Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Charles City, VA

KEY MESSAGES
1) There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms across the area Sunday afternoon to late evening.

2) A cooler, somewhat unsettled pattern takes hold for early next week. Warmer and more humid conditions return for the mid to later portions of the week.

DISCUSSION
As of 340 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms across the area Sunday afternoon to late evening.

The stationary front that crossed the area overnight has stalled as a stationary front to our south. This front will push back north tonight, keeping temperatures mild overnight. This will also bring a chance of showers to to the far south near the Ablemarle Sound this evening. Overnight temps will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Southerly flow and dewpoints in the 70s returns area-wide from the warm front lifting back north on Sunday. A strong cold front will cross the area Sunday night providing a strong forcing mechanism that will be able to overcome any environmental capping. Combined with the unstable airmass, scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across the area. The latest model package continues to show MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg with steep lapse rates >6.0 C/km. Additionally, there will be more shear present that last night's storms with averages around 30 to 40 kts. Putting it all together, a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms remains over almost the entire local area. There was some collaboration with SPC about possibly upgrading to an Enhanced Risk, but after collaboration with SPC and neighboring offices, SPC has continued the Slight Risk. Cannot rule out an upgrade with future outlooks, given current model trends. The main threat with any storm is damaging winds gusts up to 60 mph+. A few discrete/supercells may also develop ahead of the main front Sunday afternoon-evening, bringing at least a low-end potential for large hail and even an isolated tornado. Finally, locally heavy rainfall may lead to isolated instances of flash flooding, especially over urban areas.
Given the wind profiles, training storms are not expected and storms will likely move fast, so any flash flooding will be isolated. WPC has expanded the Day 2 ERO to cover the eastern half of the area, excluding the Eastern Shore in a Marginal Risk of flash flooding.
The cold front moves through a majority of the area Sunday night bringing cooler/drier air and ending the threat for any severe weather. However, in typical fashion for the summer months, the front likely stalls near the coast allowing for unsettled conditions to continue into early next week.

Temperatures will increase behind the warm front overnight, with highs climbing back into the mid 90s for the area (lower 90s along the immediate coast) on Sunday. Although humidity builds back in, heat indices will likely remain below Heat Advisory criteria, but reaching the upper 90s to lower 100s Sunday afternoon. The potential for meeting Heat Advisory criteria is highest across southside Hampton Roads and into northeast North Carolina.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cooler, somewhat unsettled pattern takes hold for early next week. Warmer and more humid conditions return for the mid to later portions of the week.

An upper trough develops over the eastern half of the US early next week. In addition, the front from Sunday lingers near eastern portions of the area bringing continued chances for showers or thunderstorms into Monday across S/SE portions of the forecast area.
Rain chances/cloud cover likely expands a bit further N/NW on Tuesday. Cooler conditions are expected through at least the first half of next week with high temperatures Monday near to slightly below average, ranging from the lower 80s north to the upper 80s south (upper 70s to around 80 Eastern Shore). Temperatures may stay in the upper 70s for a majority of the area on Tuesday with the increase in cloud cover, precipitation chances, and onshore flow.
Warmer and more humid conditions return for the mid to later portions of next week as the trough begins to break down. Thursday may approach Heat Advisory criteria.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 150 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail into the early afternoon hours. Winds become southerly this morning, with occasional gusts to ~20 knots later this morning throughout the afternoon/evening.
Thunderstorms develop around or after 20z across southern and western portions of the area, spreading east throughout the afternoon/evening. Some storms may be severe with damaging wind gusts being the main threat, winds may gust in excess of 35 knots with storms. PROB30 groups have been added to all sites due to the scattered nature of the storms and uncertainties on specific timing at each site. Storms taper to rain showers late in the period, especially closer to the coast. MVFR CIGs potentially develop late in the period.

Outlook: VFR/dry conditions return to all sites by later Monday morning . Becoming more unsettled on Tuesday, with the potential for MVFR CIGs , especially at the eastern TAF sites.
Primarily dry/VFR conditions return for Wednesday through the first half of Thursday.

MARINE
As of 235 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Small Craft Advisories in effect for the Ches. Bay this evening through tomorrow morning for SE winds of 15-20kt, becoming NW early tomorrow.

Southerly flow of 5-10kt is ongoing as of early morning obs. Seas are around 2ft and waves in the bay/rivers are 1ft or less. Winds will steadily increase today ahead of a cold front, turning SSE by mid-day. By the early evening hours, winds will be up to 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt over the coastal waters and bay (~15 over the rivers). SCAs are in effect for the bay starting at 21z. Decided against SCAs for the coastal waters since winds fall a bit short of criteria and seas are only forecast to increase to 4ft. Winds overall diminish slightly to ~15kt later tonight as the front passes through the area. However, convection associated with the front may include severe wind gusts, waterspouts, and small hail. Winds become northwesterly early Monday morning behind the front and will surge back up near 20kt through mid morning. Went ahead and ran the advisories out through the second surge for simplicity's sake, and because winds will still be near advisory levels overnight.

Winds will diminish pretty quickly Monday afternoon as high pressure builds in behind the front. Remaining benign through mid week with onshore flow of 5-10kt Tuesday then turning to the south for Wednesday. Another front late in the week may again bring elevated winds Thursday and Friday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630>632-634.