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ANZ632 Chesapeake Bay From New Point Comfort To Little Creek Va- 354 Am Est Sun Dec 3 2023
.dense fog advisory in effect until 7 am est this morning...
Through 7 am..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Showers likely. Areas of dense fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Areas of dense fog early in the morning, then patchy dense fog late in the morning. Patchy dense fog early in the afternoon. Showers likely early in the morning, then a chance of showers in the late morning and afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less in the morning.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of rain after midnight.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.

ANZ600 354 Am Est Sun Dec 3 2023
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers..
a warm front will slowly lift north through the area this morning, as weak low pressure also lifts northeast along the boundary. Meanwhile, low pressure tracks across the great lakes region today, pushing a cold front across the region late today into Monday. High pressure then rebuilds over the area early this week with a second, stronger front crossing the area late Wednesday and Thursday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 030934 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 434 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2023

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will move across the region this morning, then continues northeast of the area and into the northern Atlantic this afternoon into this evening. The low will pull a cold front through the region later this evening. Dry weather is expected for tonight through Tuesday. An upper trough will swing into and across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday evening, then high pressure will build in for Wednesday night and Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 410 AM EST Sunday...

Early this morning, sfc low pressure was located over extrm SW West VA, with a warm front extending ewrd from the low through the srn portions of the CWA. As a result, visibilities have improved south of the warm front, with some patchy dense to dense fog still north of the front. Thus, have adjusted the Dense Fog Advisory until 700 am this morning, from central VA (RIC) ewrd through the Middle Peninsula and VA nrn neck, and into the Lower MD and VA ern shore. Latest radar showed rain or rain showers moving ENE across mainly wrn and nrn portions of the area. Temps were ranging from the lower to mid 50s N, to the lower to mid 60s S.

The low pressure area to our west and another developing farther ENE, will push NNE of the region this aftn into early this evening, followed by a cold frontal passage during this evening.
More widespread rain/showers will lift ENE of the region by midday, with just isolated to sctd showers possible this aftn into early this evening. Milder temps are expected again today, as highs will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Also, some clearing is expected from NW to SE later this aftn into early this evening, then becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy tonight. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s extrm NW, to the upper 40s extrm SE VA/NE NC.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 410 AM EST Sunday...

A shortwave trough will approach from the W late Mon, before tracking over the local area Mon evening. Moisture will be limited, so expect just more clouds, esply across nrn portions of the region. Highs will still be above normal Mon, ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s. Becoming clear or mostly clear Mon night with lows ranging through the 30s to around 40.
Dry/seasonable wx is expected on Tue, as high pressure builds across the region. Highs will be mainly in the lower to mid 50s.
A deeper shortwave trough will approach from the NW Tue night, bringing more clouds again and a slight chance to chance for rain showers, esply over nrn portions. Lows Tue night will range from the mid 30s to lower 40s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 415 AM EST Sunday...

That shortwave trough will swing across the region Wed into Wed evening, and could produce additional isolated or sctd showers.
Becoming somewhat breezy with NW winds Wed aftn into Wed evening, as the pressure gradient tightens on the back side of low pressure deepening well offshore. Highs Wed in the upper 40s to lower 50s, with a partly to mostly cloudy sky. High pressure will build into and over the region from Wed night into Thu evening, then slides off the Mid Atlc/SE Coast Thu night into Fri. The high will shift farther out to sea during Sat. Lows Wed night in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Highs Thu mainly in the upper 40s to around 50. Lows Thu night in the lower to mid 30s in most areas.
Increasingly milder for Fri/Sat. Highs in the mid 50s to around 60 Fri, and in the upper 50s to mid 60s Sat.

AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 130 AM EST Sunday...

IFR/LIFR CIGs and VIS will continue at all TAF sites except ECG until at least 15-16Z this morning, along with -RA or a -SHRA, until a warm front lifts north of the area. However, fog and/or IFR/LIFR CIGs may linger over the Eastern Shore (SBY) into this evening until the cold frontal passage. Only isolated or sctd showers expected from later this morning into early this evening.

Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions are expected tonight through Tue.
An upper level trough will bring clouds and maybe isolated to sctd showers Tue night into Wed evening.

MARINE
As of 310 AM EST Sunday...

A warm front continues to lift north across the region this morning.
A Marine Dense Fog Advisory continues over all local waters through through 12Z/7 AM EST Sunday, with visibility reductions below 1 NM, and occasionally as low as 1/4 NM, possible through this time. The advisory will likely be extended over northern portions of the waters through late this morning, and into early afternoon over far northern coastal zones north of Wachapreague.

Otherwise, winds were E-NE north of the front over the bay, eastern VA rivers and coastal waters north of Cape Charles, with E-SE winds over the lower James, southern Ches Bay and southern coastal waters as of 08z. The front will continue to lift north over the next few hours, with CAMs still showing winds briefly increasing to ~15 kt over the northern coastal waters as weak low pressure lifts along the front and pushes offshore through late morning. Winds gradually shift to the S-SW at 10-15 kt for all marine areas by midday into the afternoon as the front moves farther N. As noted above, the S-SW flow will also help to scour out marine fog through the morning, and expect headlines will slowly be able to be lowered from south to north through the morning.

The trailing cold front ten crosses the area late this afternoon into this evening, with winds turning W-NW post-frontal. However, given only modest cold air advection initially, expect winds linger ~10 kt tonight through the day on Monday before eventually increasing to 15-20 kt (highest over the ocean) Mon night/early Tues as a shortwave aloft slides through with stronger CAA. Most areas look to stay below SCA criteria, but a brief period of SCAs are possible across the nrn coastal waters early Tuesday. A second and stronger cold front will cross the area Wednesday afternoon and evening, with SCAs looking rather likely Wed aftn into Thursday morning as winds become 20-25 kt with gusts to ~30 kt. Seas build from 2-3 ft Mon/Tue to 4-6 ft Wed night and Thu. Waves 1-2 ft for much of the period, building to 2-4 ft Wed night and Thu.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MDZ021>025.
NC...None.
VA...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for VAZ075>078- 082>086-090-099-100-512-515>525.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ630>638- 650-652-654-656-658.

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Clay Bank
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Sun -- 01:42 AM EST     2.30 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:38 AM EST     0.48 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:06 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:59 PM EST     2.68 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:33 PM EST     0.46 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:41 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Clay Bank, York River, Virginia, Tide feet

Roane Point
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Sun -- 02:34 AM EST     2.30 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:34 AM EST     0.50 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:07 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 02:51 PM EST     2.68 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:29 PM EST     0.48 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:41 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Roane Point, York River, Virginia, Tide feet

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