Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Springfield, MO
July 3, 2024 12:43 AM CDT (05:43 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:56 AM Sunset 8:38 PM Moonrise 2:27 AM Moonset 6:03 PM |
Area Discussion for - Springfield, MO
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FXUS63 KSGF 030524 AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1224 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Heat and humidity persist into Thursday with afternoon heat indices of 95 to 110. The highest heat indices and threat for heat related illnesses will be across southern Missouri.
- Multiple rounds of thunderstorms from late tonight through early Friday morning. There is a Slight Risk (2/5) for damaging winds from some of these storms on Wednesday and the Fourth of July.
- Repeated rounds of thunderstorms will also result in a Slight Risk (2/4) for flash flooding on Wednesday with a Marginal Risk (1/4) for Thursday.
- Slightly cooler temperatures and drier from Friday afternoon into Saturday.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Upper level analysis shows an upper level ridge over the eastern U.S, with its ridge axis extending from the Mississippi valley into the Ohio valley. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough situated over the Rockies is moving east into the Great Plains. Closer to the surface, a north-south stationary front over Kansas this morning has pushed east over Missouri as a warm front, bringing moist unstable air into the region. As such, temperatures today will climb into the upper 90s in Western Missouri, reaching the low 90s further east. With dewpoints behind the front in the low 70s, today will be hot and humid. Because of this, a Heat Advisory is in effect until 8 P.M.
for our western counties, generally west of the Highway 65 corridor, as heat indices will range between 100 and 108.
Thunderstorms are not expected today, as there will not be enough lift/forcing to reach our convective temperature thresholds.
Tonight, as the trough to our west continues to push east into the Great Plains region, the ridge over our area will flatten out, and flow over our area will become more westerly to west-southwesterly.
A northeast-southwest oriented cold front from central Kansas across northwest Missouri will begin to drop to the southeast.
Thunderstorms will develop on this boundary overnight. Most of the strongest storms should develop to the north of our CWA, where instability is higher. Storms which do move into our area are expected to be non-severe owing to the lower instability. However, precipitable water vapor is consistently above 2", making any storms which do reach us very efficient rain producers. Localized heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be the biggest hazards in our northern CWA, where precipitation chances are highest(40-65%).
Precipitation chances decrease further south. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s.
Moving into Wednesday afternoon, solar heating will bring increased instability. With the moisture here to stay and adequate energy from the upper-level pattern, scattered thunderstorms are possible (30-60% chance). The Storm Prediction Center has most of our CWA in a slight risk of severe storms (Level 2 of 5), with strong, damaging winds as the primary severe hazard.
Precipitable water vapor continues to be high (roughly 2")
during this time, so both localized heavy rainfall and flooding are threats. High temperatures on Wednesday are dependent on cloud cover and how much convection develops. A Heat Advisory has been issued for our southern tier of counties along the Arkansas border from 11 A.M to 8 P.M, as heat indices are expected to exceed 105 degrees. As confidence increases in temperature forecasts, the heat advisory may expand. Currently, highs in the mid 90s are expected for said southern counties in the heat advisory, while highs elsewhere range from the mid 80s to around 90.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Beginning Wednesday night into Thursday morning, an upper-level shortwave trough will move through the area. Thus, moving into Independence Day, we will be unable to declare independence from thunderstorm chances (30-70%). By the dawn's early light, thunderstorms across central Missouri will be producing locally heavy rainfall, so localized flooding is a threat. Thursday night into Friday morning, shear and instability are high enough to support severe weather. The SPC again has our entire CWA in a slight risk (Level 2 out of 5) for severe weather. Depending on cloud cover and the amount of convection, heat headlines will be possible again in our southern counties. Highs are currently set in the high 80s to low 90s for most of our area, with highs in the mid 90s by the Arkansas border.
Some showers may linger Friday morning, but Friday is expected to be dry otherwise, as an area of high pressure at the surface moves over our area. This will bring cooler and drier conditions to our area, as highs only reach into the 80s through Saturday. Precipitation chances return late Sunday night into Monday as an upper level trough moves over our area.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
For the 06z TAFS, while the bulk of the convection is remaining north of the area at the onset of the 06z TAFS, the front/outflow from the storms will be the focus for additional convection later today and this evening. Since location of redevelopment is still a bit uncertain, we will continue with prob30 groups in the TAFS with MVFR conditions within the convection. Brief periods of IFR will be possible if the stronger convection moves across the terminal sites.
CLIMATE
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024
Record High Temperatures:
July 2: KSGF: 100/1933 KJLN: 103/2011
July 3: KSGF: 98/2011 KJLN: 100/2011
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
July 2: KSGF: 76/1933
July 3: KSGF: 77/2018
July 4: KSGF: 78/1901
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ097-101>106.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1224 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Heat and humidity persist into Thursday with afternoon heat indices of 95 to 110. The highest heat indices and threat for heat related illnesses will be across southern Missouri.
