Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bishop, CA

SHORT TERM
Today and Saturday.

Mesoanalysis early this morning showed increasing 850-700mb winds in response to a shortwave moving into northern California. This feature is weak combined with overnight de-coupling of the winds, the wind response so far has been isolated. Elevated wind speeds of 10-15 mph and isolated gusts of 20 to 25 mph were reported in southern Nevada and San Bernardino County where the jet was set up. The strongest winds were reported around Barstow, CA where terrain enhancement allowed for gusts of 30 to 35 mph to develop.
This shortwave will continue to develop and shift east today and tonight, which will bring more widespread elevated winds to the region this afternoon. The highest risk for wind impacts today will be in the Colorado River Valley where 20 to 25 mph south winds and building waves will result in hazardous boating conditions and a Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for Lake Mead and Lake Mohave. Lake Havasu should see lower winds and thus smaller waves, so the risk for boating impacts is lower and a Lake Wind Advisory is not needed. Otherwise, winds should remain below impactful levels with widespread gusts of 25 to 35 mph expected.
Isolated gusts up to 40 MPH are possible late this afternoon and evening in the Western Mojave Desert, however hourly NBM probabilities for gusts over 40 MPH are low (30%) and sporadic so not expected widespread wind impacts. The shortwave will move into central Nevada on Saturday, and with the low overhead and a weak pressure gradient, winds will be lower than today and impacts are not expected.

Temperatures today will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday as heights fall, but remain about 5 degrees above normal for this time of year. Even cooler temperatures are expected on Saturday as high temperatures cool another 4-6 degrees compared today, which would put them right around normal. No precipitation is expected with this system as the airmass will remain dry and forcing is weak.

LONG TERM
Sunday through next Friday.

A transient ridge will move over the area on Sunday, allowing temperatures to recover a few degrees from Saturday. Beyond Sunday, forecast confidence decreases as interensemble variability increases. Long term guidance shows another shortwave moving through the area early next week, with a disturbance approaching the Californian coast during the second half of the week. Discrepancies regarding the timing and evolution of these disturbances adds to forecast uncertainty regarding exact details in the long term. This uncertainty can be seen reflected in the 10+ degree spread between the 10th and 90th percentiles when looking at daily maximum temperatures. Even with all this uncertainty, confidence in normal to slightly warmer than normal temperatures in the extended period is high as the 25th percentile of the temperature distribution hovers right around normal, giving us around a 75% chance of seeing normal to warmer than normal temperatures. Dry conditions will persist into next week as we find ourselves lacking sufficient moisture and instability.

AVIATION
For Harry Reid
For the 12Z Forecast Package
South- southwest winds continue through the majority of the TAF period.
Winds will be strongest in the afternoon and early evening hours, with gusts 20-30 knots. There is the possibility of a brief period of light and variable winds this morning between 15-18z, but confidence remains low. SKC to FEW high clouds at or above 20kft through the day.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California
For the 12Z Forecast Package
Breezy south-southwest winds continue early this morning across the Mojave Desert and southern Great Basin, becoming gusty area-wide this afternoon. Gusts generally 20-30 knots, with values potentially getting up around 35 knots around KDAG. Breezy northwest winds push into central Nevada and northern Inyo County this evening behind a weak cold front. VFR conditions prevail as clouds remain at or above 15kft across the region.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.