow, before sliding offshore into Monday. As the airmass continues to slowly warm, look for seasonably mild to warm temperatures tomorrow in the mid to upper 70s inland, 65 to 70 just inland, and low to mid 60s along the immediate coast. The developing return flow will bump the front back toward our region early Monday through the middle of next week, with lows in the 50s to near 60 tomorrow night. This will bring temperatures back above normal for much of next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Well above-normal temperatures next week, with record to near-record temperatures possible by midweek. Continued dry with fire weather concerns returning for much of the week.

Anomalous upper-level ridging builds across the eastern U.S.
through Monday, with the building high sliding offshore and lingering across the western Atlantic. This set-up will allow for temperatures to steadily increase well above-normal by for the much of next. Lower 90s now appear likely Wednesday through (at least) the end of the week (upper 80s across the Eastern Shore and near the coast). Record high and high min temps look to be threatened across local climate sites Tue-Thu, with highs in the lower to middle mid 90s forecast for most areas away from the immediate coast. Record high temperatures have been highlighted in the climate section below.

With the high firmly anchored across the SE, any fronts that could break this stretch of well above normal temperatures will struggle to make it into our area. This will also serve to limit precipitation opportunities, and with no appreciable precipitation is expected through the end of next week, this will further exacerbate emerging drought conditions over the region. The latest 6-10 day precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center continues to highlight below normal chances for precipitation. Given these continued dry conditions, and with breezy conditions developing Mon/Tuesday, an increasing fire risk looks to develop on Monday. While not appearing to be quite breezy enough for Fire Wx Watch conditions, after collaboration with neighboring offices and fire weather officials, an increased fire danger Statement may well be needed for Monday. While breezy conditions ease a bit for the rest of the week, fire weather concerns will remain an issue to monitor for much of the week ahead.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 130 PM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions over area terminals this afternoon look to prevail through the TAF period at all terminals, with mostly clear skies and no precipitation expected. Winds have shifted to the NNE in the wake of a dry, weak cold front earlier today. Occasional wind gusts to 15 to 20 kts are possible through mid to late afternoon, especially at the coastal terminals, but will start to taper off this evening. Winds become E-NE this evening, but become light and variable winds are possible overnight. Some mid-level clouds are likely late tonight south of RIC-SBY, as low-level moisture return lingers along the weakening boundary.
Probs for MVFR CIGs remain low, so have maintained CIGS AOA 5kft AGL.

Outlook: VFR and dry conditions are expected to prevail Sunday through Wednesday.

MARINE
As of 215 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail throughout the weekend.

- Low-end SCAs possible due to increasing SW winds Sunday night and Monday.

A cold front dropped south of the waters this morning with briefly gusty N winds in its wake. However, winds have generally remained sub-SCA with only occasional gusts of 15 to 20 knots, thus the SCA for the lower Chesapeake Bay will be cancelled.
Seas are running around 4 feet and waves in the Chesapeake Bay 2 to 3 feet.

Winds veer to the east and diminish to ~10 kt this evening, with E- SE winds of 10-15 kt expected on Sunday as an area of high pressure slides past overhead and settles offshore. A period of low-end SCAs is possible Sun night/Mon as winds become SW at 15-20 kt as the high becomes suppressed to our SE and weak low pressure tracks well to our north. The best chc of SCAs is on the bay Sunday night with SCAs possible on the bay and perhaps the rivers during the day on Monday due to mixing over adjacent land areas. Winds remain out of the SW through at Thursday and average 10 to 15 knots with occasional higher surges.

CLIMATE
Record High Temps for 4/13 - 4/16

Record Record Record Record High/Year High/Year High/Year High/Year Location 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 91 (1977) 90 (1977) 92 (1941) 93 (1976)
Norfolk 88 (1977) 90 (1941) 90 (2024) 91 (1976)
Salisbury 87 (2023) 87 (1941) 87 (1941) 89 (1976)
Eliz. City 90 (1948) 90 (1941) 91 (1941) 90 (1941)

Record High Min Temps for 4/13 - 4/16

Record Record Record Record High High High High Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Min T/Year Location 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16 -------- ---- ----- ------ ------ Richmond 64 (1994) 65 (1899) 64 (2018) 64 (1912)
Norfolk 65 (1994) 68 (2019) 68 (1941) 66 (2017)
Salisbury 62 (2019) 65 (1945) 64 (2002) 63 (2017)
Eliz. City 67 (2019) 68 (2019) 68 (1974) 68 (1994)

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ632- 634.