Sunrise 6:45 AM   Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 4:15 PM   Moonset 4:20 AM

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FXUS61 KRLX 200634 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 234 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
Cooler/drier this weekend, then slowly warming through Tuesday ahead of another cold front that brings wet weather back to the area Tuesday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 230 AM Saturday...

Surface high pressure builds in from the west, pushing remnants light showers east of the Appalachians this morning. Much fresh/colder air filters in, bringing plenty of sunshine and pleasant temperatures for Saturday, generally in the 60s across the lowlands, ranging to the upper 40s higher elevations.

With brief afternoon gusty winds, mixing will drop relative humidity values into the upper 20s to lower 30s areawide. RHs recovers to over 50 percent after midnight tonight.

For tonight, a relaxed pressure gradient provides light to calm winds. Models suggest cold air in place with the minus 5C line arriving to our northern sections tonight. Combined with mostly clear skies, radiational cooling effects could drop temperatures into the mid to lower 30s across the area. This will promote patchy frost mainly across the northern lowlands late tonight into Sunday morning. However, a southern stream mid-level shortwave lifts northeast across northeast KY and southern WV, late tonight bringing abundant clouds for these areas. These clouds may keep areas of frost to become widespread, or even to develop. Will continue to mention in HWO as confidence runs low at this time.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 220 AM Saturday...

Quiet conditions are expected through the balance of the weekend into early next week as surface high pressure slowly spreads east across the middle of the country whilst Canadian Arctic high pressure largely respects the border.

Monday morning looks to be the coolest of this stretch with widespread frost and some patchy freeze possible where the growing season is open.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 220 AM Saturday...

High pressure shifts off to the east Monday putting the region back into southwesterly flow Tuesday ahead of an approaching northern stream low rising the baroclinic zone along the Canadian border slated to arrive in the Lower Great Lakes Tuesday night. This should yield a brief return to mild conditions with daytime highs across the lower elevations in the upper 60s to lower 70s amid a modest uptick in precipitable water to around 3/4s of an inch. A cold front associated with the aforementioned low will drag across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning yielding around a third to half of an inch of rainfall averaged across the basin. Instability looks rather meager, and coupled with overnight timing will cap any chances for convection at slight.

Cooler northwesterly flow over Lake Erie in the wake of cold frontal passage Wednesday likely yields at least some lake enhanced moisture plume feeding into the region during the day with fairly steep low level lapse rates through 5000 ft. Could see some low topped showers with this activity at least through Wednesday afternoon.

With the cool and relatively dry air in place Thursday morning, could see some additional patchy frost across the north. The balance of the work week appears quiet with the next chance for precipitation looming for next weekend.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 129 AM Saturday...

Most of the lingering light showers have moved northeast of EKN and BKW tonight. MVFR low stratus may be possible to affect BKW and EKN through at least 12Z before dissipating. Otherwise, clouds will continue to raise from west to east with VFR conditions across PKB, HTS and CRW through the overnight hours.

Guidance suggest clearing will spread from west to east overnight through 12Z Saturday. Widespread VFR conditions are expected Saturday and Saturday night.

Winds will stay out of the northwest and pick up in intensity slightly for the afternoon where gusts in the low 20's will be possible through the afternoon at most, if not all sites.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE SAT 04/20/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M L M L L L M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR is expected at this time.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

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