SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper air analysis continues to show a rather complex pattern with upper level energy organizing just south of the area across Arkansas with several small pieces of energy rotating around it.
This upper energy was caught in between a ridge out west and another ridge across the southeast US. A combination of shortwave energy, a weak front nearby and low level moisture has allowed for a few showers and storms to develop east of Springfield. 12Z KSGF sounding still showed significant dry air above 600mb therefore storms have struggled to get tall enough to produce any downbursts or significant amounts of lightning however a few lightning strikes have been observed in Shannon and Oregon Counties where higher moisture resides.

This Afternoon through Tonight: With additional heating and incoming moisture, we should see a few more showers and storms develop through the afternoon. Chances remain less than 30 percent and mainly confined to areas along and east of Highway 65. While not particularly likely, if a storm can get tall enough then it could briefly produce downburst winds to 50mph, lightning and brief heavy rainfall. Storm motions will be slow and generally following a more uncommon east to west movement.
Outside of storms, it will be warm and humid with highs in the upper 80s. Storms should diminish with the loss of daytime heating this evening.

Saturday: Upper level energy across Arkansas will begin to lift north into the area during the day. An increase in moisture will also occur with PW values increasing to 1.5-1.7in. High res guidance is insistent in developing scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning as early as mid morning and continuing off and on during the day. Highest chances (near 60%) will be east of Highway 65. Significant amount of clouds/precip will limit instability therefore while a few thunderstorms will occur, we are not seeing a signal for pulse severe storms at this time. Given the higher PW's and slow storm motions, locally heavy rainfall will occur with the stronger cells and the latest HRRR data shows small pockets of up to 1 inch of rainfall in localized areas. However most areas will see less than 0.50 inch. Clouds/precip will likely keep temps much lower than normal with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Highest readings will occur west of Springfield where rain chances are less.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Sunday: The shortwave will begin its trek east on Sunday with precip chances east of Highway 65 during the afternoon. Areas west of Highway 65 will see more sunshine with highs climbing back towards 90.

Monday through Thursday: Ensembles continue to be in agreement that the mid level ridge out west will build into the central and southern plains next week. Mean 850mb temps look to climb into the 23-25C range which local climatology studies would suggest median high temps in the middle 90s with the 75th percentile of climatology closer to 100. While some areas are drying out, many still have green vegetation which should keep temps closer to those middle 90s. It should be noted that the deterministic NBM numbers are right around the 90th percentile therefore highs could be a few degrees cooler (especially west of Springfield, closer to the middle 90s). Dewpoints will be on the increase with readings in the lower to middle 70s returning. Latest ensemble probs continue to suggest a 50-70% chance of heat index values of 100 degrees or higher beginning Monday, lasting through at least Thursday with the highest chances west of Springfield. Heat Advisories could make a return next week if this trend continues.

One fly in the ointment is that since the ridge will not be directly overhead, we will still need to monitor for any systems that can slide close enough to the area from the northwest.
Ensemble cluster means are beginning to show some precip potential across northern, central and eastern Missouri therefore will need to monitor to see if any systems can creep into the area. This would have an impact on temps and excessive heat. However given the uncertainty, precip chances remain below 30 percent for next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 643 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

KSGF: A thunderstorm developed over the airport, with another stronger thunderstorm moving towards the airport from the east at the top of the TAF period. Prevailing winds are light, but gusts of 25-35kts can be expected as thunderstorms impact the airport and multiple outflow boundaries collide in the vicinity over the next hour or two. These storms are not particularly tall, so they are expected to fall apart after moving west of the TAF site. Overnight, ceilings will lower into the MVFR range before improving to VFR Saturday morning ahead of afternoon thunderstorms. Southeast winds prevail through the TAF period.

KJLN: JLN should avoid the bulk of the impactful activity in the Ozarks through the TAF period, with mid-level cloud decks, southeasterly winds, and VFR conditions prevailing.

KBBG: Complex forecast with many nuances over the next 24 hours.
Westward-moving storms to the east will likely fall apart before reaching the TAF site, but outflow from these storms could kick up gusty winds to 30kts as they impact the airport early in the TAF period. After storms dissipate, the overnight hours will have calm winds and decreasing cloud decks, with visibilities expected to reduce in the hours leading up to sunrise. The severity of the visibility reduction (and resulting flight category degradation) is still up in the air, but was included with consideration of the quarter-mile visibility observed on Friday morning within a persistence forecast context. After visibilities improve to VFR briefly in the late morning Saturday, thunderstorms with broad coverage will return and impact BBG on Saturday afternoon.



SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
MO...None.