Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cheriton, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 4:50PM Sunday December 15, 2019 2:14 PM EST (19:14 UTC) Moonrise 8:26PMMoonset 10:13AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ654 Coastal Waters From Parramore Island To Cape Charles Light Va Out 20 Nm- 106 Pm Est Sun Dec 15 2019
This afternoon..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds late.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt late in the evening, then becoming ne 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Mon..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S in the late morning and afternoon. Seas around 2 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A chance of rain after midnight.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming W late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Rain.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the late evening and overnight. Seas 5 to 6 ft. A chance of rain in the evening.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
Thu..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ600 106 Pm Est Sun Dec 15 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure builds in from the west today. Low pressure approaches from the west Monday, with a backdoor cold front dropping into the area from the north. A stronger cold front crosses the coast late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cheriton, VA
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location: 37.22, -75.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 151813 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 113 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure rebuilds over the local area through today before the next system impacts the region Monday and Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 330 AM EST Sunday..

Weak high pressure builds across the southeastern United States today, with downslope flow aloft allowing for mostly sunny and dry conditions w/high temperatures in the 50s. Surface high pressure traverses the local area Sunday night, then moves well offshore on Monday. Lows tonight are expected to drop into generally the low to mid 30s, minus the SE where temps will be in the 40s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. As of 330 AM EST Sunday .

The forecast becomes a little more complex for Monday as the cold front enters the region and then hangs up across the area as a stationary front. Biggest question will be where exactly this boundary decides to hang up, which will have large impacts on both temperatures and precip Monday into Tuesday. For now, have sided most with the 00z ECMWF which has the boundary sagging south to around the Tri-Cities region Monday evening before slowly lifting back to the north Monday night and Tuesday, making it close to the northern CWA border. 00z GFS seems a little too ambitious, lifting the boundary well north of the area by Tuesday, while the 00z NAM has the boundary dipping close to the VA/NC border. Temperatures will vary widely from north to south during the day Monday, with temperatures across the NW only reaching the lower 40s, while temperatures across the SE likely climb into the lower to mid 60s. Precipitation-wise, the highest chances will be along and north of the boundary (highest across the northern 2/3rds of the area) during the day Monday. Precipitation may start off as a mix of rain and snow across far northern locations of the VA Piedmont and MD Eastern Shore, right now am not expecting much in the way of any accumulation, but this will have to be monitored closely through future shifts. Any wintry precip turns to rain by mid-morning Monday.

On Monday night, the boundary will make a slow progression back to the north as a warm front as low pressure moves NE from the Tennessee Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. Thus, temperatures Monday night likely stay steady or climb. Generally have lows ranging from around 40 across the NW to the mid/upper 50s across the south. Rain chances increase from the west through the night as the associated cold front approaches the area. The cold front then crosses the area during the day Tuesday and exits off the coast during the evening/overnight hours. Likely PoPs will move from W to E ahead of the front, coming to an end Tuesday evening/overnight. This system produces more beneficial rainfall with QPF generally in the 0.50" to 1" range. Similar to Monday, temperatures will vary from N to S across the area on Tuesday and will be highly dependent on how far north the warm frontal boundary reaches Tuesday. Right now, have highs ranging from the mid to upper 50s north to near 70 across the far S. Higher uncertainty remains in the temp forecast across the northern half of the region.

Conditions improve Tuesday night with drying behind the frontal passage and high pressure building back into the region. Expect clearing from NW to SE through the night with lows dipping into the upper 20s NW to around 40 across the SE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 400 PM EST Saturday .

Cold front will be moving offshore Tuesday night with drying conditions and falling temperatures behind the front. Wednesday morning low temperatures will drop to the upper 20s west of I-95 and upper 30s along the coast. An upper level low pressure will track southeast out of Canada and across the Northeast US Wednesday. This will bring a reinforcing shot of colder air into the region. High temperatures Wednesday will range from near 40 across central VA and MD Eastern Shore to mid 40s across Hampton Roads and northeast NC. Low temperatures Thursday morning will be in the low 20s (upper 20s at the VA/NC beaches).

A cold high pressure system will settle across the region Thursday with high temperatures ranging from mid 30s north to mid 40 south. Friday will remain dry as well with slightly warmer temperatures as the sfc high pressure over the area begins to weaken, with high temperatures in the mid to upper 40s and low temperatures in the mid-upper 20s.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 115 PM EST Sunday .

VFR conditions are expected through the majority of the 18z TAF period. RIC and SBY have a chance at briefly reaching MVFR conditions after 15z Monday due to cloud bases around 2500 feet. W winds 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt will weaken and become light and variable at around 3 kt overnight. Higher clouds will increase by Monday morning and continue through the TAF period.

