Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Goldfield, NV

DISCUSSION
Today through Next Wednesday

Not much change in the temperature forecast from the previous package as high pressure builds into the region over the next 48 hours. Temperatures will warm in response, with high temperatures some 5-10 degrees above seasonal normals today and Thursday. This combined with warm overnight lows will promote a period of moderate to major Heat Risk, with the highest heat risk in desert valleys where an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for today and Thursday.
Today will be warmer than Thursday, however both days with feature potentially dangerous heat.

Late Thursday through Saturday, an upper level trough will drop into the region, increasing the pressure gradient and thus increasing the winds. With no precipitation and afternoon humidities dropping into the single digits each day combined with these winds- prolonged dangerous fire conditions and increased fire spread potential will develop. On Thursday, HRRR shows high probabilities (80% or more)
for relative humidities below 15% and wind speeds over 20 mph across southern Nevada and western Arizona most of the afternoon. Friday and Saturday will have similar or worse conditions to Thursday, also spreading into California. Coordination with fire partners and decisions on Red Flag Warnings will occur today to ensure consistent messaging and to highlight where the highest fire danger will exist based on fuels. Outside of fire danger, impactful wind gusts over 40 MPH will be possible at times. The best chance for wind related impacts is on Saturday when NBM has high probabilities for wind gusts over 40 MPH across the Western Mojave Desert through southern Nevada and northern Mohave County. Impactful winds may start as early as Friday afternoon, especially in San Bernardino County, and marginally impactful winds are possible in southern Nevada on Thursday as a weak disturbance moves through the mean flow. Will analyze the latest hi-res model and ensemble data that becomes available today to assess wind impact potential through the first part of the weekend

As the upper trough settles into the Southwest US this weekend, falling heights will yield a stretch of below normal temperatures for late June. As opposed to our normal low 100s, ensemble analysis points to highs in the 90s Sunday and Monday, perhaps even into Tuesday. The result will be a rather pleasant start to the last week of June by our summer standards. Winds will also decrease as the upper level low sets up over the region with the probability for impactful winds dropping to 20% or less by Sunday.

AVIATION
For Harry Reid
For the 12Z Forecast Package
Winds impacting the terminal will largely follow diurnal patterns, remaining light southwesterly early this morning before shifting to the northeast. This afternoon, sustained speeds are expected to remain under 10KT, though intermittent higher gusts will be possible during peak heating, with winds favoring a southeasterly direction through early evening when diurnal winds resume.
Temperatures today will exceed 100F between 19Z-05Z, peaking at 109F around 23Z-01Z. VFR conditions with clear skies prevail.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California
For the 12Z Forecast Package
Across the region, VFR conditions with clear skies will continue the next 24 hours. Winds will largely follow typical diurnal patterns, and while speeds are expected to be 10KT or less across the area, intermittent thermally-induced gusts are possible this afternoon during peak heating. The exception will be across the Western Mojave Desert, where westerly winds become light and variable this afternoon, returning to the west and increasing to 12-15KT after sunset.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.