Sunday, August9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cheriton, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:15AMSunset 8:03PM Sunday August 9, 2020 4:59 PM EDT (20:59 UTC) Moonrise 10:25PMMoonset 10:45AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ654 Coastal Waters From Parramore Island To Cape Charles Light Va Out 20 Nm- 403 Pm Edt Sun Aug 9 2020
Through 7 pm..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 403 Pm Edt Sun Aug 9 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A weak front will continue to lose definition over the region today and completely dissipate by Monday. High pressure settles over the area through mid week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cheriton, VA
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location: 37.22, -75.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 091959 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 359 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak surface boundary lingering just south of the forecast area this afternoon will provide the chance for a few showers/storms through early evening before becoming diffuse tonight. High pressure settles over the area tonight. A trough forms to our west by the middle part of this week with scattered diurnal thunderstorms become more prevalent in the later part of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/. As of 340 PM EDT Sunday .

Latest analysis shows a stalled rather weak frontal boundary aligned W to E over NC (south of the CWA). The boundary is less pronounced than yesterday and with a minimal pressure gradient over the region, there will be less of a trigger for showers/tstms later today. Showers/storms have formed in the western piedmont as well as SE VA/NE NC. Will have PoPs of 30-50% over the SE and S piedmont, with only 15-25% chances elsewhere. The steering flow will remain light today but precipitable water values are lower than yesterday (generally ~1.50 to 1.75" over the SE, and 1.00 to 1.50" farther to the N and W. Will still have the potential for localized flooding especially in urban and poor drainage areas, but the threat is lower than yesterday. Temps are generally in the upper 80s to around 90F well inland. Any convection should diminish rather quickly this evening, with partly cloudy skies overnight. Patchy fog and low stratus will again be possible after 06Z tonight into tomorrow morning but with less coverage than what was seen this morning. Lows tonight in the upper 60s NW to the lower 70s SE.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 340 PM EDT Sunday .

Highs in the low 90s Monday. There is only a slight chance of storms generally in SE VA/NE NC, but most will remain dry (generally 15-30% PoPs). Lows Monday night will range from the upper 60s NW to the low 70s SE.

Tuesday will be more of the same with highs in the low 90s. A shortwave moves south of the region, increasing PoPs to 35-50% in the afternoon (mainly for SE VA/NE NC). Any convection should end by early evening. Lows Tuesday night will be in the upper 60s NW and in the low 70s elsewhere.

A weak shortwave passes to the north on Wednesday. Diurnal showers/storms will again be possible Wednesday afternoon/early evening (30-40% PoPs). Highs in the low 90s and lows generally in the low 70s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 340 PM EDT Sunday .

The medium range period begins Wed night with a typical upper level ridge centered well off the SE coast and an upper trough to the E of Hudson Bay Canada. The models differ with respect to how progressive that upper trough is while moving to the SE Thu-Sat. The 12Z/09 GFS is quite a bit more progressive with the upper trough pushing off to Atlantic Canada Fri and then well offshore on Sat. This keeps the upper ridge along the Carolina/SE coast and would make it difficult for a front to sag S into the local area through the weekend. The ECMWF and GEM show more of a potential for a blocking pattern and a sfc front stalling over the local area Fri-Sat and possibly even into Sunday. Will be following a blended solution at this point which will incorporate an unsettled pattern with above climo PoPs through the period, but not to the extent of the operational ECMWF/GEM just yet. Highs Thu will be in the upper 80s/around 90F with increasing PoPs by aftn as the front slowly approaches from the N. Beyond that, with the increasing uncertainty as to how far S the front gets, have a fairly broad- brushed high chance PoP (~50%) Fri-Sun with some low end likely PoPs Fri W of I-95. Highs Fri-Sun will be mainly in the mid to upper 80s with lows primarily between 70-75F with some upper 60s possible in the Piedmont through the period. If the ECMWF/GEM solutions verify, highs will likely be a bit cooler especially over the N.

AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 205 PM EDT Sunday .

Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail this afternoon and early evening. Widely scattered convection will increase in coverage this afternoon and early evening, which may result in brief flight restrictions. The greatest chance for showers/storms will be at ECG/PHF with a lower chance elsewhere. Will only mention in TAF for these two terminals at this time due to lower confidence in coverage elsewhere. Lower ceilings/visbys due to scattered areas of fog will be possible again late tonight into Monday morning (beginning around 06Z Monday), however coverage shouldn't be as widespread as it was today. Flight restrictions will be possible for any areas with fog. Outside of convection, winds are NE 5-10 KT at PHF/ORF and light and variable elsewhere. Winds will remain primarily light and variable through the 18Z TAF.

Outlook . Mostly VFR conditions expected through mid week outside of scattered afternoon/evening storms which could result in brief flight restrictions.

MARINE. As of 320 PM EDT Sunday .

Broad surface high pressure remains in control of the eastern CONUS weather. Winds are easterly across the southern half of the area waters with some S and SE winds north of Cape Charles. ESE winds of 10-15 knots are noted across the southern Ches Bay and lower James River. Will show elevated winds 10-15 knots across the western Ches Bay and rivers into this evening before decreasing back into the 5- 10 knot range tonight. Similar conditions are expected through mid week with SE flow increasing modestly by late morning into the evening hours. Waves/seas average 1 foot and 2 ft, respectively.

Uncertainty increases later in the week with the potential for more organized low pressure to affect the region with associated increases in winds/waves/seas.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . RMM NEAR TERM . RMM SHORT TERM . CMF/RMM LONG TERM . LKB AVIATION . RMM MARINE . RHR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 11 mi66 min S 11 G 12 82°F
CHBV2 20 mi66 min SE 8.9 G 12 80°F 1018.4 hPa
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 22 mi154 min 79°F1 ft
44087 23 mi34 min 83°F1 ft
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 23 mi66 min ESE 9.9 G 12 79°F 1019.7 hPa
44072 25 mi50 min SSW 12 G 16 80°F
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 25 mi66 min SSE 8 G 11 1019.7 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 27 mi66 min S 8 G 8.9 79°F 86°F1019.3 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 29 mi66 min SSE 14 G 15 80°F 1019.8 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 32 mi66 min E 14 G 16 80°F 1018.2 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 34 mi42 min S 12 G 12 83°F 85°F1021.8 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 34 mi66 min 81°F1018.8 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 36 mi66 min ESE 11 G 13 83°F 83°F1018.8 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 37 mi66 min SSW 5.1 G 8 86°F 1018.7 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 38 mi66 min ENE 11 G 16 82°F 1019.2 hPa
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 41 mi66 min SSE 6 G 9.9 85°F 83°F1018.7 hPa
44089 45 mi64 min 75°F1 ft

Wind History for Kiptopeke, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Virginia Beach, Oceana, Naval Air Station, VA30 mi64 minESE 1110.00 miA Few Clouds85°F72°F65%1019.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNTU

Wind History from NTU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4E5CalmE3CalmSE4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E8E6E8E8E8E11
1 day agoSE11CalmS4CalmS5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmSW4CalmCalmS7W5SW3CalmCalmE12E8E8E6
2 days agoSE3N6E16
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Tide / Current Tables for Ship Shoal Inlet, Virginia
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Ship Shoal Inlet
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Sun -- 12:40 AM EDT     3.99 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:30 AM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:12 PM EDT     3.92 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:58 PM EDT     0.96 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.943.52.71.70.90.50.50.91.72.63.23.73.93.83.12.31.61.111.21.72.43

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current
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Chesapeake Bay Entrance
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Sun -- 12:42 AM EDT     0.69 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:30 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:10 AM EDT     -1.07 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 10:43 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:11 PM EDT     0.59 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:11 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:47 PM EDT     -0.81 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:02 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.70.50.2-0.2-0.6-0.9-1.1-1-0.7-0.30.10.40.60.50.30.1-0.3-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.7-0.4-0

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.