Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Springfield, MO

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 128 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

An isolated elevated storm developed across east central Kansas late Tuesday evening and is slowly moving south/southeast early this morning across southeastern Kansas. A more stable airmass and a cap are in place south of the storm. Therefore, the storm is expected to weakening as it moves further to the south/southeast early this morning. Some weak uncapped MUCAPE will clip portions of central Missouri early this morning, (4-8am) some isolated showers and a storm or two will be possible in these locations. Coverage should be limited and most locations remaining dry.

A strong cap will develop over the area the rest of this morning through much of the afternoon hours with dry conditions expected during this timeframe. An area of surface low pressure will move across Minnesota and Iowa today resulting in the pressure gradient tightening across the area. As a result gusty south to southwesterly winds will develop early this morning and occur into this afternoon/early evening. Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph will occur at times. The strongest winds will generally occur along and northwest of I-44 today. Warm air advection will occur across the area today allowing highs in the upper 80s to the lower 90s this afternoon. Heat index values this afternoon will be in the lower 90s to around 100 degrees.

As the area of surface low pressure moves to the east today a cold front will move southeast across northern Missouri this afternoon then into central Missouri late this afternoon into early this evening and will continue to move south into the area into tonight. An upper level trough will also move east across Iowa today and off to the east tonight. With the better upper level support remaining to the north and northeast, the front will likely stall across southern Missouri tonight into Thursday before pushing south of the area by Thursday night.

As the upper level trough moves east across Iowa this afternoon the cap will start to weaken ahead of the front from north to south into the area this evening. Instability will increase with MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg across central Missouri gradually weakening to the south into southern Missouri. Deep layer shear will also increase to 50 to 60kt this evening and with the instability will support the potential for severe storms this evening, and possibility some strong storms into tonight. This is captured with the latest SPC Slight (2 of 5) to Enhanced (3 of 5) Severe Risk with the highest potential across central Missouri. Supercells are expected to develop along the front by late afternoon and slide through the area this evening into tonight generally pushing in the northern portions of the area afternoon 5PM. All severe weather hazards will be possible, including hail to the size of baseballs, damaging winds up to 70 to 80mph especially with any bowing segments, and a few tornadoes as low level shear also increases this evening, especially north of I-44 towards the Highway 54 corridor where the better instability and shear will be in place.

As the storms move south the front will start to stall, until a secondary front pushing south through the area Thursday morning, across southern Missouri late this evening into tonight, likely near Hwy 60. Low level shear is weaker further south, but uncapped instability will remain in place over night and storms could develop and move east along the front tonight.
An 850mb front will move south across the area Thursday afternoon and evening with scattered showers and storms lingering at times through Thursday evening. There will remain the potential for some strong to severe storms with large up to golf ball size and 60 mph wind gusts the main risk late tonight through Thursday mainly along and south of Highway 60. 0-3km bulk shear vectors will be from west to east, so there could be the potential for some localized training of storms where the front stalls. HRRR LPMM rainfall amounts show the potential for a localized band of 2-3" of rainfall tonight through Thursday.
This could lead to localized flooding where any training of storms can setup. Highs will be in the middle 70s to the lower 80s on Thursday with clouds and scattered rain occurring at times through the day.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 128 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Surface high pressure will move over the region on Friday with dry conditions expected. Highs are expected to warm into the lower 80s Friday afternoon.

A warm front will lift back northeast through the area on Saturday. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the warm front on Saturday. The ensemble model members then show a shortwave trough moving east through the region sometime as early as Saturday night and as late as later Sunday as timing differences remain between the models.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will be likely with the shortwave, and will likely linger into Monday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Isolated storms have developed across portions of southeastern Kansas to east central Kansas late this evening. These storms are slowly moving southeast, but instability weakens and a cap increase to the south so these storms should start to weaken as they move further southeast overnight and much if not all the area will likely remain dry. If any showers can maintain themselves long enough they could come close to the KJLN site during the early overnight hours, but confidence in this is low with the stronger cap currently in place over the area. This activity will remain well west of the KSGF and KBBG sites. It is possible some isolated showers and storms develop north of Highway 54 early Wednesday morning but will remain well north of the TAF sites.

South to southwesterly winds will occur tonight into Wednesday evening. Winds will gradually increase tonight and become gusty Wednesday morning into the early evening hours. A front will move south into the area tomorrow evening and night. Storms are expected to develop across central Missouri later tomorrow afternoon/early tomorrow evening ahead of the front and move south across the area. These storms could push into the KSGF and KJLN sites late in the TAF period. The front may stall over the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning with scattered storms continuing into Thursday at times after this TAF period.
Winds will shift to the north behind the storms.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
MO...None.