Thursday, August13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Grundy, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 8:23PM Thursday August 13, 2020 2:01 PM EDT (18:01 UTC) Moonrise 12:22AMMoonset 3:05PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grundy, VA
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location: 37.28, -82.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 131710 AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 110 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak frontal boundary will remain stalled over the region through the rest of the work week. Weather remains unsettled through the upcoming weekend. Cold front Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 1003 AM Thursday .

Temperatures have been trending a bit cooler this morning for areas around the Tygart Valley as low stratus has only been slowly eroding and so made some adjustments to hourly temperatures there. Also, decreased sky cover for areas west of the mountains as latest satellite trends shows more clearing for now before diurnal cu field increases later this afternoon.

As of 510 AM Thursday .

Minor update to expand valley fog and redo T/Td curves. Forecast remains on track overall.

As of 315 AM Thursday .

A frontal boundary will remain stalled over northern West Virginia and southern Ohio today. Today will be similar to yesterday in that the greatest chances of afternoon/evening convection will lie in the higher elevations. However, more portions of the West Virginia lowlands/tri-state area could see at least some isolated cells later this afternoon as a weak mid-level wave crosses into the Middle Ohio Valley.

Ingredients for downpours and possibly isolated flooding remain in place, particularly in the mountains. In this area, PWAT values of 1.6 to 1.8 inches, weak steering flow, and warm-cloud depths of about 11K feet suggest more efficient rainfall- producing storms. Think that the flooding threat is still isolated enough to hold off on a Flash Flood Watch, but will maintain the flood threat in the HWO. It will also be another warm and humid afternoon with highs on Thursday near 90 across the lowlands and mid 60s and in the 70s to near 80 in the higher elevations.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. As of 315 AM Thursday .

The previously mentioned shortwave trough deepens a bit and crawls eastward into this weekend, with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms. The most widespread rain is expected Saturday with the approach and passage of the mid-level trough axis. With continued high moisture and weak flow, slow-moving downpours will continue to be a threat, particularly during the afternoon and evening when instability is the highest. However, any severe threat will be muted by the abundant cloud cover as well as the lack of shear or appreciable dry air aloft. Warm and humid conditions will continue Friday, with temperatures held a bit more in check on Saturday due to more widespread rain.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 315 AM Thursday .

The shortwave finally departs by Sunday, but warmth, humidity, and rain chances linger until a cold front passes on Monday. Behind this front, longwave heights remain relatively suppressed across the Great Lakes and northeast CONUS into the middle of next week. Sprawling high pressure builds into the region for Tuesday and Wednesday, leading to dry weather and lower humidity.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 108 PM Thursday .

High pressure to the north of the area should maintain mainly VFR conditions across the region through the remainder of the afternoon. However, there may be brief periods of IFR/MVFR restrictions as a stalled frontal boundary over the area should provide enough focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Greatest chance for thunderstorm activity is expected to be across the mountains and less of a chance across the lower elevations.

Any precipitation across the area should dissipate tonight with the loss of daytime heating. However, light to calm winds and moisture in the low levels of the atmosphere should support the development of fog and/or low stratus overnight. An extended period of IFR or even LIFR conditions will be possible where fog and/or stratus develops. Otherwise, any fog across the area should lift by around 13Z on Friday and VFR conditions should then return to most of the area. However, MVFR stratus may linger throughout most of the morning across the mountains. In addition, an upper level disturbance will approach the area tomorrow with another round of showers and thunderstorms and possible further restrictions by the end of the TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY . FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, duration, and extent of fog overnight may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY . Brief IFR in showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will then be possible on Saturday with additional brief IFR restrictions.

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WV . None. OH . None. KY . None. VA . None.

SYNOPSIS . CL NEAR TERM . CL/RG SHORT TERM . CL LONG TERM . CL AVIATION . RG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tazewell County Airport, VA22 mi67 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F69°F79%1021 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJFZ

Wind History from JFZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4E9NW3CalmCalmCalmNE4N3SE4CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3NW4CalmSE3
1 day agoW4NW3N5W3SW4S3S3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSW4W4N3CalmCalmSW3SW4CalmCalmS4S3CalmS3SE3S3CalmSE4CalmCalmNW3W7W5W6Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, WV
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.