Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Grundy, VA
 | Sunrise 7:40 AM Sunset 7:35 PM Moonrise 4:20 AM Moonset 2:03 PM |
Marine Forecasts
NOTE: Zones were updated 3/20/2025. If your report is out of date, please click Edit
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grundy, VA
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FXUS61 KRLX 150020 AFDRLX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 820 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
Aviation Forecast Discussion update.
157 PM update...
Adjusted dew points downward for this afternoon to match observational trends of mixing into a very dry airmass aloft.
Still expect instability limited gusty showers and thunderstorms along a strong cold front late Sunday night into Monday morning. Highlighted the widespread continuous freeze expected Monday night into Wednesday morning.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Very dry this afternoon, but winds remain generally light.
Breezy conditions develop on Sunday.
2. A strong cold front will cross the region late Sunday night into Monday morning, bringing a threat of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes despite limited instability.
3. Temperatures will crash on Monday, transitioning rain to snow. Light snow accumulations are expected in the Northeast Mountains Monday night.
4. A widespread hard freeze is expected Monday night through Tuesday night, posing a significant hazard to any very early season vegetation that has emerged.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Visible satellite and surface observations this afternoon depict partly skies and an extremely dry airmass mixing to the surface. Dew points have plummeted into the upper single digits and teens across the region, dropping relative humidity values into the 15 to 20 percent range. While surface winds remain generally light around 5 to 10 mph, preventing critical fire weather conditions, the 10-hour fuel moisture values from regional RAWS sites have dropped below 10. This indicates that fine-small dead fuels are highly receptive to ignition.
Overnight burning is discouraged tonight to limit the risk of any holdover embers Sunday.
Tonight will feature mainly just some thin upper level cloudiness and initially light winds, setting up strong radiational cooling. Expect a pronounced ridge and valley temperature split to develop. Cold air drainage will drop temperatures sharply in the hollows and other protected valleys while the ridges remain relatively warm. Increasingly low level flow will continue to warm the ridges heading into daybreak.
On Sunday, strong low-level warm air advection will push afternoon high temperatures into the low to mid 70s. While southwest winds will increase ahead of an approaching system, the warm advection regime will limit mixing heights and restrict downward momentum flux. Consequently, surface gusts should generally be confined to the 25 to 35 mph range. However, localized gusts up to 40 mph will be possible in southeast Ohio where boundary layer mixing will be slightly deeper, and southeast of the higher terrain where isentropic downglide could transport stronger momentum to the surface.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A highly dynamic mid-latitude cyclone will track toward the Great Lakes Sunday night, swinging a potent cold front through the forecast area late Sunday night into Monday morning. The primary forecast challenge with this frontal passage is the severe wind threat. Thermodynamic profiles show a distinct lack of instability, with MLCAPE values remaining negligible.
However, kinematics are extreme, characterized by an H850 jet surging to 60-70KTs.
Given the intense synoptic forcing and the presence of modest dew point depressions below H850 for the morning hours, downward momentum transfer may bring damaging wind gusts to the surface within any showers or thunderstorms. A fast-moving line is expected to propagate eastward at 40 to 50 mph. Furthermore, intense low-level shear yields a non-zero threat for isolated, brief tornadoes within the line. Should any spin-ups occur, the rapid forward motion of the system would lead to a path of enhanced wind damage on the south side of the tornadic circulation with damage that would likely look very similar to straight line winds. Will likely end up with an overarching product, SPS or Wind Advisory to cover the more widespread effects of this momentum transport along with non-convective winds and target any stronger cells or typical QLCS trouble spots with a severe thunderstorms or tornado warning.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
In the wake of the frontal passage Monday morning, intense cold air advection will result in a severely non-diurnal temperature trend. Temperatures will crash from the 50s and 60s early Monday morning down into the 30s by late afternoon. Rapidly steepening low-level lapse rates will allow synoptic wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph to persist through much of the day Monday.
As the atmospheric column crashes below freezing, precipitation will quickly transition from rain to snow showers. During the daylight hours, the relatively warm ground conditions and higher March sun angle will largely mitigate any accumulations.
However, heading into Monday evening, synoptic moisture will be progressively replaced by a northwesterly fetch off Lake Michigan, establishing a lake-enhanced upslope snow pattern.
While synoptic moisture remains the dendritic growth zone appears relatively robust, but will become more limited as the moisture source is replaced. Could eventually need some low end winter weather advisories with 1-2" across some of the lower elevations and 2-4" in the mountains.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
The influx of arctic air will bring a prolonged period of sub- freezing temperatures to the region. By Tuesday morning, low temperatures will fall into the mid-teens to lower 20s across the lowlands, and into the single digits in the Northeast Mountains. High pressure building in Tuesday night will promote another night of excellent radiational cooling. This hard freeze will be damaging to unprotected sensitive early-season vegetation that has emerged with recent warm and wet conditions.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Mid to high level clouds perusing the area tonight will pose no concerns to flight rules ahead of a system arriving for the end of the weekend. A warm front presses northward by Sunday morning, accompanied by a strengthening low level jet. Winds aloft nearing 40-45kts will promote a period of wind shear gusts before dawn. This will then translate down to the surface during the day Sunday, with gusty southerly winds on the upwards of 20 to 30 kts across all TAF sites.
Beyond the current TAF period, a broken line of thunderstorms dashing ahead of a cold front late Sunday night into Monday.
