Williamsburg, VA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Williamsburg, VA

April 15, 2024 8:23 PM EDT (00:23 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:28 AM   Sunset 7:41 PM
Moonrise 10:51 AM   Moonset 1:31 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 803 Pm Edt Mon Apr 15 2024

.severe Thunderstorm watch 109 in effect until 10 pm edt this evening - .

Tonight - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw late. Waves around 1 foot. Rain with tstms likely this evening.

Tue - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot.

Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

Wed - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers.

Thu - SW winds 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves around 1 foot. A chance of showers in the morning.

Thu night - NE winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

Fri - NE winds 10 kt. Waves around 1 foot.

Fri night - E winds 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Waves around 1 foot.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

ANZ600 803 Pm Edt Mon Apr 15 2024

Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
cold front continues to drop through the area tonight before shifting back north of the region as a warm front Tuesday into Tuesday night. Another, stronger cold front crosses the region by late week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Williamsburg, VA
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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 152339 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 739 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front drops south through the area this evening with showers and thunderstorms possible for most of the area. This front is forecast to lift back north as a warm front Tuesday night. Another front crosses the area Thursday with a stronger cold front then expected by the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1. Warm and dry through mid to late afternoon.

2. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop later this afternoon, spreading southeast into this evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats.

3. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 109 is in effect for all but our NC counties until 10PM this evening.

Temps have risen into the 80s for most of the area under mostly clear skies. Attention is on the severe wx threat this afternoon and evening. A frontal boundary is dropping southward allowing for the development of scattered thunderstorms to the N and NW of our area so far this afternoon. Low level moisture is slowly increasing across the region. Observed soundings from this morning to our N and NW sampled the Elevated Mixed Layer (EML) quite well with mid level lapse rates generally 7.5-8.5 C/km. These steep lapse rates, combined with sfc temps well into the 80s and dew points in the 50s, will allow for 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon/early evening. Storm organization will also be fostered by unidirectional WNW/NW flow aloft which leads to around 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear.
While the W-SW sfc flow will promote some mixing and drying during peak heating (and thus introduces some questions regarding storm coverage), still expecting at least scattered tstm coverage given the favorable low-level environment for cold pool propagation and upscale growth. Coverage will be limited initially as there is also a small cap shown in soundings that will need to be overcome.

The primary threats are large hail and especially damaging winds. Hail is expected to favored initially as single cell or transient supercell structures develop with the support of the aforementioned mid-level lapse rates. Hail in the 1-1.75" range is most likely in any discrete severe storm. As additional storms develop, upscale growth into clusters and/or a line is expected as storms take advantage of the favorable inverted-V low-level environment (DCAPE > 1000 J/kg seen in model soundings). This will then favor the damaging wind threat becoming dominant. Damaging wind gusts of 60-75 mph are possible in any storm. The tornado threat remains very low. SPC has introduced an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) this afternoon, driven by the potential for damaging straight line winds. The Enhanced Risk is centered over the north central portion of area, generally over the Richmond Metro and extending west to near Farmville, south to the 460 corridor, and eastward along the western shore of the bay. A Slight Risk (level 2 of 5)
covers the remainder of the area. Will continue to highlight this threat in the HWO. The highest PoPs and storm coverage are initially expected N and NE of metro Richmond, spreading S and SE into the US-460 corridor, Middle Peninsula, and Hampton Roads. As heating is lost after sunset, storm intensity and coverage will tend to decrease, especially S of the NC/VA border. Expect all storms to dissipate by 12-2 AM tonight with just a lingering shower or two possible. Lows tonight will range from the mid 50s N to around 60 S.
Mostly cloudy skies expected Wednesday with the front remaining near the area. This could spark additional showers and isolated tstms, especially N. Highs Wed in the upper 70s-low 80s for most of VA and NC. It'll remain around 70 on the Eastern Shore where the flow will be off the cooler waters. A weak cold front approaches from the W Wed night/early Thu which leads to a somewhat higher coverage of showers. PoPs are 30-50% though QPF should remain on the light side (0.25" or less). Overnight lows Wed in the 50s N/NE and 60s S.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

