Roanoke, VA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Roanoke, VA

June 16, 2024 8:10 PM EDT (00:10 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:57 AM   Sunset 8:43 PM
Moonrise 2:40 PM   Moonset 1:22 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Roanoke, VA
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Area Discussion for - Blacksburg, VA
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FXUS61 KRNK 162338 AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 738 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will cover the region through the end of the week.
This will result in unseasonably warm temperatures and a limited chance of showers and thunderstorms.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 640 PM EDT Sunday...

The biggest adjustment to the forecast heading through the early evening is a greater expanse of cloud cover over mainly portions of southwest Virginia and northwest North Carolina than earlier advertised. We still expect a general trend towards less cloud cover as the night progresses. However southern and southwestern sections are expected to maintain the greatest coverage, and lingering isolated showers through the overnight.

As of 110 PM EDT Sunday...

Key message:

- Mountain scattered showers/storms Monday, otherwise warming up

Not too bad for Father's Day but a tick up in the humidity.

Moisture in the low levels continues to track across the southern Blue Ridge into the southside VA, with some moisture convergence along the escarpment to generate showers, that have shifted northeast into the NW NC piedmont but very little coverage.

Will still likely see some pop up coverage this afternoon across far southwest VA into NW NC away from the influence of the high where better theta-e ridging and low level convergence occurs.

Tonight, models have any showers fading but southeast flow persists so kept some low chance of showers in over far southwest VA into the NC mountains/foothill.

The 5h ridge expected to stay overhead Monday. Models showing more coverage over the mountains and moreso toward the TN Valley as weak upper vort combined with heating/moisture allow for some storm development. Confidence is not very high on coverage Monday but have upped pops to 30-40 from the Alleghanys to the NC Blue Ridge and points west with little to no chances east of the Blue Ridge of VA. Any storms that fire up will propagate west to east but flow is weak, so with pwats up to 1.5" storms could bring some heavy downpours.

Dewpoints also increase Monday so heat indices start to get up into the lower to mid 90s east of the mountains with highs ranging from near 90 east to upper 70s to mid 80s mountains. Any cloud cover from the storms and residual low level clouds tonight could limit the heat.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 1230 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for a warming trend to ensue.

2) Rain chances will vanish by the middle of the week.

Lingering showers and thunderstorms should retreat westward and fade after sunset, which will allow the remainder of Monday night to become dry. Surface high pressure should remain off the East Coast to provide a southeasterly breeze across the Mid Atlantic during Tuesday and Wednesday. Meanwhile, a strong upper level ridge will build across the Northeast with 500 mb heights peaking at an impressive 600 dam just off the coasts of New Jersey and New York.
This ridge should suppress any rain chances by the middle of the week, and the plentiful sunshine should allow high temperatures to rise into the lower 80s to the lower 90s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 1230 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for the first heat wave of 2024 to arrive just in time for the summer solstice.

2) A chance of showers and thunderstorms may return by the weekend.

The summer solstice starts at 4:51 PM EDT on Thursday, and it will definitely feel like summer has arrived as the first heat wave of 2024 takes place across the Mid Atlantic. An anomalously strong upper level ridge will keep conditions hot and dry through Thursday and Friday. Temperatures should soar into the mid 80s to the mid 90s by the end of the week. While heat indices appear to stay below 100 degrees, plans should still be made to have plenty of fluids, sunscreen, and ways to stay cool if preparing for any outdoor activities during the latter half of the week.

By Saturday, the models are indicating an upper level trough should enter the northern Plains. The upper level ridge over the Mid Atlantic would slowly weaken as the aforementioned trough approaches the Great Lakes by Sunday. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will start to tick upward in the mountains during Saturday afternoon and could increase further by Sunday afternoon. Temperatures may begin to drop slightly as the weekend progresses due to increasing clouds and the potential for afternoon convection.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 730 PM EDT Sunday...

The region currently is experiencing more cloud cover than not, with the best coverage over southwest Virginia and northwest North Carolina. Much of the cloud cover over along and southwest of a KMKJ-KHLX-KMWK line is experiencing MVFR ceilings with a few spots in the North Carolina mountains seeing LIFR/IFR ceilings. Additionally, some patchy light rain was accompanying the lowest of the ceilings. As the night progresses, there will be a general trend of decreasing cloud cover along the edge of the forecast area. However, with a continued light southeast flow helping to pool moisture into the eastern flanks of the Appalachians, these regions are expected to continue with near status quo of cloud cover. Patchy fog will be possible for a few hours heading into daybreak Monday. For Monday, we will see gradual improvement in cloud height categories and a general trend in decreasing clouds in general. However, isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible, especially over the mountains, from mid-day through the afternoon hours.

Confidence in the above aviation scenario is moderate.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure will cover the region this week. Aside for some morning river fog in the mountain valleys, conditions are expected to be primarily VFR. The chance of showers and thunderstorms will be low.

RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KROA ROANOKEBLACKSBURG RGNL/WOODRUM FIELD,VA 4 sm16 minS 0910 smMostly Cloudy81°F63°F54%30.18
KBCB VIRGINIA TECH/MONTGOMERY EXECUTIVE,VA 24 sm15 minSSE 0410 smOvercast75°F64°F69%30.25
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Blacksburg, VA,




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