Thursday, October22, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Matoaca, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 6:24PM Thursday October 22, 2020 10:16 PM EDT (02:16 UTC) Moonrise 12:53PMMoonset 10:34PM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ637 James River From Jamestown To The James River Bridge- 934 Pm Edt Thu Oct 22 2020
Overnight..E winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. Patchy fog with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..E winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. Patchy fog early in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..SE winds 5 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves 1 foot. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..N winds 5 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sun night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Mon..NW winds 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Mon night..S winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 934 Pm Edt Thu Oct 22 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A ridge of high pressure will remain over the area through Friday. A cold front will cross the area late Saturday into Saturday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Matoaca, VA
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location: 37.22, -77.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 230138 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 938 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure remains over the area through early Saturday. A cold front crosses the area Saturday into Saturday night. Canadian high pressure builds across the local area Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. As of 725 PM EDT Thursday .

Latest analysis continues to show high pressure over the local area, with a stationary front to our north from New England stretching back through the OH valley to low pressure currently centered over the NE/IA line. Warm conditions continue into this evening with some clouds arriving from the south. Still expecting areas of fog to develop overnight but there are mixed signals in the guidance with respect to whether it will be as dense as the last few nights. A mix of fog and low stratus seems the most likely scenario. Low temps generally in the mid to upper 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. As of 330 PM EDT Thursday .

High pressure remains in control on Friday. Any fog that develops early Friday morning should burn off by around 15Z, with partly sunny conditions expected for late morning through the afternoon. High temps in the mid to upper 70s. Low temps Friday night in the upper 50s, with some patchy fog possible overnight into early Saturday morning.

Low pressure currently over the middle of the country will move across the great lakes on Friday and northeast through eastern Canada by early Saturday morning. This system will drag a cold front across the eastern US, with it crossing locally Saturday into late Saturday night. Precip should hold off until after 18Z Saturday with scattered showers and possible thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. Overall precip amounts should be light, generally under a quarter inch, although could be locally higher in thunderstorms. High temps on Saturday in the mid to upper 70s, and low temps Saturday night in the upper 40s N to near 60 SE.

High pressure builds in from eastern Canada on Sunday. A moist LL NE flow will provide for a cooler and mostly overcast day, with light rain and patchy drizzle possible. Went on the cool end of guidance for high temps with lower 50s NW to mid and upper 60s SE. Temps won't budge much Sunday night with lows around 50 NW to lower 60s SE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 355 PM EDT Thursday .

Going closer to the 12Z GFS for the extended period. Temps will be at or slightly above normal through the period. Except for a slight chance of showers, mainly a dry fcst expected Mon into Wed, as a cold front slowly approaches from the WNW. Have at least small chance PoPs moving into the region Wed night through Thu, as the frontal boundary starts to drop into the area.

Highs in the lower to mid 70s Mon, ranging through the 70s Tue, in the lower to mid 70s Wed, and in the mid 60s to lower 70s Thu. Lows in the 50s to lower 60s Sun night, in the upper 50s to lower 60s Mon night and Tue night, and in the mid 50s to lower 60s Wed night.

AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 725 PM EDT Thursday .

VFR conditions in place early this evening with onshore winds becoming light and variable as the boundary layer decouples. Areas of fog and low stratus are expected again tonight with mixed signals with respect to which will dominate. Will lean a towards less widespread dense fog tonight but regardless expect periods of IFR/LIFR at all sites through the overnight. For now, have the LIFR CIGs/VSBYs at RIC, SBY, and PHF with IFR conditions at ORF and ECG. Expect reductions to persist until 13-15Z before fog/stratus mix out. Thereafter, VFR will prevail at all terminals through the remainder of the period. Outlook . Patchy fog is possible again Saturday morning. A cold front crosses the area Saturday into late Saturday night. Scattered showers and possible thunderstorms may result in brief flight restrictions. High pressure to our north builds in for Sunday, resulting in a cool air wedge setup, with sub-VFR ceilings likely.

MARINE. As of 940 PM EDT Thursday .

SCAs continue through Saturday for 5 to 7 ft seas over the open ocean zones and 3-4 ft at the mouth of Chesapeake Bay. Both SCAs will likely need to be extended through Saturday evening and possibly through Sunday for the coastal waters, but will defer to future model guidance over the next day or so before extending.

Hurricane Epsilon remains well offshore and will continue to move N/NNW before curving NE further out to sea Friday night. The only impacts for the local area will be increased seas and long period swell through the weekend.

Winds remain light (generally E around 5 kt in the Ches Bay and E/ENE 5 to 10 kt over the coastal waters through Friday) due to high pressure over the region which will remain in place through early Saturday. A cold front drops south through the region late Saturday into Saturday night, resulting in a wind shift to N/NNE Saturday night through Sunday. SCAs might be needed for the FROPA in the bay, but it will likely be a marginal situation.

The models try to develop a weak area of low pressure well to the SE of the local waters Monday, but it is expected to move further offshore with very minimal (if any) impacts for the local waters. Generally quiet marine weather prevails through next week before another cold front cross the local waters late Thursday or Thursday night. Models try to develop a low along this front that will track inland. Considerable uncertainty exists with this feature with the GFS taking the low through the local area and over the Ches Bay Thursday night, the CMC taking the low west of the mountains, and the EURO not developing a low until Friday. Have leaned towards the GFS and CMC faster solution with a period of SCAs likely with any low tracking near the local area.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ634-650- 652-654-656-658.

SYNOPSIS . CMF NEAR TERM . CMF/RHR SHORT TERM . CMF LONG TERM . TMG AVIATION . CMF/RHR MARINE . MAM/RMM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 45 mi47 min WSW 1 64°F 1024 hPa63°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 56 mi47 min Calm G 1 67°F 69°F1022.9 hPa

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Petersburg, Dinwiddie County Airport, VA2 mi22 minN 07.00 miFair60°F58°F94%1023.4 hPa
Richmond, Richmond International Airport, VA23 mi23 minSE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy65°F63°F93%1023.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPTB

Wind History from PTB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmW4SE5CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmSW4W3S3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Petersburg, Appomattox River, James River, Virginia
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Petersburg
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Thu -- 04:17 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:10 AM EDT     2.99 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:13 PM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:26 PM EDT     3.36 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.40.90.50.20.31.122.732.92.41.91.30.80.50.30.41.12.22.93.33.33

Tide / Current Tables for Chester, James River, Virginia
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Chester
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:18 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:23 AM EDT     2.91 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:14 PM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:39 PM EDT     3.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.40.90.40.10.311.92.52.92.82.41.91.30.80.40.20.3122.83.23.23

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.