The front sags southward into central NC early Tuesday before lifting back N and NE during the evening and overnight hours. Not quite as warm behind the front with highs ranging from the 60s/low 70s on the Eastern Shore, low/mid 70s for areas along and NE of the I-64 corridor, and upper 70s to low 80s SW. The SW third of the CWA will be closest to the front and associated low level moisture and instability tomorrow afternoon/evening and a few showers or storms are possible in these areas. Coverage is expected to be pretty sparse with minimal QPF. Low-end chances for a shower or two continue into Tuesday night with lows in the 50s.

Mostly cloudy skies expected Wednesday with the front remaining near the area. This could spark additional showers and isolated tstms, especially N. Highs Wed in the upper 70s-low 80s for most of VA and NC. It'll remain around 70 on the Eastern Shore where the flow will be off the cooler waters. A weak cold front approaches from the W Wed night/early Thu which leads to a somewhat higher coverage of showers. PoPs are 30-50% though QPF should remain on the light side (0.25" or less). Overnight lows Wed in the 50s N/NE and 60s S.
Thursday continues to look like the warmest day of the mid week period with highs in the 80s for most of the area (70s across the NE), despite the weak cold front moving through. Will keep chance/slight chance PoPs over most of the area due to the cold frontal passage occuring during the day. Will also have a low-end thunder potential across the region during the afternoon.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

Remaining on the mild side late week into the first half of the weekend with on and off unsettled periods. Another cold front moves toward the area later Friday into Saturday with additional chances for showers and possibly thunderstorms. The 12z suite of deterministic guidance is in somewhat better agreement with the timing of the FROPA. The GFS and ECMWF both show a Saturday FROPA, though the GFS is still several hrs faster. Whether this occurs in the morning or aftn will dictate the extent of the tstm threat.
There still isn't much of a high QPF signal as the front traverses E of the Appalachians so will keep PoPs in the 30-40%/chance range.
Temps Friday will be seasonable with 70s for most of the area and perhaps 60s on the ern shore. NBM guidance continues to suggest warmer temps on Saturday, though this is dependent on the frontal passage and continue to see a large spread in the guidance and ensembles. For now, expecting 70s and 80s (warmest S/SW). Sunday will be much cooler behind the front with temps topping out in the 60s, though some guidance suggests 50s across the N. Lows Sunday night range from the low 40s N to right around 50 degrees for areas near the Albemarle Sound. Cool on Monday as well with highs in the low to mid 60s.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 735 PM EDT Monday...

A cold front is dropping south through the area currently. A line of thunderstorms continues to move south/southeastward from RIC south. These storms are producing wind gusts upwards of 35-40kt and small hail. The threat is now moving towards PHF and ORF between 00-02Z. Showers and storms will then move towards ECG, though confidence is lower on wind impacts there as the storms may try to dissipate slightly. Brief VIS reductions will be likely in these storms. Storm/rain chances end from north to south late this evening with skies trying to eventually break by morning. Behind the front, expecting winds to become northeasterly at 5-8kt into Tuesday morning.

Outlook: Most terminals will remain dry on Tuesday, however, there is a slight chance of storms mainly from RIC west and south late tomorrow. Rain chances may return Wednesday as well before drier conditions move in for later Thursday.

MARINE
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

High pressure remains off the Southeast coast this afternoon.
Conditions are calm locally right now with west/southwest winds of 8- 12kt with waves of 1-2ft and 2-3ft seas. A weakening cold front is slowly dropping south into the state. Storms are expected to develop ahead of the front and move south/southeastward later this afternoon and into the evening hours, generally between 5-10pm. At least a few SMWs will likely be needed for 34+ kt wind gusts and potentially isolated hail.