OUTLOOK . SBY has the potential to see light showers and MVFR conditions Monday night but otherwise VFR conditions expected with overcast skies. Tuesday has the potential for degraded flight conditions due to low clouds and rain across all airports ahead of a cold front which passes through the region Tuesday evening. High pressure builds Wednesday with VFR conditions returning.

MARINE. As of 700 AM EST Sunday .

Strong low pressure is centered over srn QB early this morning, with high pressure extending from the mid-Mississippi Valley through the Southeast. This pressure gradient is resulting in a W wind of 15-20kt for much of the area, with 15kt or less for the Rappahannock/York/upper James. Seas are subsiding now that the wind is offshore, and range from 4-5ft S to 5-6ft N, with 2-3ft waves in the Bay. The wind should remain W 15-20kt through midday, and then diminish this aftn as high pressure builds in from the W. Seas will continue to subside as well. SCA flags have been lowered for the Sound, Lower James, and coastal Atlantic S of Cape Charles as wind and/or seas have dropped below criteria. SCAs for the Bay continue through 1 pm, ocean from Cape Charles to Parramore Is. through 1 pm, and the ocean N of Parramore Is. through 7 pm.

High pressure slides off the Southeast coast tonight with a backdoor cold front dropping in from the N. This front settles over the area Monday as low pressure approaches from the WSW. There is considerable spread amongst the model guidance with respect to how far S the boundary pushes, and then retreats to the N Monday night into Tuesday. In general, an ENE wind of 5-10kt is expected N of the boundary, with a 10-15kt SSW wind S of the boundary. Seas should be 2-3ft while the boundary is over the area, with 1-2ft waves in the Bay. By Tuesday aftn, a SW wind could increase to 15-20kt for the lower Bay and ocean, which would allow for 3-4ft seas and 2-3ft waves in the lower Bay. A cold front is expected to cross the coast Tuesday evening, with modest CAA occurring by Tuesday night with a NNW wind increasing to 20-25kt. A secondary cold front and another round of CAA are expected by Wednesday night a NNW wind again increasing to 20-25kt. SCAs are likely Tuesday night through early Thursday, with perhaps a lull during the day Wednesday. High pressure returns Thursday into Friday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634-654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ650- 652.

SYNOPSIS . AJB NEAR TERM . AJB SHORT TERM . AJB LONG TERM . CP AVIATION . RMM MARINE . AJZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 11 mi69 min W 8.9 G 11 48°F
CHBV2 20 mi69 min WSW 12 G 13 52°F 1014.8 hPa
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 22 mi45 min 51°F3 ft
44064 22 mi45 min W 12 G 14 52°F 1016.1 hPa
44087 23 mi45 min 48°F1 ft
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 23 mi57 min W 14 G 18 54°F 1016.3 hPa
44072 25 mi55 min NNW 12 G 16 52°F
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 25 mi57 min WSW 7 G 8 1016.6 hPa
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 27 mi57 min WNW 2.9 G 13 56°F 49°F1015.1 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 29 mi57 min W 16 G 18 53°F 1016.2 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 32 mi69 min WSW 14 G 17 52°F 1015.4 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 34 mi39 min W 14 G 14 48°F1018.5 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 34 mi69 min 49°F1016 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 36 mi57 min WSW 13 G 21 54°F 49°F1015.5 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 37 mi57 min WSW 12 G 17 55°F 1016.1 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 38 mi69 min W 15 G 17 53°F 1016.3 hPa
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 41 mi69 min W 13 G 17 55°F 51°F1016.2 hPa
44089 45 mi75 min 50°F4 ft

Wind History for Kiptopeke, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Virginia Beach, Oceana, Naval Air Station, VA30 mi79 minW 1410.00 miFair56°F34°F44%1016.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNTU

Wind History from NTU (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN11N9N9N9N45N4CalmW3CalmNW4CalmCalmNW4CalmCalmS4S7SW14
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2 days agoNE7NE8NE5N8NE6N6N6E9E8E8E9E10E12E9E11E8E8E7E6E7E8E4NE6N6

Tide / Current Tables for Ship Shoal Inlet, Virginia
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Ship Shoal Inlet
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Sun -- 03:46 AM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:00 AM EST     4.63 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:12 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:35 PM EST     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:25 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:50 PM EST     3.75 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.71.60.70-0.10.31.42.63.74.44.64.43.62.51.30.4-0.2-0.30.31.22.33.13.63.7

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current
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Chesapeake Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:34 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:09 AM EST     -1.40 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:15 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:56 AM EST     1.15 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 10:13 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:32 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:01 PM EST     -1.33 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 08:18 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:27 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:34 PM EST     0.74 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.2-0.2-0.7-1.2-1.4-1.3-0.8-0.20.511.110.60.2-0.2-0.7-1.2-1.3-1.2-0.8-0.20.40.70.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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