Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Roanoke, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 215 AM EST Sunday...

Key messages:

- Windy today - Enhanced fire danger east of the Blue Ridge today - Rain tonight

Starting the day with upper ridging over the southeast and northwest flow across the Mid Atlantic area. Dew points will start in the teens. A 50 to 60 knot low level jet just off the surface will lead to a gusty wind, especially this morning, and some compression and drying east of the Blue Ridge into the afternoon. NBM 1D viewer high end of the wind gust spread was 35 to 40 mph for most locations. Only minor changes planned for maximum temperatures today.

An upper low in the Southern Plains will track into the Ohio Valley by tonight as it transitions to an open wave. This will turn the mean flow over the Mid Atlantic to the southwest and will increase the surface dew points and precipitable water values tonight. Temperatures will hold nearly steady overnight as surface dew points rise into the 40s.

The best lift arrives this evening with a decent area of upper diffluence and positive vorticity advection. Clouds and rain spread across the area from west to east after 00Z/7PM. The short range guidance has minor differences with the onset time of the rain, but all models were in agreement that a majority of the rain will not begin until after midnight.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 205 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for periods of rain on Monday and again for late Tuesday into Tuesday night.

2) Colder air, gusty winds, and mountain snow showers should follow for Wednesday and Wednesday night.

A shortwave trough in the southern stream will cross the Appalachian Mountains on Monday morning to bring periods of rain. As this trough exits during late Monday, the rain should taper. By Tuesday, a more potent trough in the northern stream will approach with a cold front that should provide better synoptic lift and moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico. Rainfall amounts will be notably higher during Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night compared to the rainfall earlier on Monday. Some model guidance depicts up to an inch along the Blue Ridge during Tuesday night.

Because of an upper level ridge over the Southeast coast, Monday and Tuesday night will feature a broad southwest flow. The resulting warm air advection should push temperatures above normal despite the cloud cover and rain. However, the aforementioned cold front will arrive by daybreak on Wednesday, and the wind should shift towards the northwest and become gusty. Colder air behind the front will cause any rain to change to snow in the mountains as temperatures fall throughout the day. After having high temperatures in the 50s on Monday and Tuesday, it will be another shocking reminder that winter is here as temperatures fall into the teens and 20s on Wednesday night along with wind chills crashing towards the single digits west of the Blue Ridge.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 205 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for drier weather for the end of the week.

2) Temperatures will remain rather below normal but slowly moderate.

Mountain snow showers or flurries may linger along the higher elevations of southeast West Virginia into Thursday morning, but this activity should dissipate as Canadian high pressure arrives.
This area of high pressure will take control by Thursday afternoon and persist through Friday, so the end of this work week should stay dry. Temperatures will remain below normal with the Arctic air mass in place, but they should begin to slowly moderate as the weekend approaches. As high pressure heads eastward on Saturday, some of the models hint at another low pressure system developing across the southern Plains. With too much model uncertainty at this point, Saturday was kept dry with clouds increasing.

AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 245 AM EST Sunday...

Starting the day with upper ridging over the southeast and northwest flow across the Mid Atlantic area. A 50 to 60 knot low level jet just off the surface will lead to a gusty wind, especially this morning, and some LLWS. NBM 1D viewer high end of the wind gust spread was 35 to 40 mph for most locations.

An upper low in the Southern Plains will track into the Ohio Valley by tonight as it transitions to an open wave. This will turn the mean flow over the Mid Atlantic to the southwest and will increase the surface dew points and precipitable water values tonight. Ceilings will lower from top down but remain VFR through 00Z/7PM.

The best lift arrives this evening with a decent area of upper diffluence and positive vorticity advection. Clouds and rain spread across the area from west to east. The short range guidance has minor differences with the onset time of the rain, but all models were in agreement that a majority of the rain will not begin until after the 06Z/1AM end of the valid TAF forecast period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Periods of -RA/RA and sub-VFR conditions are expected Monday morning through Wednesday.

A cold front crosses the Mid Atlantic region on Wednesday leading in colder air and gusty wind. Mountain rain and snow showers with MVFR ceiling and visibility will continue Wednesday night.

Thursday morning any remaining MVFR upslope clouds along the western slopes of the central Appalachians will dissipate. The rest of the area will be VFR.

FIRE WEATHER
As of 1234 PM EST Saturday...

Dry antecedent conditions and lowering RH/gusty winds Sunday will lead to drying fuels. This is mainly over our foothills and Piedmont Sunday afternoon. Strongest winds will be prior to 1pm, while the lower humidity happens in the afternoon.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.