Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Springfield, MO

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 200 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: The upper level pattern was characterized by an elongated shortwave trough that stretched from the Great Lakes, back to the southwest through Iowa/Nebraska and Colorado. A classic "high over low" blocking pattern was occuring across the eastern Pacific. A narrow corridor of mid level moisture/clouds continues across southern Missouri however the weak lift from earlier has diminished with no additional snow being reported. A cold front has now moved south into central Arkansas as high pressure moves through Iowa.
This is allowing for colder temps to move into the northern half of the area under north winds. Early morning temps are in the teens north of Springfield to around freezing along the Missouri/Arkansas border.

Today through Thursday: Surface high pressure will gradually slide east into the Ohio valley today with winds gradually turning to the southeast through the morning and then to the southwest by evening. Soundings and high res guidance suggests an overall decrease in the clouds through the morning and afternoon. 850mb temps look to remain very close to yesterday's readings (-2 to -4C) therefore highs look to range from the middle/upper 30s north and east of Springfield to the lower 40s from Springfield and points south and west. Another day of melting snow is likely for those that still have a snow depth.

Winds look to largely remain westerly tonight with NBM data suggesting overnight lows in the middle to upper 20s across the area. Rising heights/thicknesses and 850mb temps climbing into the 0-4C range will allow for highs to warm a few more degrees on Thursday with most locations in the lower to upper 40s.
Locations from Joplin to Pineville will likely be pushing 50 degrees.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 200 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

Friday through Saturday: Ensemble guidance suggests that the "high over low" blocking pattern will break with the upper low ejecting out into the southwest US on Friday. Southerly low level winds will be increasing as low pressure develops across the Texas panhandle. Mean 850mb temps in the 6-8C range should allow for temps to climb well into the upper 40s to lower 50s per conditional climatology. This is supported as well by the latest NBM guidance. The limiting factor for even warmer temps will be increasing cloud cover through the day. Regardless, the warmest day since late December is looking likely across the area Friday.

Ensembles are decent agreement that increasing lift and an approaching cold front will allow for precip chances as early as late Friday afternoon however more likely Friday night across the eastern half of the area. Northerly winds across the Gulf of Mexico the preceding days may temper moisture return/quality until the system is just east of the area. Therefore rain chances increase east of Highway 65 and especially just east of the forecast area across southeast Missouri Friday night.
Latest NBM guidance has about a 20%-30% chance of greater than 0.25in of rainfall for areas along and east of Highway 65.
Therefore low qpf amounts are expected with this system.

The cold front currently looks to move through late Friday night into early Saturday morning with much colder air behind it. The bulk of the precip looks to be east of the area before the cold air arrives however there is currently a 20-30% chance of a few snow flurries or rain/snow mix for a very brief period early Saturday morning. No impacts are expected at this time.

Low level cold air advection will be strong on Saturday with 850mb temps dropping into the -8 to -12C range. This will likely knock high temps down into the 30s across the area. This will be the beginning/leading edge of the arctic blast coming into the region.

Sunday through early next week: An impressive amount of cold air is set to dive south into much of the US during this time period. Temperature forecasts in the 500mb,700mb,850mb layers across the northern plains could be well below average and near the 30 year reforecast minimums (per latest NAEFS, GEFS and ENS tables). Mean 850mb temps across our area on Sunday could be in the -16C to -20C range which is less than the 10th percentile and would result in highs in the teens or twenties. The coldest of the conditions appear to be on/around Monday as what could be a 1050mb+ surface high (also very strong compared to climatology) that looks to slide from Montana into the Dakotas and Nebraska. This could push high temps down further into the teens for Monday with lows in the single digits. The limiting factor for even colder temps will be the lack of a deep snow pack across the northern/central US. This will allow for some modification of the arctic air as it moves in. Regardless, confidence is high that this arctic blast will occur.

Impacts: With this being a arctic/dry airmass, precip chances look to remain less than 10 percent with no significant systems causing precip locally. The main concern will be the temps that will be 15-25 degrees below average. Wind chill values Sunday, Monday and Tuesday mornings could be below zero with air temps not warming above freezing. This extended period of excessive cold will be difficult on those with cold vulnerabilities, limited/no heating systems, etc. Proper precautions and preventative actions will need to be taken.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 503 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. A few mid level clouds will continue through this morning with clearing skies this afternoon. Winds will gradually shift from easterly to westerly by tonight. Low level wind shear is likely at the TAF sites early Thursday morning.



SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...None.
MO...None.