Storm chances will end from north to south later this evening. Winds will become northeasterly behind the front during the early morning hours, then turn more easterly during the day. Speeds will generally remain below SCA thresholds, though there may be a 2-3 hour period where the Bay sees very low-end SCA winds roughly between 3-6am.
Opted not to issue a SCA now since it's so brief and right on the threshold line. Expecting sub-SCA conditions for most of the week with off and on rain chances through mid-week. Waves will remain around 1-2ft with seas of 2-3ft. Seas will build to 4-5ft on Friday, but should subside to start the weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 9 mi54 min N 8 29.89
44041 - Jamestown, VA 10 mi54 min NE 3.9G3.9 74°F 64°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 10 mi84 min WSW 6G8 84°F 58°F29.82
44072 21 mi54 min N 21G27 68°F
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 26 mi84 min SW 11G12 75°F 29.84
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 28 mi54 min NNE 23G29 59°F 60°F1 ft
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 29 mi84 min WSW 9.9G12 82°F 29.83
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 30 mi84 min 62°F29.85
44087 33 mi58 min 62°F1 ft
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 33 mi84 min SW 6G9.9 85°F 29.83
CHBV2 35 mi84 min WSW 5.1G7 76°F 29.78
44064 36 mi54 min SSW 7.8G7.8 67°F 60°F1 ft
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 36 mi84 min SSE 6G7 70°F 61°F29.85
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 38 mi84 min N 25G31 29.90
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 41 mi84 min SW 7G12 86°F 61°F29.83
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 43 mi84 min SW 7G12 85°F 29.84
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 49 mi84 min SSE 17G20 65°F 62°F29.85


Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KFAF FELKER AAF,VA 12 sm16 minENE 12G1710 smMostly Cloudy Thunderstorm 77°F52°F41%29.86
KPHF NEWPORT NEWS/WILLIAMSBURG INTL,VA 14 sm17 minNNE 16G2610 smMostly Cloudy Thunderstorm in Vicinity Lt Rain 73°F54°F50%29.91
KFYJ MIDDLE PENINSULA RGNL,VA 16 sm28 mincalm10 smMostly Cloudy64°F61°F88%29.92
KLFI LANGLEY AFB,VA 22 sm28 minN 19G3110 smPartly Cloudy79°F52°F39%29.91
Link to 5 minute data for KJGG


Wind History from JGG
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Tide / Current for Queen Creek (2 miles above entrance), York River, Virginia
   
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Queen Creek (2 miles above entrance)
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Mon -- 02:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:11 AM EDT     2.38 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:43 AM EDT     0.44 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:14 PM EDT     First Quarter
Mon -- 04:37 PM EDT     1.98 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:42 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Queen Creek (2 miles above entrance), York River, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
0.9
1
am
1.4
2
am
1.9
3
am
2.2
4
am
2.4
5
am
2.3
6
am
2
7
am
1.6
8
am
1.2
9
am
0.8
10
am
0.5
11
am
0.5
12
pm
0.6
1
pm
1
2
pm
1.4
3
pm
1.7
4
pm
1.9
5
pm
2
6
pm
1.8
7
pm
1.5
8
pm
1.1
9
pm
0.7
10
pm
0.5
11
pm
0.4



Tide / Current for Allmondsville, York River, Virginia
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Allmondsville
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Mon -- 02:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:10 AM EDT     2.83 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:46 AM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:14 PM EDT     First Quarter
Mon -- 04:36 PM EDT     2.36 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:42 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:45 PM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Allmondsville, York River, Virginia, Tide feet
12
am
1.1
1
am
1.7
2
am
2.2
3
am
2.6
4
am
2.8
5
am
2.7
6
am
2.4
7
am
2
8
am
1.4
9
am
0.9
10
am
0.6
11
am
0.5
12
pm
0.7
1
pm
1.1
2
pm
1.6
3
pm
2
4
pm
2.3
5
pm
2.3
6
pm
2.1
7
pm
1.8
8
pm
1.3
9
pm
0.9
10
pm
0.6
11
pm
0.5




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Wakefield, VA,



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