Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Roanoke, VA
November 28, 2023 5:17 PM EST (22:17 UTC)
Sunrise 7:10AM Sunset 5:04PM Moonrise 5:56PM Moonset 8:41AM
Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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FXUS61 KRNK 281944 AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 244 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will cover the area tonight through Thursday, with below normal temperatures through at least Wednesday. A low pressure system over the central United States arrives by Friday and will result in widespread rain for our area. The chance of precipitation continues into the beginning on next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 130 PM EST Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Wind Advisory has expired
- Below normal temperatures tonight and Wednesday
Subsidence was impacting the area behind the short wave that was crossing through the Ohio Valley. Drying evident in the drop in surface dew points and relative humidity and the eroding cloud cover and snow showers.
Surface high pressure builds in tonight and will be centered over the Carolinas by Wednesday morning. Wind speeds will continue to slacken and with a clear sky, the wind will decouple, allowing for a sharper drop in temperatures. Models show some mid and high level wave clouds east of the Blue Ridge at times overnight. Still, enough potential for radiational cooling that I will be leaning at or below the colder guidance for overnight lows.
Starting out cold will impact the highs on Wednesday and keep them below normal, even though with the dry air mass a 30 degree daytime temperature rise with full sun is reasonable.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 230 PM EST Tuesday...
Key Messages:
1. Dry weather through Thursday.
2. Moisture increases Friday with opportunity for measurable rain.
3. Temperatures moderating.
High confidence for dry weather persisting through Thursday as remnant dry airmass lingers over area...high pressure passing off the Southeast coast into the Atlantic. Winds will become more southerly with gradual increase in upper level moisture, so do expect some increase in cirrus Thursday afternoon.
Upper level flow is zonal during this period with embedded short waves looking rather weak as fast flow promotes little in the way of organization or phasing. A short which moves out of the Southwest CONUS Thursday has best look in terms of dynamics with positive vorticity advection promoting lift from Mid-MS valley into the Ohio Valley. Southwest winds develop ahead of this feature with fetch of Gulf moisture moving north into the MS/TN/OH valleys by Thursday afternoon, then across the Mid-Atlantic Friday. Wave gets pinched as it crosses the mountains, so not expecting a lot of QPF. Locally expecting a quarter inch or less, favoring a high POP low QPF scenario. Looking at the model soundings, can't rule out some sleet at the onset prior to daybreak Friday, but no impacts expected as 85h Temps warm quickly ahead of the system. 85H winds are progged at close to 50 kts, so may experience some robust wind gusts at our highest elevations Friday.
By Friday night, best isentropic lift forecast well north of the forecast area from Ohio Valley into parts of New England. Best instability passes well south of the region across the Gulf Coast.
This suggest best chance for rain as we transition into the weekend will be either well north or well south of the local area.
Temperatures for the most part will return to normal with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 230 PM EST Tuesday...
Key Messages:
1. Unsettled weather.
2. Temperature above normal Saturday through Monday.
High confidence for mild temperatures, high humidity, and considerable cloud cover. Low confidence with respect to rain amounts.
Models look quite noisy with respect to embedded short wave energy and potential for rain Saturday through Monday. Ensembles suggest upwards of a half inch to an inch of rain during the period, but I just do not see the phasing needed to produce anything organized.
All of the short waves forecast are positively tilted which suggests QPF potential would be limited to bands of showers, as opposed to widespread overrunning. Until things come into better focus, will advertise chance threat for showers during the long term, reflecting lower confidence forecast with respect to measurable rain at any given time. Temperatures through Monday are forecast above normal with highs in the 50s to near 60 and lows of 35 to 45. After Monday, a bonafide push of colder air arrives for mid week...temperatures trending cooler.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 145 PM EST Tuesday...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF forecast period.
Subsidence was impacting the area behind the short wave that was crossing through the Ohio Valley. Drying evident in the drop in surface dew points and relative humidity and the eroding cloud cover and snow showers. Wind gusts will be from the northwest at 20 to 35 knots through 23Z/6PM.
Surface high pressure builds in tonight and will be centered over the Carolinas by Wednesday morning. Wind speeds will continue to slacken and with a clear sky, the wind will decouple, allowing for a sharper drop in temperatures. Models show some VFR mid and high level wave clouds east of the Blue Ridge at times overnight.
Average confidence on ceiling, visibility, and wind.
Extended Aviation Discussion...
Dry weather and improved flying conditions are expected Wednesday night through Thursday.
The next weather system chance of rain approaches Friday with sub-VFR likely, likely continuing through Sunday.
CLIMATE
As of 210 PM EST Tuesday...
A few low temperature records are in jeopardy of being broken or tied Wednesday morning.
Record lows for November 28:
Bluefield.....3 in 1930 Danville.....15 in 1938 Lynchburg....16 in 1932 Roanoke......14 in 1932 Blacksburg....8 in 1903
Record lows for November 29:
Bluefield.....3 in 1930 Forecast:12 Danville.....15 in 1938 Forecast:15 Lynchburg....16 in 1932 Forecast:16 Roanoke......14 in 1932 Forecast:18 Blacksburg....8 in 1903 Forecast:16
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 244 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will cover the area tonight through Thursday, with below normal temperatures through at least Wednesday. A low pressure system over the central United States arrives by Friday and will result in widespread rain for our area. The chance of precipitation continues into the beginning on next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 130 PM EST Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Wind Advisory has expired
- Below normal temperatures tonight and Wednesday
Subsidence was impacting the area behind the short wave that was crossing through the Ohio Valley. Drying evident in the drop in surface dew points and relative humidity and the eroding cloud cover and snow showers.