This will be the next opportunity for flight restrictions.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 03/15/26 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in rain/snow showers on Monday into Monday night.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 820 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
Aviation Forecast Discussion update.
157 PM update...
Adjusted dew points downward for this afternoon to match observational trends of mixing into a very dry airmass aloft.
Still expect instability limited gusty showers and thunderstorms along a strong cold front late Sunday night into Monday morning. Highlighted the widespread continuous freeze expected Monday night into Wednesday morning.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Very dry this afternoon, but winds remain generally light.
Breezy conditions develop on Sunday.
2. A strong cold front will cross the region late Sunday night into Monday morning, bringing a threat of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes despite limited instability.
3. Temperatures will crash on Monday, transitioning rain to snow. Light snow accumulations are expected in the Northeast Mountains Monday night.
4. A widespread hard freeze is expected Monday night through Tuesday night, posing a significant hazard to any very early season vegetation that has emerged.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Visible satellite and surface observations this afternoon depict partly skies and an extremely dry airmass mixing to the surface. Dew points have plummeted into the upper single digits and teens across the region, dropping relative humidity values into the 15 to 20 percent range. While surface winds remain generally light around 5 to 10 mph, preventing critical fire weather conditions, the 10-hour fuel moisture values from regional RAWS sites have dropped below 10. This indicates that fine-small dead fuels are highly receptive to ignition.
Overnight burning is discouraged tonight to limit the risk of any holdover embers Sunday.
Tonight will feature mainly just some thin upper level cloudiness and initially light winds, setting up strong radiational cooling. Expect a pronounced ridge and valley temperature split to develop. Cold air drainage will drop temperatures sharply in the hollows and other protected valleys while the ridges remain relatively warm. Increasingly low level flow will continue to warm the ridges heading into daybreak.
On Sunday, strong low-level warm air advection will push afternoon high temperatures into the low to mid 70s. While southwest winds will increase ahead of an approaching system, the warm advection regime will limit mixing heights and restrict downward momentum flux. Consequently, surface gusts should generally be confined to the 25 to 35 mph range. However, localized gusts up to 40 mph will be possible in southeast Ohio where boundary layer mixing will be slightly deeper, and southeast of the higher terrain where isentropic downglide could transport stronger momentum to the surface.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A highly dynamic mid-latitude cyclone will track toward the Great Lakes Sunday night, swinging a potent cold front through the forecast area late Sunday night into Monday morning. The primary forecast challenge with this frontal passage is the severe wind threat. Thermodynamic profiles show a distinct lack of instability, with MLCAPE values remaining negligible.
However, kinematics are extreme, characterized by an H850 jet surging to 60-70KTs.
Given the intense synoptic forcing and the presence of modest dew point depressions below H850 for the morning hours, downward momentum transfer may bring damaging wind gusts to the surface within any showers or thunderstorms. A fast-moving line is expected to propagate eastward at 40 to 50 mph. Furthermore, intense low-level shear yields a non-zero threat for isolated, brief tornadoes within the line. Should any spin-ups occur, the rapid forward motion of the system would lead to a path of enhanced wind damage on the south side of the tornadic circulation with damage that would likely look very similar to straight line winds. Will likely end up with an overarching product, SPS or Wind Advisory to cover the more widespread effects of this momentum transport along with non-convective winds and target any stronger cells or typical QLCS trouble spots with a severe thunderstorms or tornado warning.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
In the wake of the frontal passage Monday morning, intense cold air advection will result in a severely non-diurnal temperature trend. Temperatures will crash from the 50s and 60s early Monday morning down into the 30s by late afternoon. Rapidly steepening low-level lapse rates will allow synoptic wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph to persist through much of the day Monday.
As the atmospheric column crashes below freezing, precipitation will quickly transition from rain to snow showers. During the daylight hours, the relatively warm ground conditions and higher March sun angle will largely mitigate any accumulations.
However, heading into Monday evening, synoptic moisture will be progressively replaced by a northwesterly fetch off Lake Michigan, establishing a lake-enhanced upslope snow pattern.
While synoptic moisture remains the dendritic growth zone appears relatively robust, but will become more limited as the moisture source is replaced. Could eventually need some low end winter weather advisories with 1-2" across some of the lower elevations and 2-4" in the mountains.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
The influx of arctic air will bring a prolonged period of sub- freezing temperatures to the region. By Tuesday morning, low temperatures will fall into the mid-teens to lower 20s across the lowlands, and into the single digits in the Northeast Mountains. High pressure building in Tuesday night will promote another night of excellent radiational cooling. This hard freeze will be damaging to unprotected sensitive early-season vegetation that has emerged with recent warm and wet conditions.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Mid to high level clouds perusing the area tonight will pose no concerns to flight rules ahead of a system arriving for the end of the weekend. A warm front presses northward by Sunday morning, accompanied by a strengthening low level jet. Winds aloft nearing 40-45kts will promote a period of wind shear gusts before dawn. This will then translate down to the surface during the day Sunday, with gusty southerly winds on the upwards of 20 to 30 kts across all TAF sites.
Beyond the current TAF period, a broken line of thunderstorms dashing ahead of a cold front late Sunday night into Monday.
This will be the next opportunity for flight restrictions.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 03/15/26 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in rain/snow showers on Monday into Monday night.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KJFZ
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KJFZ
Wind History Graph: JFZ
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of great lakes
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Charleston, WV,
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