- Multiple rounds of thunderstorms from late tonight through early Friday morning. There is a Slight Risk (2/5) for damaging winds from some of these storms on Wednesday and the Fourth of July.
- Repeated rounds of thunderstorms will also result in a Slight Risk (2/4) for flash flooding on Wednesday with a Marginal Risk (1/4) for Thursday.
- Slightly cooler temperatures and drier from Friday afternoon into Saturday.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Upper level analysis shows an upper level ridge over the eastern U.S, with its ridge axis extending from the Mississippi valley into the Ohio valley. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough situated over the Rockies is moving east into the Great Plains. Closer to the surface, a north-south stationary front over Kansas this morning has pushed east over Missouri as a warm front, bringing moist unstable air into the region. As such, temperatures today will climb into the upper 90s in Western Missouri, reaching the low 90s further east. With dewpoints behind the front in the low 70s, today will be hot and humid. Because of this, a Heat Advisory is in effect until 8 P.M.
for our western counties, generally west of the Highway 65 corridor, as heat indices will range between 100 and 108.
Thunderstorms are not expected today, as there will not be enough lift/forcing to reach our convective temperature thresholds.
Tonight, as the trough to our west continues to push east into the Great Plains region, the ridge over our area will flatten out, and flow over our area will become more westerly to west-southwesterly.
A northeast-southwest oriented cold front from central Kansas across northwest Missouri will begin to drop to the southeast.
Thunderstorms will develop on this boundary overnight. Most of the strongest storms should develop to the north of our CWA, where instability is higher. Storms which do move into our area are expected to be non-severe owing to the lower instability. However, precipitable water vapor is consistently above 2", making any storms which do reach us very efficient rain producers. Localized heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be the biggest hazards in our northern CWA, where precipitation chances are highest(40-65%).
Precipitation chances decrease further south. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 70s.
Moving into Wednesday afternoon, solar heating will bring increased instability. With the moisture here to stay and adequate energy from the upper-level pattern, scattered thunderstorms are possible (30-60% chance). The Storm Prediction Center has most of our CWA in a slight risk of severe storms (Level 2 of 5), with strong, damaging winds as the primary severe hazard.
Precipitable water vapor continues to be high (roughly 2")
during this time, so both localized heavy rainfall and flooding are threats. High temperatures on Wednesday are dependent on cloud cover and how much convection develops. A Heat Advisory has been issued for our southern tier of counties along the Arkansas border from 11 A.M to 8 P.M, as heat indices are expected to exceed 105 degrees. As confidence increases in temperature forecasts, the heat advisory may expand. Currently, highs in the mid 90s are expected for said southern counties in the heat advisory, while highs elsewhere range from the mid 80s to around 90.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Beginning Wednesday night into Thursday morning, an upper-level shortwave trough will move through the area. Thus, moving into Independence Day, we will be unable to declare independence from thunderstorm chances (30-70%). By the dawn's early light, thunderstorms across central Missouri will be producing locally heavy rainfall, so localized flooding is a threat. Thursday night into Friday morning, shear and instability are high enough to support severe weather. The SPC again has our entire CWA in a slight risk (Level 2 out of 5) for severe weather. Depending on cloud cover and the amount of convection, heat headlines will be possible again in our southern counties. Highs are currently set in the high 80s to low 90s for most of our area, with highs in the mid 90s by the Arkansas border.
Some showers may linger Friday morning, but Friday is expected to be dry otherwise, as an area of high pressure at the surface moves over our area. This will bring cooler and drier conditions to our area, as highs only reach into the 80s through Saturday. Precipitation chances return late Sunday night into Monday as an upper level trough moves over our area.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024
For the 06z TAFS, while the bulk of the convection is remaining north of the area at the onset of the 06z TAFS, the front/outflow from the storms will be the focus for additional convection later today and this evening. Since location of redevelopment is still a bit uncertain, we will continue with prob30 groups in the TAFS with MVFR conditions within the convection. Brief periods of IFR will be possible if the stronger convection moves across the terminal sites.
CLIMATE
Issued at 302 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024
Record High Temperatures:
July 2: KSGF: 100/1933 KJLN: 103/2011
July 3: KSGF: 98/2011 KJLN: 100/2011
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
July 2: KSGF: 76/1933
July 3: KSGF: 77/2018
July 4: KSGF: 78/1901
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
MO...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ097-101>106.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KSGF
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KSGF
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KSGF
Wind History graph: SGF
(wind in knots)
Springfield, MO,
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