Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gloucester Courthouse, VA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Dry and mild night with lows in the lower 60s.

- Above average temperatures return Saturday with highs in the upper 80s.

Afternoon weather analysis shows a strong 500mb ridge moving over much of the Mid-Atlantic and trough digging in across the four corners. At the surface, a broad low pressure system is tracking across the Great Lakes region and a 1030mb high pressure lingering off the east coast. Over the past couple of hours S to SSW winds have begun to increase as the pressure gradient from these systems tighten with wind gusts upwards of 25 mph. Temperatures as of 2 PM are ranging between the lower 60s to lower 70s across the Eastern Shore, lower 70s across the coast, and middle to upper 70s inland.
Skies remain relatively clear with some high cirrus moving across the eastern shore and some small fair weather cumulus developing across NE NC and SE VA.

Winds will lighten a bit tonight but there will still be gusts upwards of 15 mph as the pressure gradient remains in place. Skies will remain mostly clear as some additional high level clouds move through the area. Temperatures tonight will remain mild as warm air will continue to advect into the area. Lows for the night will be in the lower 60s. Saturday the high pressure will move further off shore but the pressure gradient will re-tighten ahead of an approaching cold front. Ahead of this front temperatures will warm up above average with highs in the middle to upper 80s. There is the potentials of some isolated 90 degree temperatures across the SE.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- A backdoor front drops south and west Sunday leading to a wide range of temps across the area.

- Dry weather continues through Monday.

Ahead of the backdoor cold front temperatures Saturday night will continue to be mild with lows reaching down into the lower to middle 60s. The backdoor cold front will eventually make it to our area by Sunday. There continues to remain some uncertainty on how far the front will advance. Regardless of the details, it will be cooler across the NE portions of the area and warmer SW. With some of the latest guidance that has come in temperatures across the coast are expected to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. While further inland and across the south temperatures will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s and possibly middle 80s further south and west. Temperatures Sunday night will be slightly cooler especially across the Eastern shore with their lows in the lower 50s. While across VA/NC lows will be in the middle to upper 50s. The stalled front over the are will lift Monday and warmer temperatures will return for most of the area, except possibly the Maryland Eastern Shore. Highs Monday will be in the lower to middle 80s across VA/NC and lower 70s across the northern Neck and Eastern SHore. There is also the possibility of upper 60s as highs across the Eastern Shore, However, confidence is low at this time.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 325 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Above average temperatures with possible afternoon and evening showers.

Upper air ridging will set up over Florida, while surface low pressure will move northeastward from the Central Plains early next week. The cold front associated with this low pressure system will pass through the region late Monday/early Tuesday. This front will be relatively weak, but could bring a few showers as early as Monday evening to the northern half of the CWA, with the higher PoPs (still only 30-45%) for the majority of the area on Tuesday. The front will stall over the Carolinas resulting in chance of showers and isolated storms Wednesday for the southern half of the CWA

Above average temperatures will continue, despite the weak cold front. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s (cooler on the Eastern Shore) with lows in the 50s and 60s.

AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 1250 PM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions will prevail through the 18z TAF period at all terminals. Some SCT/BKN cirrus is noted on satellite imagery streaming in from the NW. Otherwise, skies will remain mostly clear through this evening and into tonight. Generally S or SSW 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt through this evening and into tonight. Guidance shows the potential for widespread LLWS across the region tonight, as a LLJ strengthen to 50 kt. Confidence has increased to put LLWS across all TAF sites from 19/01z to 19/12z.

Outlook: VFR/dry conditions continue into the weekend. The next shot at widespread precipitation looks to be early next week.

MARINE
As of 130 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Southerly winds increase through this evening, and remain elevated through Saturday. SCAs are in effect for much of the marine area.

Latest analysis reveals broad 1025+mb high pressure lingering offshore of the mid-Atlantic/Carolina this afternoon. To the northwest, deepening low pressure was sliding east across the upper Great Lakes, with its associated cold front draped across the mid MS Valley. The preceding warm front continues to lift north across the mid-Atlantic region as of this writing, with the tightening pressure gradient out ahead of the Great Lakes low allowing for increasingly gusty SSE winds averaging 10-15 kt, with gusts to 20 kt already being observed in the lower Bay. Expect gusts to slowly increase in the bay, gradually turning SSW late this evening.
Less efficient mixing due to cool SSTs will be balanced by channeling over the bay and lower James River. Expect SW winds 15-20 kt overnight with gusts generally to 25 kt, but up to 30 kt where gradient is tightest across the northern coastal waters.

SCAs have been added for the Sound and Rappahannock Rivers to existing SCA over the Bay and lower rivers and go into effect this afternoon into this evening. Confidence in seeing sustained SCA conditions is still lower for the southern coastal waters where the pressure gradient will not be as strong. Waves in the bay will build to 2-3 ft later today, with SSE wind wave also allowing seas to increase during this period with 2-4 ft expected south of Cape Charles Light and 4-5 ft to the north.

Looking ahead, the cold front will struggle to make much progress into the local waters late Saturday into early Sunday as the pressure gradient relaxes, but 12z guidance is coming into better agreement that the mainly dry frontal boundary does finally (slowly) drop south through Sunday. Could see a bit of a surge as this occurs, but for now the surge looks to be sub- SCA, as the front gradually weakens as it drops across the area.
Nonetheless, expect winds quickly veer from SSW to NE ~10-15 kt Sunday into Sunday aftn, then gradually shifting back to the SSE Monday with another warm front lifting through the region. A trailing cold front then approaches from the west, slowly crossing into the region late Monday into Tuesday, with SCA headlines potentially being needed over the Bay late Monday. The weak front then meanders across region Tuesday night through the middle of next week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>632- 634.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 7 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ633.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ635>638.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ654.