Wednesday, March3, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grundy, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 6:26PM Wednesday March 3, 2021 7:34 AM EST (12:34 UTC) Moonrise 11:39PMMoonset 9:41AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grundy, VA
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location: 37.28, -82.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 031143 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 643 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure settles south of the area today, allowing a cold front to cross tonight. High pressure builds Thursday through the weekend, then gives way to southwest flow early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 640 AM Wednesday .

Forecast on track.

As of 345 AM Wednesday .

High pressure settles south of the area today, allowing a return west to southwest flow to increase, and become a bit gusty this afternoon. Leaned toward higher end of guidance for highs and wind gusts today amid a mixed layer through h85 beneath a stout subsidence inversion, and abundant early March sunshine. Models are likely increasing moisture too quickly in the mixed layer, so adjusted dew points lower, which get RH values down into the 30s, with some 20s in the mountains, this afternoon.

A moisture starved cold front crosses the area from northwest to southeast tonight. Precipitation can develop once the front reaches the mountains late tonight on added lift due to enhanced convergence and in upslope flow behind it. Snow is possible over the higher ridges once the top of the cloud, at the inversion just above h85, gets cold enough to support sublimation rather than condensation, -8 to -10 C, and surface temperatures get below freezing there. Expect nothing more than a coating of snow on the very highest ridges.

Momentum transfer in the mixed layer can bring wind gusts to 35 mph or a little higher across the ridges for a time tonight ahead of the cold front, where flow aloft is forecast to be strongest.

Used a blend of MOS and raw Canadian data for temperatures as the front crosses tonight, which may turn out to be a little higher ahead of the front.

Trimmed our last area flood warning but extended the remainder of it through the day today, in the Huntington tri state area, where rivers remain high and backwater lingers. River flood warnings continue along the Ohio River, which was entering a slow crest in minor to moderate flood from Belleville southwest to Greenup, where it nows appears it will take until Saturday for it to fall back below flood stage.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. As of 210 AM Wednesday .

Light upslope showers linger into the day Thursday with lake enhanced moisture still streaming into the region on north- northwesterly flow behind a cold front with a dusting of snow possible in the higher elevations. Post frontal flow should also yield some gusts, 25-30 mph across the higher terrain while any gusts in the lower elevations remain generally under 20 mph. North-northwesterly flow weakens Thursday night into Friday as surface high pressure slowly settles into the region with any upstream moisture connection eventually fading.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 210 AM Wednesday .

A southern stream disturbance passing by to the south will yield little more than increasing mid and upper level cloudiness Saturday. A northern stream jet max transits the region Saturday night into Sunday amid low level northwesterly flow bringing in some low level moisture from the Great Lakes in response to a cut-off low across southern Quebec. This may yield some snow showers into Sunday morning. With any snow accumulations unlikely and 4 days out, will keep a mention of flurries out of the grids for now. Overnight lows generally in the lower 20s with daily warm-up into the 40s through Sunday with ever increasing Sun angles. Cold dome of high pressure eventually shifts east for the start of the work week with mild conditions resuming as southwesterly flow strengthens. A more active pattern looks to resume by mid-week.

AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 640 AM Wednesday .

CAVU sponsored by high pressure today. A cold front approaching from the northwest will introduce some stratocu tonight, which may become BKN and lower to MVFR in the mountains, with rain and snow showers possible by dawn.

Light and variable flow early this morning will become generally west today, and be a bit gusty across the north and in the mountains this afternoon. Winds will shift to the northwest as the front crosses overnight tonight, still gusty across the north and in the mountains. Light west to northwest flow aloft today will become moderate west to northwest tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY . FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Gusty winds will fluctuate a bit. Timing of arrival of MVFR stratocu, and its height, may vary overnight tonight. A snow shower may produce MVFR at EKN near the end of the TAF period, daybreak Thursday.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE WED 03/03/21 UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY . No widespread IFR conditions in the foreseeable future.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WV . None. OH . None. KY . None. VA . None.

SYNOPSIS . TRM/JP NEAR TERM . TRM SHORT TERM . JP LONG TERM . JP AVIATION . TRM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tazewell County Airport, VA22 mi40 minWNW 410.00 miFair29°F17°F62%1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJFZ

Wind History from JFZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN3NE5E3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSE3SE4CalmCalmSW3S3SW3W5
1 day agoS5W9
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W8W7N3N5CalmCalmW3W4SW4W7W9

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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