Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Springfield, MO

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Current radar imagery depicts a blanket of light to moderate rain across our entire area as broad and strong synoptic ascent overspreads the region due to positive vorticity advection ahead of an upper-level shortwave trough in across the central Plains, and strong and widespread warm air advection ahead of a quickly deepening surface low over the OK/TX panhandles. The quickly developing low is resulting in a strong mass response and tight surface pressure gradient, increasing winds to 10-20 mph, with some gusts up to 25-30 mph. This is aided by a roaring 50-60 kt low-level jet currently nosing into SW MO.

Widespread precipitation through this afternoon:

As the low translates northeastward through NE KS and NW MO, precipitation will continue to be widespread. For the most part, the vast majority of the area will see mainly light rain as temperatures hove in the 40s, though some pockets of moderate rain and even a thunderstorm or two are possible as HRRR mean brings in 100-200 J/kg MUCAPE to southern MO. The past few NBM/HRRR/REFS ensemble runs have been consistent in 0.25-0.75 inches of rain across much of the area, with the greater amounts east of Highway 65. Some localized areas may see up to 1-1.25 inches if the pockets of moderate rain/thunderstorms occur.

The rain is expected to end from west to east as the cold front moves through between 1 and 8 PM (i.e., ending by 1-3 PM along I-49 corridor, and ending around 6-8 PM along Hwy 63 corridor).
Cloud ice is expected to diminish ahead of the frontal passage which may result in some periods of drizzle this afternoon as low-level lift and saturation stays strong.

Brief period of snow east of Hwy 63 between 4 and 8 AM:

The main change to the forecast is that the NBM/HRRR/REFS ensembles have shown much better probabilities for snow to mix in across portions of Shannon, Dent, Phelps, and Maries counties between 4 and 8 AM this morning. This is largely due to low temperatures expected to briefly breach <32 F in this area before the low advects in warmer air today. During this brief period of snow, little to no accumulation is expected as temperatures will be right around 32 F, so the ground should be warm enough to melt any snow (and the fact that it will be raining before, potentially during, then after the 4-8 AM snow timeframe). The main low-potential impact would be some slushy roads early this morning within the previously mentioned counties.

Wind Advisory in effect until 3 PM this afternoon:

In addition to the cold and wet conditions, it will also be quite windy. The low-level jet moving overhead is expected to reach 60-70 kts in strength, which is >99.5th percentile for this time of year. In other words, it's a climatological anomalous low-level jet. During the morning hours, some of the jet energy may be mixed down to the surface, bringing the potential for a few gusts above 45 mph (NBM gives a 40-70% chance of at least one 45 mph gust today. CAMs are a bit more bullish with >70% probs between Springfield and Rolla). This is most likely to occur along the Ozark Plateau/I-44 corridor where terrain is closer to the low- level jet, making it easier for energy to mixdown. Therefore, a Wind Advisory is in place until 3 PM for the Ozark Plateau area. While in effect until 3 PM, the best chance for >45 mph wind gusts will be between 7 AM and 1 PM as the low-level jet translates west to east across the area during this timeframe.

Near single digit wind chills expected tonight into Sunday morning:

Following the frontal passage, lows tonight are expected to drop into the lower 20s. Along with 10-15 mph northwesterly winds with 20-25 mph gusts, wind chills may drop to the single digits late tonight into Sunday morning.

Another caveat to today's forecast is flash freeze potential.
Temperatures are expected to drop from the upper 30s to the middle 20s in 4-6 hours. If there is any lingering moisture on roads, this may result in a flash freeze. However, strong winds advecting in drier air will likely limit this threat. It is merely being mentioned for situational awareness.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Below normal temperatures with brisk wind chills Sunday/Monday:

Cold air and surface high pressure will settle into the area Sunday into Sunday night, bringing well below normal highs in the lower 30s and lows in the teens to lower 20s. Winds will diminish to 5-10 mph, but this will still be enough to bring wind chills down to the near single digits in some areas Monday and Tuesday morning.

35-60% chance of light snow Monday into Monday night:

The next system is progged to move through Monday through Monday night. Clusters are in pretty good agreement with energy moving through, though there are some minor timing differences. That said, precipitation chances are still medium to medium low at 35-60%. This is likely because of 1) Slight timing differences among models; 2) Limited moisture return as this weekends cold front locks moisture away in the Gulf and the positively-tilted nature of the trough will not result in strong mass response; and 3) Looking at deterministic global models, the Ozarks look to be in the transition zone of two phasing systems. What's meant by that is an upper-level shortwave trough is progged to drop down from the NW CONUS, which will force snow across KS/NE and north MO. At the same time, the right entrance region of a branch of the jet stream over the southern CONUS will force rain across the TexArkaNa Region. These two pieces of energy are progged to phase together just as the system moves through the Ozarks, putting us right in the transition zone where there could be little to light precipitation.

That being said, any precipitation that does occur will likely be snow (80-90% chance) as temperatures struggle to reach 32 F Monday. Due to the constraints mentioned above, snowfall looks to be mostly light, with NBM giving a 50-80% chance for less than 1 inch of snow accumulation.

Mentionable chance for some freezing rain in south-central MO:

With the Ozarks being somewhere in the transition zone between the phasing systems, along with high temperatures hovering around the 32 F mark, there is a signal presenting itself for freezing rain and/or sleet in areas of south-central MO. At the moment, confidence in this scenario is low, though SREF guidance suggesting a 50-70% conditional probability of freezing rain, along with NBM probs increasing, the scenario had enough evidence to keep in our forecast grids. We will continue to monitor trends, though a dive into the 00Z LREF soundings suggest that this is currently a low-end chance scenario with most members showing a deep enough cold layer for mainly snow/sleet rather than freezing rain.

Below normal temperatures and brisk wind chills to prevail:

After Monday's system, high temperatures are expected to oscillate between the 30s and 40s with low temperatures generally increasing from the teens to lower 20s Tuesday and Wednesday night, to the lower 30s Friday night. The oscillation in high temperatures is a result for continued ensemble signals for some shortwaves to move through the area, which could also bring some additional precipitation chances through next week.
However, model spreads increase drastically after Tuesday, leaving little to nothing meaningful to mention for precipitation chances through next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1139 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Ongoing rain showers and borderline MVFR-IFR ceilings will come to an end after the cold front associated with this system moves through. That will occur earliest at KJLN, with improvement to VFR conditions expected overnight tonight. At KSGF, MVFR ceilings should stick around through much or all of tonight before improving further Sunday morning. KBBG will see a rebound to VFR conditions overnight tonight.

Gusty winds will gradually weaken this afternoon into Sunday morning while becoming northwesterly behind the cold front.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for KSZ097-101.
MO...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MOZ058-070-071- 077-079>083-088>095-101>103.