Surface high pressure builds in tonight and will be centered over the Carolinas by Wednesday morning. Wind speeds will continue to slacken and with a clear sky, the wind will decouple, allowing for a sharper drop in temperatures. Models show some mid and high level wave clouds east of the Blue Ridge at times overnight. Still, enough potential for radiational cooling that I will be leaning at or below the colder guidance for overnight lows.
Starting out cold will impact the highs on Wednesday and keep them below normal, even though with the dry air mass a 30 degree daytime temperature rise with full sun is reasonable.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 230 PM EST Tuesday...
Key Messages:
1. Dry weather through Thursday.
2. Moisture increases Friday with opportunity for measurable rain.
3. Temperatures moderating.
High confidence for dry weather persisting through Thursday as remnant dry airmass lingers over area...high pressure passing off the Southeast coast into the Atlantic. Winds will become more southerly with gradual increase in upper level moisture, so do expect some increase in cirrus Thursday afternoon.
Upper level flow is zonal during this period with embedded short waves looking rather weak as fast flow promotes little in the way of organization or phasing. A short which moves out of the Southwest CONUS Thursday has best look in terms of dynamics with positive vorticity advection promoting lift from Mid-MS valley into the Ohio Valley. Southwest winds develop ahead of this feature with fetch of Gulf moisture moving north into the MS/TN/OH valleys by Thursday afternoon, then across the Mid-Atlantic Friday. Wave gets pinched as it crosses the mountains, so not expecting a lot of QPF. Locally expecting a quarter inch or less, favoring a high POP low QPF scenario. Looking at the model soundings, can't rule out some sleet at the onset prior to daybreak Friday, but no impacts expected as 85h Temps warm quickly ahead of the system. 85H winds are progged at close to 50 kts, so may experience some robust wind gusts at our highest elevations Friday.
By Friday night, best isentropic lift forecast well north of the forecast area from Ohio Valley into parts of New England. Best instability passes well south of the region across the Gulf Coast.
This suggest best chance for rain as we transition into the weekend will be either well north or well south of the local area.
Temperatures for the most part will return to normal with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 230 PM EST Tuesday...
Key Messages:
1. Unsettled weather.
2. Temperature above normal Saturday through Monday.
High confidence for mild temperatures, high humidity, and considerable cloud cover. Low confidence with respect to rain amounts.
Models look quite noisy with respect to embedded short wave energy and potential for rain Saturday through Monday. Ensembles suggest upwards of a half inch to an inch of rain during the period, but I just do not see the phasing needed to produce anything organized.
All of the short waves forecast are positively tilted which suggests QPF potential would be limited to bands of showers, as opposed to widespread overrunning. Until things come into better focus, will advertise chance threat for showers during the long term, reflecting lower confidence forecast with respect to measurable rain at any given time. Temperatures through Monday are forecast above normal with highs in the 50s to near 60 and lows of 35 to 45. After Monday, a bonafide push of colder air arrives for mid week...temperatures trending cooler.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 145 PM EST Tuesday...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF forecast period.
Subsidence was impacting the area behind the short wave that was crossing through the Ohio Valley. Drying evident in the drop in surface dew points and relative humidity and the eroding cloud cover and snow showers. Wind gusts will be from the northwest at 20 to 35 knots through 23Z/6PM.
Surface high pressure builds in tonight and will be centered over the Carolinas by Wednesday morning. Wind speeds will continue to slacken and with a clear sky, the wind will decouple, allowing for a sharper drop in temperatures. Models show some VFR mid and high level wave clouds east of the Blue Ridge at times overnight.
Average confidence on ceiling, visibility, and wind.
Extended Aviation Discussion...
Dry weather and improved flying conditions are expected Wednesday night through Thursday.
The next weather system chance of rain approaches Friday with sub-VFR likely, likely continuing through Sunday.
CLIMATE
As of 210 PM EST Tuesday...
A few low temperature records are in jeopardy of being broken or tied Wednesday morning.
Record lows for November 28:
Bluefield.....3 in 1930 Danville.....15 in 1938 Lynchburg....16 in 1932 Roanoke......14 in 1932 Blacksburg....8 in 1903
Record lows for November 29:
Bluefield.....3 in 1930 Forecast:12 Danville.....15 in 1938 Forecast:15 Lynchburg....16 in 1932 Forecast:16 Roanoke......14 in 1932 Forecast:18 Blacksburg....8 in 1903 Forecast:16
RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
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Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KROA ROANOKEBLACKSBURG RGNL/WOODRUM FIELD,VA | 4 sm | 23 min | WNW 15G20 | 10 sm | Clear | 36°F | 3°F | 25% | 30.15 | |
| KBCB VIRGINIA TECH/MONTGOMERY EXECUTIVE,VA | 24 sm | 22 min | WNW 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 32°F | 5°F | 31% | 30.13 |
Wind History from ROA
(wind in knots)
Blacksburg, VA,
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