Sunday, September19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Springfield, MO

Version 3.4
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3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 7:15PM Sunday September 19, 2021 8:28 AM CDT (13:28 UTC) Moonrise 6:03PMMoonset 4:22AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Springfield, MO
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location: 37.21, -93.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Springfield, MO
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FXUS63 KSGF 191134 AAA AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Springfield MO 634 AM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021

Key Messages: 1. Very warm temperatures Today and Tomorrow. 2. Rain and storms likely Monday night into Tuesday. 3. Big cool down mid week! Dry with Fall Like Temperatures!

SHORT TERM. (Today and tonight) Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021

While most of the area was clear, locations across south central Missouri were beginning to experience more cloud cover move in as the mid level disturbance across Arkansas was slowly drifting north into the area. Temperatures remained above average, generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Much like yesterday, isolated to scattered showers and storms will develop during the heat of the day and generally move west to northwest. Have used a consensus of short term models for precip probabilities today with highest chances east of Springfield. Most locations along and west of Highway 65 will remain dry. Abnormally dry soil conditions and ample sunshine across the western half of the area should allow temperatures to warm well into the 80s to around 90 again. We have gone with the 75th percentile of the National Blend of Models for highs today.

While the mid level disturbance will be pulling away from the area tonight, the low level winds will be increasing and there is the possibility for a few elevated showers or storms to remain across the far eastern ozarks overnight. Most locations will remain dry.

LONG TERM. (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021

A large upper level trough across the northwestern US will slide east into the northern Plains on Monday. A strong cold front will accompany this feature, stretching from Minnesota to Kansas to Texas by Monday afternoon. Several parameters appear to come together to support very warm temperatures for Monday: Abnormally dry soil conditions, mostly sunny skies, 850mb temps near 20C and increasing southerly winds. We have gone with the 75th percentile of the National Blend of Models for highs on Monday with upper 80s to lower 90s expected. This will generally be 10-15 degrees above average for this time of year.

Model consensus remains high that the cold front will approach the northwest portions of the area during the early evening hours. 0-6km bulk shear of 25-30kts and ample instability should allow for the development of showers and storms along the front as it moves into the area. It is a little too far out in time for the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast data to capture the event however later time ranges do support increasing probabilities for a couple of robust updrafts across southeast Kansas into west central Missouri Monday evening, before instability wanes with sunset. A few strong to severe storms will be possible and the SPC marginal severe risk area covers this well. We will likely see a forced line of showers and storms move through the entire area through the overnight hours. The front will likely be through the area by Tuesday morning however some scattered post frontal showers will be possible Tuesday, mainly south of Interstate 44 before the upper trough pulls out.

Precip amounts with this system do not look overly impressive with GFS and ECMWF ensembles showing very low probabilities for rainfall over 1 inch. Most locations will likely experience a quarter to locally three quarters of an inch of rainfall. This will still be welcome given the dry conditions.

The main story with this frontal passage will be the change in airmass/temperatures. This system looks to force the cold front all the way into the Gulf of Mexico. High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will likely be in the 70s, which is something we have not experienced in a little while. The dry airmass will allow for very cool overnight lows as well, with high confidence that locations will dip into the 40s for Wednesday and especially Thursday mornings. Would not be surprised to see lows around 40 in the eastern Ozarks Thursday morning.

Inspection of the WPC cluster analysis and model ensembles show that the region will likely remain in a northwest flow pattern through the end of the week. This will lead to dry conditions and and slowly moderating temperatures by the end of the week.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 631 AM CDT Sun Sep 19 2021

IFR conditions with stratus and patchy fog at SGF and BBG will last for the first few hours of the TAF period before becoming MVFR and eventually VFR. Conditions should remain VFR at JLN. Winds will remain light out of the southeast, becoming more southerly tonight into Monday. Can not rule out a shower or storm at BBG this afternoon however the chance is far too low to include at this time.

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MO . NONE. KS . NONE.

SHORT TERM . Burchfield LONG TERM . Burchfield AVIATION . Burchfield


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Springfield, Springfield Regional Airport, MO5 mi37 minESE 49.00 miMostly Cloudy69°F68°F96%1016.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSGF

Wind History from SGF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4N6E9NE10E10NE12
G23
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NE12E11E11E8E5E7E7SE8SE9SE6SE6E3SE3CalmSE6SE5E4
1 day agoSE63Calm3N55
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N8NE10N11NE6N6N4NE3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3
2 days agoSE11SE10SE6S7SE6E8E7S8SE11SE8E9E9SE7SE4SE5SE8SE7SE7SE5SE5SE6CalmSE4SE4

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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